Center for Risk Communication Core Slides Dr. Vincent T. Covello Director Center for Risk Communication New York, New York Email: vincentcovello@ix.netcom.com vcovello@centerforriskcommunication.org Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Definitions “Threats to that which we value.” Risks: Definition Risk Communication: Definition “The exchange of information about risks.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Goals enhance knowledge and understanding build trust and credibility encourage appropriate behaviors and levels of concern Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Media Goals (CDC) Be first, be right, be credible Inform, not inflame Address rumors, inaccuracies, and misperceptions quickly

Risk Communication Hypotheses “Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.” “When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.” “When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Hypotheses “Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.” “When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.” “When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.” ========= Rule of 3 “When people are stress or upset, they typically can only process 3 messages at a time.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Hypotheses “Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.” “When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.” “When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholder Predictability “50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholder Predictability “50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients” “77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholder Predictability “50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients” “77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster” “65 Most Frequently Asked Questions about Bird Flu and Pandemic Influenza” (pandemicflu.gov) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Exercise Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists and the Public in a Disaster” Types of Questions: Factual Questions Emotionally Charged Questions Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Types of Questions Factual Questions Emotionally Charged Questions Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Challenges/Traps/Pitfalls False Negative Questions Guarantee Questions What If (Worst Case Scenario) Questions Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Challenge Questions: Do’s and Don’ts Don’t repeat a false negative Do repeat the opposite of the false negative Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Key Messages Risk communication is a science-based discipline High stress situations change the rules of communication The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Key Messages Risk communication is a science-based discipline High stress situations change the rules of communication The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature 8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals 2000 Books Reviews of the Literature by Major Scientific Organizations (e.g., National Academy of Sciences) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Research Based Resources Dr. R. Hyer and Dr. V. Covello Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies: A World Health Organization Handbook World Health Organization, United Nations: Geneva, April 2007 (www.who.int/bookorders) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Resources Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies A Comprehensive Bibliography of Peer Reviewed Articles Over 1000 Do’s and Don’ts (With Explanations) A Section on Message Mapping Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Resources Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies A Comprehensive Bibliography of Peer Reviewed Articles Over 1000 Do’s and Don’ts (With Explanations) A Section on Message Mapping and Message Mapping Templates Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholder Question or Concern: Message Map Key Message 9 words on average Key Message 9 words on average Key Message 9 words on average Support-ing Info. 1.1 Support-ing Info. 2.1 Support-ing Info. 3.1 Support-ing Info.. 1.2 Support-ing Info. 2.2 Support-ing Info. 3.2 Support-ing Info. 1.3 Support-ing Info. 2.3 : Support-ing Info. 3.3 Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Mapping Department of Health and Human Services/CDC: Pre-Event Maps for Avian Flu/Pandemic Influenza (www.pandemicflu.gov) Multi-State Partnership for Agricultural Security: Message Maps for 30 Agricultural Scenarios 3. Environmental Protection Agency: Message Maps for 6 Water/Groundwater Contamination Scenarios (www.epa.gov/nhsrc) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

KDG Template (Overarching Message Map) (Know, Do, Go) Key Message 1: What is most important for people to know Key Message 2: What is most important for people to do Key Message 3: Where can people go to get credible information Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions (Fear Factors) Lower Concern/Fear Under one’s control Trustworthy sources Fair/large benefits Higher Concern/Fear Controlled by others Untrustworthy sources Unfair/few or unclear benefits Involuntary Teaching Points: Twenty risk perception variables have been studied Depending upon the presence or absence of these factors, people will likely find the associated risks either acceptable or unacceptable Decisions about the acceptability of risks are value based, not data based These factors are cumulative in effect and can serve to either diminish or amplify the perception of a risk Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Mapping Exercise Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature 8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals 2000 Books Reviews of the Literature by Major Scientific Organizations (e.g., National Academy of Sciences) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The APP Template Planning and Preparation “If I had all day to cut down a large tree, I would use most of the day sharpening my axe.” Abraham Lincoln Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholder Predictability “For most high stress situations, over 95 percent of stakeholder concerns and questions can be predicted in advance.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Communication Regret Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Stakeholders/Partners Stakeholder Questions and Concerns Anticipate Scenarios Stakeholders/Partners Stakeholder Questions and Concerns Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The APP Template Anticipate Prepare Practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Prepare Messages Messengers Means APP Template Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Prepare Messages Messengers Means APP Template Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Prepare Messages Overarching Message (e.g., KDG) Informational Messages Challenge Question Messages Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The CCO Template Compassion Conviction Optimism Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Caring/Empathy “When people are stressed and upset, they want to know that you care before they care what you know.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Trust Factors in High Stress Situations Competence/ Expertise 15-20% Assessed in first 9-30 seconds Listening/ Caring/ Empathy/Compassion 50% Competence/ Expertise 15-20% All Other Factors 15-20% Honesty/ Openness 15-20% Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Models The Trust Determination Model The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model The Negative Dominance Model Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The CCO Template Compassion Conviction Optimism Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Mayor Giuliani, 9/11 “The number of casualties is more than any of us can bear ultimately.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The 27/9/3 Template 27 words 9 seconds 3 messages Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Attention Span/Mental Noise “When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.” ========= Rule of 3 “When people are stress or upset, they typically can only process 3 messages at a time.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Attention Span Research “The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information” George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University) The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp. 81-97 Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Attention Span Research “The Magic Number Three, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Receiving, Processing, and Remembering Information in High Stress Situations” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

High Stress Situations: Rule of 3 Shift Low Stress Situations: Brain can hold on average 7 messages High Stress Situations: 3 messages Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

The 27/9/3 Template 27 words 9 seconds 3 messages Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

27/9/3 Template 27 words (total of 27 words for all three key messages, with each key message averaging 9 words in length) 9 seconds 3 messages Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

27/9/3 Exercise: Tony Blair, Prime Minister 7/7/05 London Terrorist Bombing Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions TBC Template (Trust, Benefits, Control) Key Message 1: Trust Message Key Message 2: Benefits Message Key Message 3: Control Message Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perception Literature Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions “Perception equals reality.” “That which is perceived as real is real in its consequences.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

“Facts about risk appear to play little or no role in determining public fears, perceptions, and concerns about risks.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions (Fear Factors) Lower Concern/Fear Trustworthy sources Large benefits Under one’s control Voluntary Fair Natural origin Children not victims Higher Concern/Fear Untrustworthy sources Few or unclear benefits Controlled by others Involuntary Unfair Human origin Children as victims Teaching Points: Twenty risk perception variables have been studied Depending upon the presence or absence of these factors, people will likely find the associated risks either acceptable or unacceptable Decisions about the acceptability of risks are value based, not data based These factors are cumulative in effect and can serve to either diminish or amplify the perception of a risk Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perception/Fear Factors Trust Listening/Caring Competence/Expertise Honesty/Transparency Benefits/Fairness Societal Community Personal Control Choice Voice Knowledge (e.g. things for people to do) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

PERCEPTIONS OF RISK WEIGHTING FACTORS Factor Weight Trust 2000 Benefit 1000 Control 1000 Teaching Points: These are the three most powerful risk perception factors In many cases these can be managed to mitigate toward more effective communication Give example Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions “The more you can do to increase perceived trust, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions “The more you can do to increase perceived benefits and fairness, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Perceptions “The more you can do to increase perceived control, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Flower Pots/Bird Baths Key Word Message Map West Nile Virus Map Key Message “Remove Standing Water” Key Message “Wear Protective Clothing” Key Message “Use Insect Repellent” 1.1 Unattended swimming pools 2.1 Long Sleeves 3.1 DEET 1.2 Flower Pots/Bird Baths 2.2 Long Pants 3.2 23% 1.3 Cup of Water 2.3 Dusk and Dawn : 3.3 Medical Research Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Seven Step Model Empathy/Caring Key Messages (3) Key Message 1 Repeat Key Messages (3) Sources of Further Information Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates APP CCO 27/9/3 KDG TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Literature: Templates KDG APP CCO 27/9/3 TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates APP CCO 27/9/3 KDG TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates APP CCO 27/9/3 KDG TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Primacy/Recency Template “When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus most on what is said first (primacy) and last (recency).” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Primacy/Recency Template Low Stress Situations: Brain processes information based on linear order (e.g., 1, 2, 3) High Stress Situations: Brain processes information based on primacy/recency (e.g., 1, 3, 2) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates APP CCO 27/9/3 KDG TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template AGL-4 Template ======= AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels) Template “When people are stressed or upset, they typically process information at four grade levels below their average grade level.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

AGL-4 Shift Low Stress Situations: Brain processes information at AGL (average grade level) High Stress Situations: AGL-4 (average grade level minus 4 grade levels) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Templates APP CCO 27/9/3 KDG TBC === Primacy/Recency AGL-4 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

3 P (Positives) Template (Negative Dominance Principle) 1N=3P Template ==== 1N (Negative) Equals 3 P (Positives) Template “When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus more on the negative than on the positive.” (Negative Dominance Principle) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Negative Dominance High Stress Situations: 1N=3P (one negative on average equals three positives) Bad News Template: It takes on average 3 positives to balance one negative. Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

No, Not, Never, Nothing, None Negatives ==== No, Not, Never, Nothing, None Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Models The Stakeholder Predictability Model -- Templates: APP, KDG The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model -- Templates: 27/9/3, Primacy/Recency, AGL-4 The Trust Determination Model -- Templates: CCO, TBC The Negative Dominance Model -- Templates: 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals “When people are stressed or upset, a well constructed and presented visual can increase message attention, understanding, and recall by over 50 percent.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Visuals Graphics Analogies Story Telling Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Will H5N1 come to the US? Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Influenza viruses are spread from person to person, primarily through respiratory droplet transmission (e.g., when an infected person coughs or sneezes in close proximity to an uninfected person) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Resource Materials - Visuals Prof. Edward Tufte (Yale University) “Visual Explanations” “The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.” “Envisioning Information.” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Credibility Ladder High Credibility Medium Credibility Low Credibility Most Credible Least Credible High Credibility Medium Credibility Low Credibility Teaching Points: Trust takes the form of credibility in communication A credibility ladder, based on research, is essential in planning for and conducting high concern communications This is an example of a credibility ladder – nationwide survey, EHS topic Why would this ranking work out this way? Why would this be important? Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Credibility Transference “A lower credible source takes on the credibility of the highest credible source that agrees with its position on an issue.” Teaching Points: This is fairly intuitive, we see it every day This is the basis of celebrity endorsements in advertising and politics From what position on the credibility ladder are endorsers drawn? Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Credibility Reversal “When a lower source attacks the credibility of a higher source, the lower source loses further credibility. The only information source that can effectively attack the credibility of another source is one of equal or higher credibility.” Teaching Points: This is not so intuitive What is our reflexive response when our position is publicly attacked – often erroneously? What is the result when we attempt to “set the record straight” from a lower position on the credibility ladder? What are our options for being more effective? Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Non-Verbal Communications in High Stress Situations Provide up to 75 percent of message content Are intensely and quickly noticed Typically override verbal content Are typically interpreted negatively Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Resource Materials: Non-Verbal Communincation Prof. D. Morris, “Body Talk: A Dictionary of Human Gestures” Prof. P. Ekman, “Telling Lies: Clues to Deception” Prof. P. Ekman, “Emotions Revealed” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Bridging Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

“The most important thing for people to know is…” Bridging Statements Examples: “The most important thing for people to know is…” “What all this boils down to is…” “What needs to be emphasized is…” Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Message Enhancements Visuals Credible sources Non-verbal communication Bridging IDK Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

I.D.K. (I Don’t Know) Template (Repeat the Question) Say You Don’t Know/Can’t Answer/Wish You Could Answer* Give the Reason(s) Why You Don’t Know or Can’t Answer* Indicate Follow Up with Deadline* (Bridge to What You Can Say, Such as Overarching Message) Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication: Key Messages Risk communication is a science-based discipline High stress situations change the rules of communication The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Risk Communication Models The Stakeholder Predictability Model -- Templates: APP, KDG The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model -- Templates: 27/9/3, Primacy/Recency, AGL-4 The Trust Determination Model -- Templates: CCO, TBC The Negative Dominance Model -- Templates: 1N=3P Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication