Driving Systemic Change … and Using Deliberative Dialogues to Do It! Leadership Austin - Feb 19, 2008 Susan Dawson

Agenda Why We’re Here A Little About the E 3 Alliance Alignment Activities Data Analysis and Research Community Engagement –Using a dialogues process Blueprint for Change

Central Texas High” SeniorClass “Central Texas High” Senior Class 157 Students 157 Students

Central Texas High” Freshman Class “Central Texas High” Freshman Class 314 Students

Central Texas High” SeniorClass “Central Texas High” Senior Class 157 Students X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X ? X X X X X X ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? 120? Students

Why Do We Care?

Overall, too few students  Graduate high school  Go to college, and  Get a post-secondary degree To meet the needs of our region in a globally competitive economy

“The Big Disconnect” Time Performance Competitive Gap Needs Gap 2006 Global Economy Other Nations Education EC-10

Low skills, Low Touch High skills, High Touch High skills, Low Touch Low skills, High Touch …And Workforce Needs are Shifting 90% of fastest growing jobs require some post-secondary education 2/3 of new jobs in the next decade need at least a Bachelors Degree In raw #s, fastest growth jobs are high touch, lower skill Human Touch (Interaction) Required Skill/Education Required Source: US Census Data EC-9

Impacts on Each Student are Huge Advanced degrees earn about 3x more than non high school grads. $80,600 $28,500 Source: US Census Bureau Current Population Survey, March 2005 Higher degree = higher growth potential Age Group EC-8

Economic Benefits to “Closing the Gaps” are Huge Cumulative Additional Output = $1.897 trillion by 2030 Over 1,000,000 new jobs for the State Central Texas MSA: –$41B in increased spending –$9.7B increase in personal income –85,250 permanent new jobs Source: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by the Perryman Group, 2007 EC-11

What is the E 3 Alliance? A catalyst for change in Central Texas and in regions across the state Building a research-based regional blueprint to align our education systems to better fulfill the potential of every citizen and in turn, increase economic outcomes.

History Born out of community leaders discussion at AARO – not designed as a P-16 Council  Birth to Economic Prosperity Built around other successful regional approaches to complex infrastructure issues Leverage “lessons learned” and models from other regions around U.S. Housed at Austin Community College Formally launched May 1, 2006

St. David’s CEO Earl Maxwell St. David’s CEO Earl Maxwell ACC President Stephen Kinslow ACC President Stephen Kinslow Region XIII ESC Executive Director Pat Pringle Region XIII ESC Executive Director Pat Pringle United Way President & CPO David Balch United Way President & CPO David Balch CommuniCard CEO Sylvia Acevedo CommuniCard CEO Sylvia Acevedo Winstead PC Founding Partner Pete Winstead Winstead PC Founding Partner Pete Winstead UT Austin Vice President Gregory Vincent UT Austin Vice President Gregory Vincent RRISD Superintendent Jesus Chavez RRISD Superintendent Jesus Chavez UT System- IPSI Executive Director Marina Walne UT System- IPSI Executive Director Marina Walne AARO Higher Ed Chair Ed Sharpe AARO Higher Ed Chair Ed Sharpe TX State Univ. President Denise Trauth TX State Univ. President Denise Trauth City of Austin Asst. City Manager Michael McDonald City of Austin Asst. City Manager Michael McDonald 7 Colleges: UT Texas State ACC Concordia Huston-Tillotson St. Edward’s Southwestern 7 Districts: Austin Bastrop Eanes Manor Pflugerville Round Rock San Marcos Business Leaders: AARO Opportunity Austin Governance Structure

2015 More reach their potentialMore reach their potential Higher wage earnersHigher wage earners Stronger economyStronger economy 2008 E 3 Alliance Model for Change Track Two: Community Engagement Track One: Data Evaluation & Research Track Three: Systemic Alignment From Information to Action Bridging disconnects; Overcoming barriers; Aligning resources and practices

Industry Alignment: Why Nursing? Huge demand; large supply; pipeline in the middle not meeting the need Meets criteria from communities: prepare our students for success in real life Industry partners at the table and willing to work (St. David’s, Seton, others) Infrastructure to collaborate: Health Industry Steering Committee (HISC) Some funding available through WorkSource (local workforce board)

Fasting Growing PS-Degree-Required- Occupations in Central Texas Food Prep, Food Svc, Retail Source: TWC & Sustainability Indicators Project = Annual Degrees Awarded across ACC, Texas State, UT Austin Note: Nurses need to pass NCLEX in order to receive RN licensure. In addition, new nursing programs + expansion will likely bring ADN, BSN prepared graduates up to 550 a year by 2012 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Interviews with Higher Ed Departments WFD-2.08 Fastest growing occupations, but do not require PS Degree

Purpose of NAAM (Nursing Articulation and Alignment Models) Task Force: Map the Central Texas Nursing Workforce and Education Landscape Identify problem areas that hinder region’s capacity to train more nurses Explore best practices models Work with partners to prioritize changes, select optimal model(s) for the region Implement best models in nursing and other industries

CT Nursing Program Capacity Limitations Lack of faculty –Disparities in faculty versus nurse practitioner salaries Clinical rotation space appropriate for learning objectives at regional healthcare facilities Insufficient financial support for students, leading to attrition Lack of seamless transition High School-ADN/BSN Inefficient articulation models for attaining advanced degrees Lack of incentives for practitioners to continue education Source: Interviews and requests for information from both ACC and UTASON.

Example Barrier: Nurse Faculty vs. Practitioner Salary Disparities At least 50% of all full- time faculty earn less than $60,000 A Master’s prepared nurse is the minimum requirement for teaching at a community college. MSN’s can earn between $60,000- $85,000 a year as a practitioner Regionally, we do not have a defined education track in our advanced degree programs. This may change soon. Source: Institutional data reported to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Dr. Chris Fowler

Moving Forward in 2008 Implementing recommendations for program expansion, more seamless transitions Working with UT, BON on Faculty Acceleration Model Stronger articulations between TS, Concordia, UT and ACC, including innovative models Investigate regional simulation center Better data collection; strengthening high school pathways Bilingual Student Recruiting and Retention Map to engineering, STEM

2015 More reach their potentialMore reach their potential Higher wage earnersHigher wage earners Stronger economyStronger economy 2008 E 3 Alliance Model for Change Track Two: Community Engagement Track One: Data Evaluation & Research Track Three: Systemic Alignment From Information to Action Using Information to Drive Action

The Demographics of Change

Source: TEA and AEIS Reports Disproportionate Growth Among Student Populations

-40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% Community Type Growth Rate Major Urban Major Suburban Other Central City Other Central City Suburban Independent Town Non-Metro: Fast-Growing Non-Metro: Stable Rural UrbanSmall TownSuburbanRural TEA Snapshot; % Growth over 4 year period District Type & Rate of Growth Manor Austin Round Rock Elgin Hutto Eanes Prairie Lea Bastrop Leander ThrallGeorgetown Fredericksburg Lago Vista LulingSan Marcos DM-4

Economically Disadvantaged: Where we’ve Been… Source: TEA, AEIS Reports DM-8 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

Where We are Now… Source: TEA, AEIS Reports DM-9 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

Early Childhood Education

Travis & Williamson See Huge Population Increase in Children 0-5 Source: The Anne E. Casey Foundation; Retrieved from Based on the US 2000 Census and US 2005 Estimate. ECE-8.-08

Early Childhood Service Comparisons Measure BastropHaysTravisWilliamsonTexas Number of NAEYC Accredited Programs Number of Children Served by NAEYC Accredited Programs , ,987 Ratio of Children Served by NAEYC Accredited Programs to Number of Children, Age :57.501:41.401:11.601:31.201:30.7 (Estimated; Census 2005) Number of Licensed Child Care Centers ,017 Number of Reported Licensed Child Care Slots 2,8324,34238,71917,948866,501 Ratio of Licensed Care Slots to Children, Age :01.601:01.901:01.801:01.401:02.1 (Estimated; Census 2005) Number of Licensed Child Care Facilities (All types) ,509 Number of Registered Family Child Care Homes Number of Head Start Programs Number of Early Head Start Programs Number of Public Pre-K Programs ,531 Source: Early Childhood Atlas Mississippi State June 2007 retrieved from ECE-6

About 72% of Eligible 3-4 Year-olds Enroll in Public Pre-K Rates vary widely across districts and depend on the availability of transportation and full versus half-day Pre-K programs Source: TEA 05-0 and AEIS Reports ECE-7.08

K-12: Improvements and Gaps

Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc Report Computed at Panel Recommendation SSI – Passing at 1 st or 2 nd Administration K12-7 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Central Texas Gaps: 5 th Grade TAKS

Central Texas Gaps: 8 th Grade TAKS TAKS ReadingTAKS Math Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc Report K12-10 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Percent Passing SSI – Passing at 1st or 2nd Administration

TAKS Gaps Vary Among Districts AG-3.08 Source: TEA, AEIS Reports Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Note: Gaps based on difference between White student performance and un- weighted average of Black and Hispanic student performance

Source: TEA, AEIS Reports Gaps Vary Even in Districts with Common Demographics AG-5 Note: Gaps based on difference between White student performance and un- weighted average of Black and Hispanic student performance Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

Large Gender Differences in Graduation Rates Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Source: TEA, AEIS Reports

Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc ReportCR-6 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Ethnic Minorities Score Far Lower on Entrance Exams

College Readiness Class of 2007 * TAKS only, doesn’t include ACT/SAT Prepared by Greater Austin Chamber TAKS, SAT & ACT COMBINED RESULTS Central Texas Districts College Ready: English Language Arts College Ready: Math College Ready: Both Subjects (ESTIMATED) Austin48%54%39% Bastrop33%44%23% Dripping Springs74%75%64% Eanes83%87%79% Georgetown44%*58%*35%* Hays37%*48%*27%* Hutto46%50%31% Manor34%*47%*19%* Pflugerville42%*53%*29%* Round Rock65%67%55% Weighted Average 52%59%43%

Some Special Concerns

Teacher Turnover is High Everywhere Source: Dr. Ed Fuller, School of Education, University of Texas at Austin Percent of Student Body that is Economically Disadvantaged

TEA Ad Hoc Request Passing Rates are Worse in Math in Almost all Grades and Districts MS-2.08 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved Note: Gaps represent unweighted averages

“Qualified” Math Teachers not at Schools with Highest Needs Note: “Qualified” defined as teachers certified in subject, teaching in-field Source: Dr. Ed Fuller, School of Education, University of Texas at Austin MS-4.08

Student Enrollment Drop Outs 9th Grade “Bubble” Source: TEA, AEIS Reports Pre-K Not Attending Students fail TAKS in high numbers yet aren’t retained DO-2 Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

What’s the % of Central Students who Drop Out? NameRateDefinition Annual Drop Out Rate (9 th -12 th ) 2.8% % enrolled students reported as drop outs during a given year or set of years Longitudinal Drop Out Rate (9 th -12 th ) 8.1% % students reported dropped out 9 th -12th Completion Rate I 90.2%* % of Sr. class who graduate or continue in school (no GED) 2006 Graduation Rate81.5%* % of Sr. class who graduate on time Cumulative Promotion Index 60% Probability of graduation using Census projections Attrition Rate 32% % students leaving public school 9 th -12 th based on total enrollment numbers

Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs A conservative estimate of the cost to Central Texas of a single class year of drop outs is: A: A decked-out Mercedes B: Annual budget of the UT Athletic Dept. C: The cost of the Long Center D: Total gross of Celine Dion’s Las Vegas Show

A conservative estimate of the cost to Central Texas of a single class year of drop outs is: Answer D. is correct Celine grossed $400M over the life of her Vegas Show. We could buy almost FIVE Long Centers for the cost of one year’s worth of drop outs. $425 million

Post Secondary Education

EC-3.08

Closing the Gaps to College As Goes the Hispanic Population, so Goes the State – and it’s not going! Source: THECB Closing the Gaps by 2015: 2007 Progress Report, July 2007

College Enrollment of Central Texas Entering Freshmen Source: THECB Aggregated Data Request and publicly available data HE-6

CT Higher Education Estimated Enrollment Projections Higher Education Enrollments Fall 2006 Estimated Enrollment* Projection for 2015** ACC Closing the Gaps Update – Spring ,00039,090 Concordia Estimate from President’s Office 1,3002,600 Huston-Tillotson*** Estimate from President’s Office 7001,200 St. Edward’s Estimate from President’s Office 5,2006,000 Southwestern Not intended to change 1,300 Texas State San Marcos and Round Rock Institutional Estimate 27,50035,900 UT Austin ,70052,588 Total Capacity / Potential Capacity118,700 ~ 138,680 For “Closing the Gaps”, need ~40,000 new students in higher education in Central Texas by 2015 Gain: ~19,980 Gap: ~ 20,000 * IPEDS Database, U.S. Department of Education ** Self-reported; all highly dependent on factors such as bond $ *** Only CT Higher Ed institution currently operating under capacity MA-3

6 Year Graduation Rates Undergraduate Enrollment Percent of Starting Undergraduates who Graduate Rate including Transfers Out Graduating Concordia University 1, %? Huston-Tillotson University %? Southwestern University 1, %? St. Edward’s University 4, %? Texas State University 23,600 46%53% University of Texas 37,000 74%74.8% Austin Community College 33, %* Information self-reported by institution, graduation rate from US Dept. of Ed. Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System (Privates), & THECB (Publics) Year Graduation Rate * ACC rate includes all students; transfers to 4 year degrees

Economically-Disadvantaged Districts Have Lower College Graduation Rates Source: THECB Aggregate Data Request GR-9 Leander

Degrees Don’t Match Industry Need 350 off a total of 4,129 Central Texas students graduating with Baccalaureate degrees from CT public institutions granted degrees in key STEM fields (97-99 entering Cohort) THECB: Aggregate Data Request

2015 More reach their potentialMore reach their potential Higher wage earnersHigher wage earners Stronger economyStronger economy 2008 E 3 Alliance Model for Change Track Two: Community Engagement Track One: Data Evaluation & Research Track Three: Systemic Alignment From Information to Action Building Community Will for Change

Community Engagement Strategies Breadth of Exposure Depth of Understanding Piercing the Cultural Bubble 1:1, Group Outreach Media Campaigns Blogs, Newsletters

Education is the key to economic prosperity  Three consistent messages: 1.Graduate high school = +$1M in your lifetime 2.Graduate college = +$2M in your lifetime 3.Speak two languages = more opportunity, better job  Every place people live, work and play Piercing the Cultural Bubble ~ Para Una Vida Buena ~ Termine la secundaria y gane un millón de dólares en su vida. Gane otro millón de dólares al graduar del colegio. Aprende ingles bien pero no pierdas tu español. Tendrás mas oportunidades y podrás ganar mas dinero.

6 communities: Austin, Bastrop, Eanes, Manor, Round Rock, San Marcos Over 600 people across the region including parents, professionals, retirees, district staff (admin and faculty) Partnership with Texas Forums and Austin Voices, based on Kettering Foundation model

Multi-night format Detailed Discussion Guides Based on objective, local data 120 trained moderators Actively recruited diverse views Process to uncover common values Meant to build capacity, not just action

What We Heard… “I’ve been in this district and this community for 30 years, and never seen excitement like this. I think we finally have the opportunity to make the changes we need to make.” “We need to not wait for permission anymore.” “The excitement in the room is amazing. I’ve never seen broad segments of the community and educators working together like this before.” “The biggest thing about these meetings is the empowerment. I just saw a notice and walked into the Dialogues and felt listened to – I was given the power to speak and be part of the process. That’s what will truly make the difference; when ALL of our community feels empowered like that.” “We are not trying to build another program; we are trying to build a culture.”

Community Action Plans Central Texas Regional Strategies and Plans Austin Eanes/ Westbank Bastrop Manor Round Rock San Marcos

Themes for the Blueprint 1.Prepare our students for success in real life 2.We can break the rules and be bold – don’t be held back by perceived constraints 3.Relationships between schools, parents, and communities are critical for success and need to be the center of any change effort, not on the margins 4.We can use our resources better than we do now 5.Get on the same page and measure with transparent leading indicators

Did it Work? 1.People learned and care about the issue 2.Dialogues were complex and nuanced 3.The small groups became quite cohesive 4.The process did not spin out of control 5. Superintendents have been pleased with the input they have received 6.People taking part are committed to change beyond the Dialogues process

2015 More reach their potentialMore reach their potential Higher wage earnersHigher wage earners Stronger economyStronger economy 2008 E 3 Alliance Model for Change Track Two: Community Engagement Track One: Data Evaluation & Research Track Three: Systemic Alignment From Information to Action Blueprint for Change

What’s the Problem? Institutions are disconnected horizontally Learning is rarely articulated vertically Great teachers are key – but not well paid, not incented to perform, not assigned where needed, and not staying in the field Data often doesn’t exist to understand where the true leverage points and bottlenecks are Accountability here to stay – but as implemented is complex and creates unintended consequences

What’s the Problem? Culture & bureaucracy is averse to change Parents understand “my kid” but not implications of “all our kids” (scale) Most citizens don’t understand the implications of demographic changes Parents don’t support academic rigor, or understand college readiness Too many students get “lost” in the system Secondary model was created 100 years ago to meet the needs of an industrial economy

20,010 by 2010 Children enter Kindergarten school ready 5 th grade mastery of reading & math Higher Education increase completion by 15,000 by 2015 Students set the standard in math & science Students graduate and are prepared to succeed Achievement Gaps close as performance improves CT world-renowned in target fields English Language Learners succeed in education Central Texas as a Community works with regional educators to prepare all children to succeed in life Schools foster a culture of learning through high expectations and strong leadership Central Texas Education Blueprint for Change Goals Continuum = Goals Derived Directly from E 3 or Partner Organization Research

What We are Undertaking: Massive systemic change with no authority to make it happen

2015 More reach their potentialMore reach their potential Higher wage earnersHigher wage earners Stronger economyStronger economy Blueprint for Change (2008) Track 2: Community Engagement Track 1: Data Evaluation & Research Track 3: Systemic Alignment We Must Drive Systemic Change in Education For more information visit our website