Societal Impacts of Weather and Climate at NCAR July 27, 2005 Susi Moser, ISSE Jeff Lazo, RAL, ISSE Presentation to the NCAR Executive Committee and Strategic Plan Writing Team

NCAR Mission Historically… “Science in the service of society.” The 2001 Strategic Plan “NCAR’s work serves to inform public decision making with sound science—at local, regional, and global levels…” “…address scientific questions of critical importance to society.” “… and to foster the transfer of knowledge and technology for the betterment of life on Earth.”

Strategic Goal 4 Develop the societal benefits from atmospheric and related sciences by performing stakeholder-relevant research on the interactions between society and the environment; and transferring the resultant scientific information, technologies, and decision-support systems to interested public and private sector organizations.

“Science for the Benefit of Society” – What does that REALLY mean? SCIENCEBENEFITSOCIETY Increasing demand for societal accountability Setting/refining the research agenda by users, funders Use-inspired science, assessmts Increasing interdisciplinarity What constitutes a “benefit” (service)? - Increased awareness, understanding - Increased preparedness - Reduced neg. impacts * reduced vulnerability * increased response capacity/adaptation - Increased benef. impacts - Better decision support - Enabling actions For which sectors, communities, regions, individuals? At what scale? Potential trade- offs? Ethics Communi- cation Tech transfer Science- practice (dm, policy) interface Relevance Credibility Legitimacy Efficacy

“Science for the Benefit of Society” Does not happen efficiently or effectively on its own Can be improved/facilitated through specific research on these science-benefit- society dynamics Will be realized through improved interactions among researchers internally and enhanced relations externally

Societal Impacts of Weather and Climate Societal stress from atmospheric phenomena: Weather extremes in current and future climate “Regime changes” with- out historical precedent Net “impacts” result from: -the atmospheric stressor affecting “people and things at risk” -the losses incurred and -the societal response (reactive and anticipatory)

Societal Impacts of Weather 4. Develop the societal benefits from atmospheric and related sciences by performing stakeholder-relevant research on the interactions between society and the environment; and transferring the resultant scientific information, technologies, and decision-support systems to interested public and private sector organizations. This encompasses study and identification of societal needs for scientific information; design and implementation of research and development programs that address specific needs; and assessment of weather and climate impacts, including the development of methods and tools.

Societal Impacts Research FOCUS ON WEATHER INFORMATION communication –e.g. probabilistic forecasts perception and understanding –e.g., the cone versus the line –e.g., mental models and warning communications use –e.g., decision making across multiple time scales by diverse decision makers value –e.g. OUSSSA –e.g. household valuation study –e.g. hurricane forecast value study

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including: Development of a new generation of weather- related decision support systems for aviation, surface transportation, homeland security, and other business and government sectors.

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including: Development of a new generation of weather- related decision support systems for several economic sectors including aviation, surface transportation, homeland security, hydrology, energy, and other business and government sectors. Research Applications Laboratory

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including:  Initiation of new summer institutes designed to gather leading experts, young faculty, and students to define research problems and agendas, conduct research programs and experiments, and/or synthesize and summarize the state of knowledge on selected topics.

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including:  Initiation of new summer institutes designed to gather leading experts, young faculty, and students to define social science and economic research problems and agendas, conduct research programs and experiments, and/or synthesize and summarize the state of knowledge on selected topics. Methods Workshop (WAS*IS) Hurricane Forecast Socio-Economic Working Group THORPEX SEA Workshop

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including: Development of a human systems model component for CCSM Development of new means of characterizing and explaining uncertainty in climate simulations and other model projections Initiation of a new climate forum that gathers policy-and decision-makers with climate scientists to discuss the current state of understanding about climate change, exchange views, and identify important questions and research topics. Development of new climate services and information products for selected stakeholders and audiences.

Societal Impacts of Weather NCAR aims to achieve a number of specific objectives by 2010, including: Development of a human systems model component for CCSM Development of new means of characterizing and explaining uncertainty in climate simulations and other model projections Initiation of a new climate forum that gathers policy-and decision-makers with climate scientists to discuss the current state of understanding about climate change, exchange views, and identify important questions and research topics. Development of new climate services and information products for selected stakeholders and audiences. Please add weather

Societal Impacts Program Integrating societal impacts into: –THORPEX SEA –STEP –USWRP Collaborative Program on The Societal and Economic Benefits of Weather Information (aka Societal Impacts Program) funded through end of FY07

Societal Impacts of Climate Change Climate and weather stresses on society will increase as climate change accelerates –What makes societal systems vulnerable? –What increases society’s adaptive capacity? –Where are thresholds to societal adaptability? –How will the responses to impacts accelerate or slow down climate change?

Societal Impacts of Climate Change The demand for relevant scientific information in support of decision- making will increase in all climate-sensitive sectors –What, when, in what form do decision-makers need scientific information? –How can mutual interactions, trust, and benefits be increased? Science Decision- making Credibility Legitimacy Usefulness Relevance Compatibility Accessibility Receptivity Efficacy

Societal Impacts of Climate Change The sustainability transition requires a significant role of (atmospheric) science and technology and understanding of human dynamics –How will climate change make the transition to a more sustainable society more or less difficult or expensive? –How can better climate (impacts) science facilitate this transition?

Conclusions The relevance of weather and climate impacts science will only grow in the future [with or without climate change] The realize NCAR’s mission of science benefiting society, the dynamic interactions between science and practice have to become a central scientific focus Such research will also help NCAR demonstrate the value of its weather and climate research and technology development to its funders

Conclusions (cont.) Back to Strategic Goal 4: Edits to the specific objectives by 2010 –Development of a new generation of weather- and climate-related decision-support systems for … –Development of a human systems model component for CCSM, as well as advancement in the underlying human dimensions science –Development of new means of characterizing and explaining uncertainty in climate simulations, model projections, and weather forecasts –Initiation of new summer institutes designed to gather leading experts and practitioners, young faculty, and students to define research problems and agendas, conduct research programs and experiments, and/or synthesize and summarize the state of knowledge on selected topics. –Initiation of a new climate forum that gathers policy-and decision- makers with climate and social scientists to discuss the current state of understanding about weather and climate impacts science, exchange views, and identify important questions and research topics. –Development of new weather and climate services and information products for selected stakeholders and audiences. –Significant advances in regional integrated climate impacts assessments and underlying understanding of societal vulnerability, adaptation, thresholds and resilience.