What Weather Forecast Information do People Get, Want, Need, Use, … ? Julie Demuth * and Daniel Nietfeld ** *NCAR Societal Impacts Program **NWS Omaha/Valley WFO Julie Demuth * and Daniel Nietfeld ** *NCAR Societal Impacts Program **NWS Omaha/Valley WFO IWT Workshop: Using the WAS*IS Approach January 22, 2009 IWT Workshop: Using the WAS*IS Approach January 22, 2009

Do you normally get forecasts during the time periods listed below? a)From 12 a.m. to before 6 a.m. b)From 6 a.m. to before 8 a.m. c)From 8 a.m. to before 11 a.m. d)From 11 a.m. to before 1 p.m. e)From 1 p.m. to before 4 p.m. f)From 4 p.m. to before 7 p.m. g)From 7 p.m. to before 12 a.m.

The forecast high temperature for Kansas City tomorrow is 40ºF. a) 40ºF b) 39-41ºF c) 38-42ºF d) 35-45ºF e) 30-50ºF What do you think the actual high temp will be?

There is a 30% chance for freezing rain tomorrow. What are your concerns for a hazardous impact?

Outline Julie: Survey findings about people’s – sources, perceptions, and uses of weather forecast information – perceptions of, interpretations of, and preferences for uncertainty information Daniel: What does it all mean?!

Julie (NCAR) and Daniel (NWS) Julie, the researcher, provides great questions, and great answers, and great research findings… Daniel, the operational guy, takes Julies findings and applies them to the real world… One without the other is only half-effective … 50% effectiveness rarely makes a difference Julie and Daniel, partner and learn from each other!

Julie et al.’s survey design and implementation Nationwide, controlled-access web survey of U.S. public Pre-tested during development and implementation Respondent population: – is geographically diverse with responses from every state – has similar gender and race distribution to the U.S. public – is slightly older and more educated N=1520 completed responses, but 3.6% of people say they never use weather forecasts … this analysis based on N=1465 responses N=1520 completed responses, but 3.6% of people say they never use weather forecasts … this analysis based on N=1465 responses

Screenshot of sources question There is a science to doing surveys!

Weather forecast questions From where and how often do people get weather forecast information? What times of day do people get forecasts? For what reasons do people get forecasts? What weather forecast parameters are important to people? For what locations or regions do people get forecasts? What is people’s willingness to pay for forecasts? (See Lazo et al for all results)

How often do you get forecasts from the sources listed? Response options – Rarely or never – Once or more a month – Once a week – Two or more times a week – Once a day – Two or more times a day  0 times per month  1  4  8  30  60  recoded to lower-bound quantitative count of sources per month

What does this mean to us ??? Certainly can NOT assume that, at any given time, people know what the latest forecast is In rapidly changing weather conditions, the forecast may change frequently (5-6 X / day) What can we assume? Lowest common denominator… “THEY DON’T KNOW THE CURRENT FORECAST”

Mean # of forecasts obtained monthly Local TV Cable TV Commercial or public radio Other webpages Newspapers NWS webpages Friends, family, co-workers, etc. NOAA Weather Radio Cell phone, PDA, pager, etc. N=1465 Telephone weather info source Average respondent gets weather forecasts 115 times per month. Nearly 226 million U.S. adults  300 billion+ forecasts per year!* * Accounts for 3.6% of respondents who never use weather forecasts.

What does this mean to us ??? MOST people do NOT have access to instantaneous weather information such as NOAA Weather Radio or a pager You TV folks play a major role (news flash!) Timely internet updates are important There are MANY sources of weather information

Time forecasts normally received N=1465 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 12a-6a 6a-8a 8a-11a 11a-1p 1p-4p4p-7p 7p-12a

What does this mean to us ??? Morning TV Broadcast Meteorologist may play just as important of a role as the evening Chief (?) 1 pm – 4 pm is when people are paying the least attention to the weather forecast – When are watches often issued ? – When do warnings often begin ? 4 pm – 7 pm appears to be “an accident waiting to happen” – 4 pm is a common shift change in NWS and TV – People are tuning in – The cap breaks!

Usually or alwaysMore than half the timeAbout half the time Less than half the timeRarely or neverN/A 0%20%40%60%80%100% Planning job activities Planning getting to Planning social activities Planning yard work or outdoor house work Planning travel Planning weekend activities Planning how to dress Simply knowing what the weather will be like self or children work or school N=1465 Use of weather forecasts

What does this mean to us ??? The weather matters, and people do check (i.e., the light blue is less frequent than the dark blue!) A loose, broad conclusion may be that when vulnerability is higher, the weather is of higher importance (?) – Children – Weekend activities (festivals, boating, etc…) – Travel

Importance of weather parameters 0%20%40%60%80%100% Wind direction How cloudy it will be Time of day low temp will occur Time of day high temp will occur Humidity levels Wind speed Low temp Chance of amount of precip Amount of precip High temp Type of precip Where precip will occur Chance of precip When precip will occur Extremely importantVery importantSomewhat important A little importantNot at all important N=1465

What does this mean to us ??? Top 4 are precipitation-related Connection between precipitation, storms  the high-impact weather that affects people, that has societal relevance! More emphasis on when and where precip occur? Even on PQPF (chance of amount of precip)? There is more dark blue than light blue!

Forecast uncertainty questions How much confidence do people have in different types of weather forecasts? Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts and, if so, how much? How do people interpret a type of uncertainty forecast that is already commonly available and familiar: probability of precipitation forecasts? To what extent do people prefer to receive deterministic vs. uncertainty-explicit forecasts? In what formats do people prefer to receive forecast uncertainty information? (See Morss et al for all results)

Some severe, uncertainty forecasts

Confidence in weather forecasts 0%20%40%60%80%100% 7-14 day 5 day 3 day 2 day 1 day < 1 day Very highHighMediumLowVery low N=1465 Forecast Lead Time

Day 2 SPC probabilistic outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 600 AM CST WED JAN DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BITTERLY COLD LEVELS BY TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO RICHMOND...MARSHALL AND BOONVILLE. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE ALREADY COLD START WILL HELP PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. Hazardous Weather Outlook: Two sections… Day One (detailed) Days 2-7 (???) (more vague) (inferred uncertainty?) What does this mean to you ?

Suppose the forecast high temperature for tomorrow for your area is 75°F. What do you think the actual high temperature will be? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 75°F74-76°F (± 1°F) 73-77°F (± 2°F) 70-80°F (± 5°F) 65-85°F (± 10°F) Other N=1465

Suppose the forecast says, “There is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow.” What do you think best describes what the forecast means? Other (please explain) I don’t know. 60% of weather forecasters believe that it will rain tomorrow. It will rain on 60% of the days like tomorrow.* It will rain tomorrow for 60% of the time. 24% 9% 23% 19% 10% 16%It will rain tomorrow in 60% of the region. Percent of respondents Response option * Technically correct interpretation, according to how PoP forecasts are verified N=1330

Open-ended responses re: PoP Many reiterate PoP without clarification Many describe the chance they’ll personally experience rain or personal implications for action Consistent with other studies, majority of people don’t know technically correct definition of PoP… …but asking people to think about PoP from a meteorological perspective may have limited value … people still have to translate what it means to them personally!

Definition of SPC probablities The probabilities that you see on the graphics represent the probability of one or more events occurring within 25 miles of any point during the outlook period. This definition is used as the probability of severe weather at an given point is quite small. There is a large amount of uncertainty in forecasting severe weather on these scales. How many times have you experienced a tornado in your neighborhood? For most people, the answer is never. Now think of how many times severe weather has occurred within 25 miles of your location. Probability of Severe Hail ¾” or larger

5% Probability of a Tornado… Is this a relatively high probability to you? 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of where you are! Is this a reasonable threat to you ? To you as a: – 22 year old college student – School superintendent ? – Factory manager ? – Large event Director ? – Emergency Manager ?

You are watching the local evening news The Channel A weather forecaster says the high temperature will be 76°F tomorrow The Channel B weather forecaster says the high temperature will be between 74°F and 78°F tomorrow. The Channel A weather forecaster says the high temperature will be 76°F tomorrow The Channel B weather forecaster says the high temperature will be between 74°F and 78°F tomorrow. = 0%10%20%30%40%50% Prefer Channel A (deterministic) Prefer Channel B (uncertainty) Like both channels Like neither channel I don't know N=1465

All the choices below are the same as a probability of precipitation of 20%. Do you like the information given this way? Chance of precipitation is 20% There is a 1 in 5 chance of precipitation The odds are 1 to 4 that it will rain There is a slight chance of rain tomorrow  Percent  Frequency  Odds  Text Asked this question 3 ways − using PoPs of 20%, 50%, and 80% with corresponding text descriptions from NWS Asked this question 3 ways − using PoPs of 20%, 50%, and 80% with corresponding text descriptions from NWS

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% PercentFrequencyOddsText N = 489, PoP of 20% Percent of respondents who said “yes” 489, PoP of 50% 487 PoP of 80%

Suppose the high temperature tomorrow will probably be 85ºF. A cold front may move through, making the high only 70ºF. Would you like the forecast given this way? The high temperature tomorrow… 80% chance it will be 85°F, 20% chance it will be 70°F, because a cold front may move through 80% chance it will be 85°F, 20% chance it will be 70°F …will be between 70°F and 85°F, because a cold front may move through …will be between 70°F and 85°F …will most likely be 85°F, but it may be 70°F, because a cold front may move through (WITH explanation) …will most likely be 85°F, but it may be 70°F (WITHOUT explanation) …will be 85°F

Percent of respondents who said “yes" 60%0%10%20%30%40%50% Will be 85°F 60%0%10%20%30%40%50% Most likely 85°F but may be 70°F Between 70-85°F 80% chance 85°F, 20% chance 70°F Without cold front explanation With cold front explanation Deterministic ~35% Deterministic ~35% Uncertainty >90% Uncertainty >90% Deterministic only ~7% Deterministic only ~7% Uncertainty only ~63% Uncertainty only ~63% N=1465

People want to know the possibilities! Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) Warning Decision Update product Severe Wx Outlook discussion TV Broadcaster discussing the range of possibilities!

Warning Decision Update...WARNING DECISION UPDATE......THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... LINE/CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE CELLS NORTHEAST OF LAWTON IS VERY LOW TOPPED (20 K FT) AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) LEFT OVER FROM STORMS IN WEST TEXAS EARLIER. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO... BUT DO NOT BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED MESOCYCLONE TYPE TORNADOES OR OTHER FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CELLS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN Z/V DATA FROM KFDR/KTLX FOR ANY SIGNS CONTRARY TO THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION. $$ ANDRA

Severe Weather Responses ? If we have this much variety amongst routine weather forecast information, imagine the variety amongst severe weather warning/watch/forecast information !!!

Discussion questions What other questions do we need to explore about people’s attitudes and behaviors? On a day- to-day basis? During high-impact events? This was a first look at members of the public… How can we tap into the knowledge and experience of IWT members? – Broadcast meteorologists (e.g., focus groups) – NWS forecasters – Emergency managers and other public officials

Thank you Julie Demuth Daniel Nietfeld References – Morss, R.E., J.L. Demuth, J.K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Wea. Forecasting, 23, – Lazo, J. K., R.E. Morss, and J.L. Demuth, 2008: 300 billion served: Sources, perceptions, uses, and values of weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. – Demuth, J.L, B.H. Morrow, J.K. Lazo, 2009: Providing weather forecast information: An exploratory study with broadcast meteorologist. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted.