AgMIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield NASA Goddard Institute for Space.

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Presentation transcript:

AgMIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York University of Florida, Gainesville USDA-ARS, Ames, Iowa September 10, Sub-Saharan Africa AgMIP Workshop September 10-14, 2012 Accra, Ghana

Climate – Alex Ruane Crop Modeling – Ken Boote and Peter Thorburn Crop Pilot leaders – wheat, maize, rice, potato, sorghum, potato Economic Modeling – John Antle and Jerry Nelson Information Technologies (IT) – Cheryl Porter and Sander Janssen Cross-Cutting Themes Uncertainty (Daniel Wallach, Mike Rivington) Representative Agricultural Pathways (John Antle) Aggregation Across Scales (Frank Ewert, Andy Challinor) Regional Research Teams AgMIP Science Teams

What is AgMIP? Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Aims to significantly advance scientific capabilities for addressing complex Ag & food security issues Integrated assessments and evaluation of adaptation practices, policies Targeting climate change and food security Global and regional scales Distributed project Funded by USDA, DFID, NOAA, USAID,... 3

Rising Demand for Grain (Now and Future Projections) Food and Energy Price Spikes Increased Water Scarcity Availability of Arable Land for Expansion of Production Weather Extremes – Drought, Heat Waves, Floods Climate Change, Current Trends and Projections Why AgMIP? Broad Societal Impact Issues: Food Security

Food security problems presented on international news by Fareed Zakaria (CNN) on September 9, 2012, emphasizing that “Unless countries invest more in agricultural research and development,...” more food crises are certain to happen in the future as populations continue to increase and major droughts occur as are happening this year in USA, Russia, India,... Agricultural risks growing, including climate change Consistent approach needed to enable agricultural sector analysis across relevant scales and disciplines Long-term process lacking for rigorous agricultural model testing and improvement Why AgMIP? 5

6 – Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, South America, North America, Europe, East Asia – AgMIP Initiatives – Track 2 Regional Assessment Programs Track 2 Track 1

Climate Scenarios Crop Models Agricultural Economics Models Information Technologies Online Project Guidance, Archive, and Clearinghouse Improvements and Intercomparisons Crop Models Agricultural Economics Models Scenario Methods Spatial Aggregation Methods Capacity Building Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Regional Vulnerability Trade Policy Instruments Technological Exchange Water Resources Pests and Diseases Livestock Cross-Cutting Themes Uncertainty Contributions of each component to uncertainty cascade Aggregation Across Scales Connecting local, regional, and global information Representative Agricultural Pathways Link to RCPs (Climate) SSPs (Economics) AgMIP Elements and Linkages Key Interactions Assessments Regional Global

AgMIP Regional Research Projects Five projects funded in SSA and five projects in SA by DFID (UK-AID) CGIAR support through financial management (ICRISAT) and scientist participation in Regional Research Teams (IFPRI, ICRISAT, CIAT, ILRI, IRRI, CIMMYT) Also support for some scientist participation is from the CGIAR global program – Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS) AgMIP SSA Workshop

AgMIP SSA Workshop Goals Build cohesiveness among SSA AgMIP teams Review and refine regional integrated assessment methods and procedures Review and refine specific plans of each team, aiming for unified outputs across SSA Develop plans for scientific outputs and for communicating results to stakeholders

The Program This week Day 1 – Introduction of people and of Regional Research Team programs Day 2 – Detailed discussions of climate, cropping systems, economics, and IT goals and approaches with each team Days 3 & 4 – Methods for implementing AgMIP protocols for integrated assessments Day 5 – Refinement of Research Teams’ plans and identification of gaps that need filling 10

11

Thank You 12 Cynthia Rosenzweig and Granddaughter - Livia

Mobilizing agricultural scientists in collaborative efforts to substantially improve our capabilities to answer some of the most complex societal problems concerning agriculture and food security 13

Global Pilot Crop-Climate Change Assessment 14 = AgMIP Questionnaire site = Additional possible sites Crop Modelers Contribute Site Results to Build AgmIP Archive Over Time