Demographics and The Impact on Investment Opportunities Demographics and The Impact on Investment Opportunities Nebraska Chartered Financial Analysts Society.

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Presentation transcript:

Demographics and The Impact on Investment Opportunities Demographics and The Impact on Investment Opportunities Nebraska Chartered Financial Analysts Society Anthony’s Omaha, Nebraska Richard F. Hokenson Hokenson & Company May 24, 2011

1 Hokenson & Company is an independent consulting firm specializing in the application of demographics to economic, industry and financial market forecasting. Prior to founding Hokenson & Company in May 2002, Richard Hokenson was the Chief Economist for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where he pioneered the application of demographics to economic and financial market forecasting. Following the merger with Credit Suisse First Boston in November 2000, he was made the Director of their Global Demographics Project where he continued his responsibility for analysis and forecasting of global demographic trends and their associated economic and investment implications.

Agree/Disagree? “Our teeming population is the strongest evidence our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us from its natural elements. Our wants grow more and more keen and our complaints more bitter in all mouths, while nature fails in affording us our usual sustenance…”

The Speed of Aging: Developed Countries

Speed of Aging: Developing Countries

Demographics and Destiny

Maximum Effective Capital Gains Tax Rate versus Percentage of Young Taxpayers

Population Trends in The Developed World

8 The Developed World Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

9 Japan and Europe

10 Japan Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

11 Japan: Old and Young as Percent of Population

12 Western Europe Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

Aging in the European Union

14 The American “Exception”

15 Total Fertility Rate for Selected Regions and Countries: 2010

Legal Immigration and Naturalizations

17 Total Population: US versus Eurozone

United States : Number of Entry-Level Workers

19 The United States Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

Annualized Growth in Total and Married Couple Households

21 Social (In)Security?

22 United States: Population in Millions (2010)

23 United States: Population in Millions (2050)

The Developing World with a focus on BRIC BrazilRussia IndiaChina

Russian Federation: Life Expectancy at Birth

Russian Federation: Total Population:

Russian Federation : Number of Entry-Level Workers

China Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

China: Number of Entry-Level Workers

The Aging Index: China versus the US

China: Six Brides for Seven Brothers (Sex Ratio at Birth by Birth Order)

India Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

India: Number of Entry-Level Workers

Brazil Population Change by Age Groups in Millions:

Brazil - The Aging Index:

Brazil : Number of Entry-Level Workers

37 The Era of Low Interest Rates has only just started or How I learned to stop worrying about budget deficits

Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP

U.S. Current Dollar GDP (Year-ago Change (bars) and Smoothed 10-Year Change (line))

U.S. Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP (Annual Rate of Change from same quarter 10 years ago)

U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Labor Force

U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Forecasted Labor Force

Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Historical and Forecasted Growth in Current Dollar GDP

Important Changes in the Financial Arrangements of Households

U.S. Households with more MONEY than TIME (Number of U.S. Families with Two or More Earners)

U.S. Households with more TIME than MONEY (Number of U.S. Families with One Earner)

47 Suggested Readings and References Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare by Richard Easterlin The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fisher The Feminine Mystique by Betty Friedan The Age of Discontinuity by Peter Drucker Population and Development Review Richard F. Hokenson (609)