The importance of life course research in an aging population ESRC International Centre for Life Course Studies in Society and Health UC London, Imperial, Essex, Manchester

Increasing life expectancy

Falling mortality in ‘third age’

Heart disease mortality

Lung cancer mortality

Reproductive cancer mortality

Healthy life expectancy SOURCE: ONS and Govt Actuaries Dept on 1 May

Trends in employment by socio-economic group: Great Britain, men,

Trend in economic inactivity : Intermediate occupations Healthy Ill 40% % inactive

Trend in economic inactivity : semi and non-skilled manual 40% 0 Ill Healthy % inactive

Risk of limiting long term illnesss in 1991 and unemployment 1971, 1981 Odds of LLTI

Economic status 1971, 1981 and 1991

Most unemployed men regain work by 1991

Employment history and social class 1991: % in non-manual class 1991

Risk of limiting long term illness by unemployment in 1971, allowing for subsequent labour market disadvantage

Usefulness of a Birth Cohort Study These kind of data allow us to look in far more detail at life-courses Could it be that people get into a trajectory that increases the risk of unemployment, poor health, and early exit from the labour force? If so, how early does this start?

Relationship of unemployment to father’s social class at birth Odds ratio Adj. crowding, education, region,height at 7, BSAG, parents’ heights

Unemployment 12+ months by household overcrowding in childhood Adj. Father’s class, education, region, heights, BSAG Odds ratio Persons per room

Unemployment 12+ months by social adjustment (BSAG) at 11 years Degree of maladjustment Odds ratio

Unemployment 12+ months by education Adj. Fathers class, crowding, region, BSAG, height Odds ratio

Precursors of unemployment Material circumstances in the family of origin, as indicated by father’s class at birth and overcrowding Behavioural adjustment of the child Educational attainment

Importance of precursor factors for risk of 12+ months unemployment (mutually adjusted)

Environmental determinants of unemployment: regional unemployment rates We have looked at the importance of background factors of individuals Important not to forget the environment, i.e. in this case, the local demand for labour. Regional unemployment rates had a strong effect on the risk of unemployment regardless of all other factors.

Unemployment 12+ months by standard region

“Life-course” determinants of unemployment risk Cohort studies enable us to begin to see sequences of events an unfolding processes. Any measure may be acting as an indicator rather than a “cause”. Interdependence of effects and time order are difficult to do analytical justice to.

Risk of 1 year+ unemployment by height at age 7 Adjusted for birth class, overcrowding, education, region, height, BSAG score and parents height

Family conflict by height at age 7 (1/5ths)

Risk of being in shortest 1/5 height at age 7 by paternal social class Adjusted for family conflict and crowding

Very long term influences and markers Large effect of paternal social class appears to be to an important extent the result of increased family conflict as well as material circumstances in the home The strange-looking relationship of height at age 7 to later unemployment is likely to be due to the sensitivity of child height as an indicator of both material and psycho- social conditions in early life

Independent role of unemployment in the life course process Caution against seeing everything as pre- determined in early life Take groups of study participants classified according to earlier influences Examine ‘effect’ of unemployment 1974 (age 16) to 1985 (age 27) on social circumstances at age 33 (1991) Include only those in stable employment since 1985, so we are only looking at longer term processes.

Variable definition Goldthorpe service class; Top 3/5 income distribution; Owning or purchasing home at age 33. “Socio-economic advantage score” Scored 0 (low) to 3 (high). Unemployment: none, 1-12 months, 13+ months between ages 16 and 27

Effect of unemployment duration on relationship between father’s class and adult socio-economic circumstances

Odds of least favourable socio-economic circumstances at age 33 by father’s class at birth and months of unemployment

Odds of least favourable socio-economic circumstances at age 33 by non-verbal ability at age 11 and unemployment

Changing trajectories These studies used the 1958 British Birth Cohort (NCDS) What would the patterns look like in the 1970 Cohort? What would they look like in the 1946 Cohort?

The ‘long shadow’ It is increasingly found that declines in functioning with age are related to early life conditions and processes Much economic inactivity precedes retirement age, and this will only get worse if retirement age is delayed Are the processes that increase the risk of work disability the same as those what decrease healthy life expectancy?