Update to COPC 4 – 5 November 2014 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

2 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 2 Agenda  National ESPC  NUOPC UEO Committee  NUOPC CMA Committee Update  Questions and Discussion

The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Inter-agency Project

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 4 National ESPC Strategy Whitepaper Final version sent to Liaisons incorporating Agency feedback and ESG comments 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Continue working on the National ESPC Strategy whitepaper and publish as a response to the 2006 BAMS “Uncoordinated Giant” article, highlighting NUOPC successes. Draft proposal for BAMS sent to Liaisons 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Create a National ESPC Strategy 2-pager to distribute appropriately to get support for the project. National ESPC staff drafting Strategy 2-pager for distribution to Liaisons

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 5 UEO Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 6 Unified Ensemble Operations UEO continuing efforts to collect wave ensemble metrics; NAWES providing updates at UEO and NAEFS telecons NUOPC metrics from NCEP and FNMOC briefed to ESG 2014 ensemble User Survey summaries briefed to Navy and AF; working NOAA summary

5-day forecast for surface wind (U) 10-day forecast for surface wind (U)

NH T2m

NA T2m

Relative performance of models varies by forecast lead time and region, but NUOPC is consistently best for all lead times and regions.

FNMOC is now providing all Centers’ models and multi-model NUOPC products to its customers. (FNMOC)(NCEP)(Canadian)(FNMOC)(NCEP) CMC added to NUOPC at FNMOC

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 13 CMA Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC NUOPC Common Model Architecture CMA working final edit of manuscript for ESPS paper to BAMS Added NUOPC Compliant Components to ESPS Coupled Modeling Systems; briefed to ESG Just got HYCOM in CESM running in a HYCOM-ICE configuration; not yet scientifically valid but that will take some time. ESMF release in Nov 2014 PI Group drafting high-level requirements document for Physics Driver interface design and modernized Kalnay Rules paper for AMS

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 15 ESPS is a collection of NUOPC- compliant Earth system component and model codes o interoperable, documented, available to credentialed users Implementation is part of NOPP project awarded under ESPC o “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models” ESPS interfaces are based on ESMF and the NUOPC Layer The NUOPC Interoperability Layer: o a set of rules for coding ESMF- compliant Earth system component and coupled models ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave): ojects/esps/ DeLuca et al (draft) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) Coupled Modeling Systems NEMSCFSv3 COAMPS /COAMP S-TC NavGEM- HYCOM- CICE GEOS-5ModelECESM Driver 2015 Atmospheres GFS/GSM NMMB CAM 2014 FIM2014 GEOS-5 FV 2015 ModelE Atm 2014 COAMPS Atm NavGEM NEPTUNE 2015 WRF 2014 Oceans MOM5 HYCOM NCOM MPAS-O TBD POP POM2015 Ice CICE 2014 Wave WW32014 SWAN LEGEND Compliant(Completion date)In progress (Completion date) Candidate Compliant since 3/2014

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 16 Questions & Discussion

NUOPC Verification Metrics EMC/NCEP October 28 th 2014 Acknowledgement: Dr. Yan Luo For all three individual bias corrected ensemble forecast (NCEP/GEFS, CMC/GEFS and FNMOC/GEFS) and combined (NUOPC) ensemble (equal weights) against UKMet analysis Period: April 2011 – October 2014

Ratio of RMS error over spread Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30-day running mean scores of day-5 CRP score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions could be seen from: aefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014 _ts.html aefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014 _ts.html NH 500hPa anomaly correlation 5-day forecast NH 500hPa CRP scores Under-dispersion Over-dispersion NH 500hPa RMS errors

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30-day running mean scores of day-10 CRP score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions could be seen from: fs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts. html fs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts. html 10-day forecast

NH CRP scores NH RMS errors NA CRP scores NA RMS errors 5-day forecast for surface temperature

10-day forecast for surface temperature

5-day forecast for surface wind (V) 10-day forecast for surface wind (V)

Latest 4-month statistic scores June 1 st – September 30 th 2014

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: Latest 2-month scored: CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions/scores could be seen from: UOPC/NUOPC_bc_fal2014.html UOPC/NUOPC_bc_fal2014.html NH CRPS skill scores NH anomaly correlation 500hPa Height NH RMS errors

NH CRPS skill scoresNH RMS errors NA CRPS skill scoresNA RMS errors Surface temperature

NH CRPS skill scores NH RMS/Spread scores For surface wind (U) NH CRPS skill scores NH RMS/Spread scores For surface wind (V)

Comparing of NCEP/GEFS, NAEFS and NUOPC for all bias corrected ensemble forecasts, against UKMet analysis Period: April 2011 – October 2014

Day-5 NH 500hPa height Day-10 NH 500hPa height