Waikiki Tsunami Preparedness Major Trisha Cobb, USA LT Hamadi Bouaicha, Tunisia Navy OA 4202 Team Project Network Flows and Graphs

Introduction 2

Problem Statement Analyze Waikiki evacuation preparedness Given: – 30 min – 20,000 evacuees – One-way roads with choke points – County assigned disaster shelters 3

Assumptions Rational actors 2 pax per vehicle 20,000 will attempt to evac Simplified Network Everyone traveling at the same rate and departing at the same time No public transportation 4

5 Objective: maximize the number of evacuees during a limited laps of time (MOE) Constraints : Must evacuate people from starting points to shelters : Supply points All evacuees must be directed to shelters Can’t have evacuees in others locations than hotels and shelters Maximum Capacity of roads and bridges (during all the evacuation time) ESet of nodes : departure points, route intersections, shelters,… y ij Decision variables: flow over edge vMaximum number of people that we can evacuate u ij Edges capacities = length * # lanes* max Evac Time* constant (pax per car, #cars/lane/mile)

Simplified Network Design 6 Hotels Choke Shelter end

Network 9

30% Analysis 70% 8% 43% 22% 27%

Rate of Travel (mph) Sensitivity Analysis

Rate of Travel (mph) Sensitivity Analysis

Rate of Travel (mph) Sensitivity Analysis

Adding a Bridge

Walk

Adding a Bridge

4% 11% 13% 13 One Interdiction

Two Interdictions 4% 11% 13 2,119 evacuate 1 1

Three Interdictions 3% evacuate

Future Considerations Logistics rebuilding of Waikiki Time layering with an exponential arrival rate Varying road capacity based on time of day 20

Conclusion

Questions 22