Pigs and Pig Meat Michael A Martin Specialist Pig Development Officer Situation and Outlook Conference 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Pigs and Pig Meat Michael A Martin Specialist Pig Development Officer Situation and Outlook Conference 2008

Pig Development Unit Outline 1. Margin over Feed Costs 2. Non Feed Costs 3. Production 4. Crisis 5. Price Prospects 6. Feed Prospects

Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed Costs Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed Cost Average for Period C per kg dead weight Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

Pig Development Unit Margin over Feed Cost Average margin has been 47.6c per kg dead weight Margin required to break even was c c Source: PigSys Report 2007

Pig Development Unit Non Feed Costs Low profitability means that some non feed costs are deferred Manure costs set to increase from 2011 Capital investment in dry sow housing by 2013 means higher interest and building depreciation charges Units need capital investment

Pig Development Unit Pig Prices and Feed Costs per kg

Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed per kg Dead Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

Pig Development Unit Financial Losses July 07-June 08 Non feed costs per kg c 46.3 Margin over Feed per kg c 33.2 Loss per kg c 13.1 Loss per 75 kg pig € 9.83 Loss on 3.11m head €million 30.6

Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed per kg Dead

Pig Development Unit Finisher Pig Prices Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices WK 49

Pig Development Unit Production Teagasc estimate a decline of 5500 sows from Jan 2007 CSO show herd 8000 sows less than Teagasc estimate Sow Herd Source Sows + Served Gilts CSO June ,200 Teagasc PDU 147,500

Pig Development Unit Sow Productivity PigSys recorded herds are producing 1.75 pigs more per sow per year than those in unrecorded herds Source No. Pigs Produced / Sow / Year National Data 20.9 PigSys22.1 Non PigSys 20.3

Pig Development Unit Pig Slaughterings: All Ireland Very small decrease in kill in Jan-Sept 2008 Over latest 13 weeks average weekly kill was 75,023 down from in 2007 First 39 weeks Republic1,9451,912 N. Ireland Total2,9052,875 DAFF and DARDNI

Pig Development Unit What Needs to be Done Now? Recommence pig slaughtering immediately – financial and pig welfare Restore consumer confidence in Irish pig meat Reclaim home and export markets Maintain pig kill – no build up of pigs on units Recovery plan for each unit

Pig Development Unit Pig Price Prospects EU pig meat supplies will be reduced in 2009 Quarter Forecast Compared to Previous Year % EU Pig Meat Forecasts

Pig Development Unit Feed Price Prospects Cereal prices are considerably lower than 2007 Week Britain (HGCA) Wheat Barley France (IFIP) Wheat Barley Maize206125

Pig Development Unit Summary Sector is facing serious difficulties Economic climate impacts on prospects Feed prices to decline but GM approval issue remains Non feed costs to increase Pig supplies reduced Difficult year ahead

Thank You