Arjumand Habib Bangladesh Expert Meeting on Weather Climate and Farmers . Successful Application of Weather And Climate Information, Data and Forecast System in Agriculture. Arjumand Habib Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION Agriculture is mainly dependent on Weather and Climate. The main objective of the Agro meteorological forecasting services development is to reduce the impacts of natural disasters and to attain sustainability especially in food security management for the growing population. And the services around the world have been undergone a series of evolution since their inception with the development of science and technology.

From the second half of the last century the phase of development has attained the maximum momentum because of advancement of science and technology during the period. Besides the self, bilateral and international efforts for the improvement of the services , WMO’s contribution was remarkable since its inception as a coordinator of meteorological data exchange through Global Telecommunication Link (GTS) and other technical assistance on regional and global basis. Other than the developed countries, still most of the developing countries capacity for prediction of weather and climate is very less especially in the context of global warming and climate change scenario.

More improvement in the meteorological forecasting system is the key factor for effective Agro meteorological services Modernization of meteorological and Agricultural management system is must for overall prediction enhancement. It is indispensable now for the introduction of Numerical Weather Prediction techniques in weather forecasting for having objective decision making with more lead time.

More data coverage by Doppler Radar System, Satellite monitoring and Automatic remote sensing stations. Improved weather, Climate data and information will certainly improve the functionality of agricultural modeling. GIS technology will help further the functionality of modeling system by assimilating more environmental and socio economic information and finally enhance the decision making process of agricultural management.

Application of Models in Agriculture Statistical models have good practical results in arid –tropical and temperate zone for drought mitigation . Simulation technology is an efficient management tool for planning and production estimate. For taking proper adaptation measures, assessment of future climate change impact on productivity, simulation model can offer a better prospect. Integration of simulation and Global circulation model give impact assessment of climate change on different crops on regional and global basis.

Example of Application of Simulation Model in climate Change Scenario Assessment. CERES-Wheat model V3.5 is validated on various genotypes under diverse environment in North West India. Results indicate that the simulated phonological and yield attributes are either close to observed ones or vary with -15% to + 15%. This is quite acceptable for most management decision. The effect of increasing CO2 concentration will increase net primary productivity of plants, but climate change and its associated changes ultimately lead to either increased or decreased net eco system productivity.

Impact of modified climate is observed higher under rain-fed conditions as compared to irrigated ones in all genotypes. Adaptation assessment suggests that the possible changes in sowing dates and hybrid selection can reduce the negative impact of projected future warming in the country. To asses the impact of climate in the sugar beet yield over northern Europe, simulation model result indicate expected increase of production by one tons/hectare in Northern Europe. But decrease of similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium and West/ Central Poland for the period 20021-2050. Drought losses are predicted to approx. double in area with an existing problem and a serious new problem in NE France and Belgium.

Example of Operational Agro-meteorological Forecasting System in Australia “Farm weather” service provide weather forecast and agronomic advice to a large part of Australia. Economic benefits of the service based on only the production of four main export crops are about six times, the cost of producing the services. The service product has been developed with the help of Radar , Satellite, NWP, Automatic remote sensing observations with speedy and reliable communication.

The product includes forecast for one week, incorporating expert opinion of meteorologist , containing computer graphics depicting model output, Radar and satellite picture. Dissemination to the end user by fax and internet “Farmweather” can be applicable in developing countries provided they have sufficient real time monitoring system and at least Fax Machine for dissemination.

Example of Application of Weather and Climate data, India Myanmer Example of Application of Weather and Climate data, information in Agricultural management in developing Countries. BANGLADESH Agro based tropical country having area of 147, 570 sq kms & population is 135 millions. Low lying country comprising of a delta at the confluence of the major rivers flow from India , Nepal, China and ultimately fall to the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh. About 80% of the land is flood prone, at least 20% of the land normally Inundated and under excessive flooding about 70% area is affected during monsoon. Climate is dominated by southwest monsoon. Plentiful rain, less annual variability and equable thermal regime made the country a developed agricultural area.

Background of agricultural Management In Bangladesh During last three decades food production tripled from 10 million tones of early 1970’s 20 27 million tones in 2000 This is due to the rapid adaptation of mechanical irrigation, use of modern HYV varieties of seeds, increased use of fertilizer, pesticides and effective extension service along with weather forecast for day to day agricultural operation. In 1986, Agro meteorological service of Bangladesh meteorological department started functioning with 12 Agro-met stations. In 2003, more radiation and soil moisture measuring instruments are included in the service. 10 days Agro meteorological bulletins issued containing past weather and climate data and information with 10 days forecast.

Dissemination to the policy makers by fax and end user by extension service. After 1975’s great famine, Bangladesh did not suffer from major food crisis. Food production at the moment is not at the rate earlier the country enjoyed, but population growth is continuing . Our emphasis on rice production has limited the scope for livestock and fish cultivation Indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer now became a threat to natural eco system. +

So any fluctuation due to climate variability could upset the delicately balanced food management . Existing meteorological and Agro-meteorological services have not enough capacity to give seasonal and accurate lead time forecast for extreme events especially for flood.

Limitation of existing Food Information System The occurrence of flood at the time of harvest not only leaves little time to complete harvest operation, also delayed the time for next transplanting. Loss of investment made for the damaged crops reduces the capacity of the farmers for sowing / planting of next crop.

Potential value of accurate short to Medium Range Flood forecast ( 5 days to 2 weeks) Acceleration of harvesting of crops when threatened by floods and to take mid season correction and crop life saving measures when ever possible. To protect farm assets.

Potential value of long range Forecast ( 2 months or more) Flood escaping cropping strategy could be taken for flood prone area. Availability of short duration varieties of crops, proper extension, market support, acceptance of probabilistic forecast by farmers in various risk prone areas are needed for better management.

Conclusion The capacity of meteorologist and farmers to be enhanced. Seasonal and accurate lead-time forecast for extreme events. Proper adaptation strategy to be taken in the context of climate change.

INDIA Climate The sub continent covers tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions. The annual variation of rainfall is large being less than 10 cm in North west and over 1000 cm in North East with varying weather phenomena like snow storm, tropical cyclone, excessive rainfall etc. Temperature vary from -45° to 49°C in winter to summer from North west in winter to central Rajasthan in summer. However the main feature of the climate is characterized by the south west monsoon rainfall, but its wide variation in time and space causing droughts and floods.

Cropping Pattern in INDIA Different states have different cropping and vegetation patterns based on agro–climatic feature of rainfall , types of soil and topography. Annual rainfall variability from one state to another stretches from 10% - 60% or even more, characterized by heavy to low rainfall. So, flooding and drought are the common phenomena causing considerable decrease in yield and loss of agricultural output. Southwest monsoon rainfall and its distribution are very crucial for crop production.

History of Agro meteorological Services Development In INDIA In 1875 the system for meteorological observation and its dissemination to the Govt was established throughout India. After that, the long period since then up to today, various collaborative and coordinated schemes were taken incorporating Govt’s Departments, Research Institutes and Universities to exploit weather and climate system for agriculture and those steps had facilitated the growth of Agro-Meteorology in different dimensions in India.

Mitigational Approaches The anticipated population growth may be 15000 million by 2020. The food production has to be stepped up from 184 million metric tones during the year 1994-95 to 225 million metric tones by 2020. The water needs in agricultural sector are very high as several thousand tones of water is required to produce one metric tone of food grain. Therefore long term strategies for mitigation of drought is very important for INDIA. Energy shortage is another constraint in drought mitigation.

Drought Research Unit of India prepares monthly Aridity Anomaly maps. So to mitigate floods and droughts India have undertaken a very detailed study to formulate a set of criteria for optimum sowing rains and established a system for monitoring of droughts on real time basis. Criteria for optimum sowing rains are drawn on the basis of long term data of 80 years (1901-1981). Drought Research Unit of India prepares monthly Aridity Anomaly maps. From the survey it is found that the monitoring of drought have made marked improvement in the agricultural practices. The evolved techniques also in help for planners in the following fields: Conservation of soil moisture Introduction of crop sowing techniques Introduction of alternate cropping pattern

Application of Statistical and simulation models in Agriculture for decision making and adaptation. Monthly interim forecast are prepared for policy makers by using Regression crop yield model Simulation models for Wheat and Rice are validated under diverse climatic conditions to asses the climate change impacts.

Operational Agro meteorological Services For day to day agricultural operations, daily weather bulletins containing past weather, district wise forecast for next 24 hrs and outlook for subsequent two days with warning for extreme events are issued twice daily and broadcast by Radio. Agro met advisory bulletin which is short and medium range weather forecast issued twice a week in consultation with agricultural expert for taking planning decision and broadcast by Radio and also telecast & published in Newspapers.

Other Fields of Operational Agro-Meteorological Activities The objective of Dry farming activities is to help farmers of the area where no irrigation facilities available for proper utilization of short period rainfall more efficiently For locust eradication 7 Pilot balloon cum micro meteorological stations are used to monitor the low level flow of locust To improve the agricultural practices in mass scale , Satellite Instructional Television experiment has been started functioning since 1975. The programme includes Weather Information Advise on sowing Operation Application of insecticides Warning for floods

CONCLUSION The climate change will have significant interaction with crop growth, development, water use and productivity. So, it would be a threat to the existing agriculture practices. To combat the negative impact of climate change, an appropriate weather and climate based advisory and forecast of all scale generated from high resolution data source and system along with proper adaptation measures are to be taken.

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