The impact of media access on democracy Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode

Hypothesis H0: There is no relationship between media access and levels of democracy H0: There is no relationship between media access and levels of democracy H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy We predict a moderate positive relationship between media access and democracy.

Hypothesis II H0: There is no relationship between media access and democracy in China H0: There is no relationship between media access and democracy in China H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy in China H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy in China We predict a moderate negative relationship between media access and democracy in China

Importance to Policy Analysis Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Foreign Policy Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Foreign Policy Conclusive findings could suggest alternative foreign policy strategies Conclusive findings could suggest alternative foreign policy strategies

Literature Review Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy: Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud? Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy: Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud? McChesney – Rich Media, Poor Democracy McChesney – Rich Media, Poor Democracy Kalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for Dictators Kalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for Dictators Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent! Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent! Franda, Marcus – Launching into Cyberspace Franda, Marcus – Launching into Cyberspace Lynch, David – After the Propaganda State Lynch, David – After the Propaganda State

Defining Our Variables Democracy: We created a variable to represent democracy by taking the raw data scores from Freedom House for a states Political and Civil Liberties. Each state was given between 1 and 60 points (60 being the most free) for Civil Liberties Each state was given between 1 and 40 points (40 being the most free) for Political Liberties Our Data for democracy therefore ranges from 1 (being the absolute least free) to 100 (being the most free possible) Internet Access: We used the World Bank’s World Development Indicators to create a variable measuring Internet Users per 1000 people. Media Access: We attempted to gather data regarding Newspapers per capita and the percentage of Televisions per household from the World Development Indicators, but the data was sparse and lacking in several areas. Censorship: We used the Freedom House Freedom of the Press indicators to create a censorship scale ranging from 1(no censorship at all) to 100 (complete censorship). GDP Per Capita: We used World Bank Data to compile a list of GDP per capita for each nation using base year 2000.

Variable Interaction

Datasets WDI datasets WDI datasets Newspapers per capita Newspapers per capita % of households with TV % of households with TV Internet users pr capita Internet users pr capita Freedom House raw data scores for Freedom House raw data scores for Freedom of the press Freedom of the press Democracy (CL and PR) Democracy (CL and PR) World.sav World.sav CIA World Factbook CIA World Factbook

Methodology Unit of Analysis: Nations Unit of Analysis: Nations Research Design: Cross Sectional Research Design: Cross Sectional Multiple Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Analysis Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per Capita Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per Capita Qualitative research on China, with small quantitative comparison Qualitative research on China, with small quantitative comparison N = 110 N = 110

Distribution of Internet access

Distribution of TV access

Regression Results – Internet Access

Regression Results Graphically

Regression with control for GDP Per Capita

Regression with control for GDP Per Capita and Censorship

Case Study of China

China Case Study

Case Study – Qualitative Analysis Has the Internet fostered Democracy in China? Chinese Government Tactics Censorship – Great Firewall of China Corporate Help – Google, Yahoo, Wikipedia Dissidents Short timeframe Ambiguous Results

Problems with data Countries with 100 can’t improve democratically within FH rankings Countries with 100 can’t improve democratically within FH rankings Internet Disproportionately weighted Internet Disproportionately weighted No data for newspapers or cell phones No data for newspapers or cell phones Small N for TV access Small N for TV access Censorship a very ambiguous and biased concept. No measurement for self censorship Censorship a very ambiguous and biased concept. No measurement for self censorship

Conclusions Accept H0: No relationship on a global level Accept H0: No relationship on a global level Previous studies disguised the type of information provided Previous studies disguised the type of information provided Very Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneity Very Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneity Short term vs. long term effect Short term vs. long term effect Accept H0: No clear uniform relationship Accept H0: No clear uniform relationship Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than mainland China Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than mainland China Government has been very efficient in blocking damaging information to the general public while dissidents use media internally Government has been very efficient in blocking damaging information to the general public while dissidents use media internally