Democracy in times of crisis: people versus politics Prepared for the conference ‘A Struggle for Peace’ Kristof Jacobs 8/2/2014

Outline Introduction ‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ What’s going on -The crisis and democracy -The crisis and elections -The crisis and referendums -The crisis and democratic innovations Conclusion: legitimacy in times of crisis

Introduction Political scientists are like goldfish

‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ An ‘[e]conomic crisis represents one of the most common threats to democratic stability’ (Diamond and Linz, 1989) Economic development = good for democracy Economic growth = shielded from democratic recessions/breakdowns Great Depression… So In 2008 I got a bit worried… What if this is true?

‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ ‘Democracy under duress’ + many democracies remain ‘highly vulnerable to precarious economies’ (Puddington, 2011,2012) Crisis is an ‘opportunity’ but really ‘social costs of the economic downturn are a challenge to political stability’ (Tommasoli, 2009) The regress of democracies ‘cannot be dismissed lightly’ (Wnuk-Lipinski, 2012)

‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ This time is different? Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009: nah But it actually may well be different: Unemployment less impact Economic policy is not ‘ beggar thy neighbour’ (international response) Austerity is bad, but only in second phase emphasis on austerity

‘Crisis = killer’ versus ‘this time is different’ Cuasal processes: 1. Weimar Logic Negative effects of economic recession (unemployment, inequality,…) Support for government plummets Demand for ‘strong’ leadership (often under the guise of ‘technocracy’) Strengthens authoritarian parties and politicians (Hungary, Greece) 2. Progressive logic Negative effects of economic recession (unemployment, inequality,…) = loss in output legitimacy However, in democracies legitimacy is in itself a crucial political resource Flaws need to be fixed Strengthens reformist politicians (e.g. Input legitimacy)

What’s going on: The crisis and democracy

Only four countries experienced full-scale democratic breakdown Poor countries only experienced breakdowns/erosions (Weimar logic) Richer countries experienced erosions but also improvements! (Progressive logic) On top of that richer countries saw a lot of largely symbolical reforms reducing the size of the parliament

What’s going on: The crisis and democracy Only four countries experienced full-scale democratic breakdown Poor countries only experienced breakdowns/erosions (Weimar logic) Richer countries experienced erosions but also improvements! (Progressive logic) On top of that richer countries saw a lot of largely symbolical reforms reducing the size of the parliament

What’s going on: The crisis and elections Now let’s move to richer, established democracies: Expectation 1: crisis is bad for governments Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties

What’s going on: The crisis and elections Now let’s move to richer, established democracies: Expectation 1: crisis is bad for governments The available evidence so far indeed suggests that governments are increasingly short-lived

What’s going on: The crisis and elections Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties

What’s going on: The crisis and elections Expectation 2: crisis is good for populist parties Good for ‘outsider’ parties – but in some electoral systems no outsiders possible! If no outsiders available: turnout drops significantly Those who do not vote lose representation and are ignored by politicians: very dumb indeed

What’s going on: The crisis and referendums If there is a loss of output legitimicay… why not try to balance it by increasing the input of citizens? E.g. through referendums 1.Because politicians believe it is the best thing to do (principled)

What’s going on: The crisis and referendums If there is a loss of output legitimicay, why not try to balance it by increasing the input of citizens? 1.Because politicians believe it is the best thing to do (principled) 2.Because it makes them co-responsible for the budget cuts (cynical)

What’s going on: The crisis and referendums 3.Because it increases the bargaining position of the government vis-a-vis external creditors (Iceland 2010 and 2012) (cunning) (

What’s going on: The crisis and democratic innovations More referendums and expanding referendum legislation indeed. But citizen involvement could also be in a more ‘innovative way’: Direct involvement in decision-making process (Iceland, Ireland, Estonia) ‘Pots and pans’ revolution Government resigned – opposition wins elections Constitutional convention (after a lot of difficulties) 25 members: draft new constitution: ‘crowdsourcing the constitution’

Conclusion: Legitimacy in times of crisis 1. Democracy Goldfish… well this time is actually different: Most democracies actually managed to survive crisis quite well 2. Elections Populist threat is overblown Governments suffered though… Elections = payback time

Conclusion: Legitimacy in times of crisis 3. Referendums New experiments with citizen participation and referendums: More but not merrier? 4. Democratic innovations Prudent steps… If politicians take the people seriously, people will take politicians seriously Legitimacy is a tricky issue, but never waste a good crisis So far, it’s been a fairly good crisis