Fertility decline in Uzbekistan: persistent early motherhood during economic crisis David Clifford, University of Southampton

Central Asia’s demographic interest Muslim population invites comparisons with the demography of the Arab Middle East (Rashad 2000), or with Iran (Hakimian 2006) Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 Dramatic social, political and economic changes Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)

Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature ( Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)

Post-socialist fertility change Have to rely on literature on C and E European experience dramatic decreases in fertility (Sobotka 2004 Fig 7.1)

How was this fertility decline achieved? Sobotka (2004) – diversity of experience Central Europe: postponement; ‘ageing’ of fertility Low TFR1 TFR decline largely driven by tempo effects Ex-Soviet: retained early pattern of first births High TFR1, dramatic decline at higher orders (e.g. Perelli-Harris 2005-Ukraine) TFR decline reflects change in fertility quantum

Reasons for decline? Economic crisis vs. new opportunities/ values Sobotka (2004)-importance varies C Europe- impact of new opportunities Post-Soviet –impact of economic crisis Relationship between extent of crisis and extent of postponement: Severe crisis: ‘slower deconstruction of socialist greenhouse environment’ (Sobotka 2002:61)

Wages-postponement relationship (Sobotka 2004, Fig.7.11) (Uzbekistan: 81.1% decline in real wages)

TFR in Uzbekistan, Sources: UNICEF Transmonee, ORC Macro

Economic Crisis in Uzbekistan Source: UNICEF TransMonee Source: UNICEF Transmonee

post-Soviet Uzbekistan Expectation of maintained early age pattern of births during fertility decline

Data Official fertility data unreliable Surveys most helpful Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, 2002 Part of Demographic and Health Survey project Nationally Representative 5588 women, aged 15-49

Trends I.e. maintenance of early childbearing. Period: change in MAFM and MAFB Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Period: Trends in ASFR

Results Cohort: Age at First Marriage Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Cohort: Age at First Birth Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Cohort: Cumulated fertility Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

Economic crisis and fertility decline Economic crisis specifically reducing higher order births in Uzbekistan First order births not affected by postponement a strategy for uncertainty reduction? ‘impetus for parenthood the greatest amongst those whose alternative pathways for reducing uncertainty are blocked’ - Friedman et al (1994) Women with no prospect of pursuing education or employment may choose to have children early (Sobotka 2002, Perelli- Harris 2005)

Too simplistic to consider economic crisis alone.. Conservative attitudes; re-emergence of Islam? May have role to play in persistence of early motherhood; less so in stopping behaviour

An unfair comparison..?..with post-socialist change in C and E Europe? At time of independence C Asia –high fertility Vs C and E Europe - low fertility Different culture, history, level of development On the other hand, despite these differences.. post-Soviet countries have tended to maintain early age pattern of first birth Well documented (Perelli-Harris 2005, Steshenko 2000 – Ukraine, Bulgaru et al – Moldova, Ivanov and Echenique (2000) – Russia) Specifically those countries most affected by economic crisis

Trends I.e. maintanance of early childbearing. Period: change in MAFM and MAFB Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

MAFB in Central and Eastern Europe FSU

Just another developing country transition? Not an unusual pattern of fertility decline Just another developing country experiencing decline? Substantive reasons to doubt it, particularly lack of modernisation ‘Gendered’ post-socialist transition Declines in education Mason (1997)- different fertility declines have different causes. Different stories of change

References Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum. 14(3): Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88 Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opara O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp Friedman, D, Hechter M, et al. (1994). A theory of the value of children Demography 31(3): Hakimian, H (2006) From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s. Development and Change 37(3): Ivanov, S and Echenique V (2000) Demographic Situation and Mortality Trends in Russia. in T. Kučera, O Kučerová, O Opara and E Schaich (eds). New demographic faces of Europe: the changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Springer. Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4): Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1): Rashad, H (2000) Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: a New Perspective Journal of Population Research 17(1): Sobotka, T (2002) Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries. Population Research Centre Working Paper Series Sobotka, T (2004) Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Dutch University Press. UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.

How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 1989 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)

How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 2000 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)