Tornados and Climate Change Michael Pateman And Drew Vankat
Introduction Investigation of tornadic frequency and magnitude in the United States in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and US climate change
Hypothesis Global warming, along with increased El Nino and La Nina cycles mean more plentiful and powerful tornadoes But…What role does technology play in increased detection?
Research Relevance If a relationship with climate cycles can be found, perhaps emergency funding can be set aside in advance for victims Findings can be translated to other weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, flooding, or hurricanes Authorities can take necessary precautions to minimize economic and human losses Provide a more convincing argument for the need to rethink the way we treat our environment.
What is a tornado? An intense, rotating column of air extending from the base of a thunderstorm cloud to the ground.
ENSO The ENSO (El Nino/ Southern Oscillation) cycle refers to the coherent, large-scale fluctuation of ocean temperatures, rainfall, atmospheric circulation, vertical motion and air pressure across the tropical Pacific.
What is El Nino? A disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific Development of abnormally warm sea surface temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific Consequences can include increased rainfall in some areas and extreme drought in others
What is La Nina? Characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific USA: warmer southwest winters, colder Northwest
Materials and methods Data retrieved on tornado and ENSO activity Downloaded into Excel, Statview, and Cricket Graph
Tornado Frequency by Decade Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.1096 Texas-Ohio p=.0719 Nebraska-Ohio p=.0719
Frequency of Tornadoes in El-Nino Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.4902 Texas-Ohio p=.1837 Texas-USA p=.0170 Nebraska-Ohio p=1983 Nebraska-USA p=.0785 Ohio-USA p=.1223
Tornado Frequency in non-El-Nino Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.1096 Texas-Ohio p=.1615 Texas-USA p=.0719 Nebraska-Ohio p=.3173 Nebraska-USA p=.2301 Ohio-USA p=.0719
Tornado Frequency in La Nina Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.0422 Texas-Ohio p=.1474 Texas-USA p=.0376 Nebraska-Ohio p=.1117 Nebraska-USA p=.0751 Ohio-USA p=.0438
Tornado Frequency in non-La-Nina Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.0719 Texas-Ohio p=.0719 Texas-USA p=.0455 Nebraska-Ohio p=.1096 Nebraska-USA p=.0719 Ohio-USA p=.0719
Texas Tornado Frequency
Nebraska Tornado Frequency
Ohio Tornado Frequency
Data win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Stormshttp://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi- win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms All Tornado Data downloaded from this site.
Tentative conclusions Overall increase in tornado frequency P-values indicate little relationship in frequency for El-Nino years P-Values indicate a relationship in frequency for La-Nina years
Still To Come… Spearman Rank Correlations for tornado frequency per year in each state Analyze magnitude
Future Research Incorporate climate change and global warming Any questions or suggestions?