Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia? International Project on Global Environmental Change and its Threat to Food and Water Security in Russia Seminar at the German Embassy, Moscow 13 February 2003 Joseph Alcamo (Co-leader)* Genady Golubev (Co-leader)** Nikolai Dronin** Marcel Endejan* Andrei Kirilenko*** *Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany **Department of Geography, Moscow State University ***Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science (currently, Purdue University, USA)

Part I. Introduction to the Project Joseph Alcamo Part II. Geography of Food Genady Golubev Part III. Some Remarks on Historical Trends in Food Security Nikolai Dronin Part IV. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Joseph Alcamo Part V Question Period The Presenters together with colleagues Andrei Kirilenko, Marcel Endejan The Program

Take a fresh view of climate change impacts on Russian agriculture and water resources... Focus on extreme climate events such as droughts. Take into account dependency of regions. Use state-of-the-art computer modeling. Years: 1995, 2020s, 2070s Objectives of Study

Max Planck Society, Humboldt Foundation... to support international cooperation Organizers: Joseph Alcamo, Genady Golubev Cooperating Organizations: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Department of Geography, Moscow State University Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science Support for the Study

Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia? Part IV. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Joseph Alcamo

The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Methodology 2 IPCC Scenarios Analysis of Food Geography 2 Climate models Population, economic trends GLASS Model - WaterGAP model - GAEZ model Climate scenario s Indicators of water use and availability Indicators of water security (frequency of runoff extremes) Indicators of food security (frequency of bad harvest years) Indicators of crop production and trade

Year & Scenario DescriptionPopulation (millions) GDP/ person- year (US$) A2 (2025) Regionalized world, economically- oriented B2 (2025) Regionalized world, environmentally -oriented Assumptions of IPCC Scenarios for Russia (2025)

Climate Change

Computing Climate Impacts on Water Resources: the WaterGAP 2 Model Water Withdrawals Water Withdrawals PopulationPopulation IncomeIncome TechnologyTechnology ClimateClimate Water Availability Watershed Water Stress Watershed Water Stress Land CoverLand Cover ClimateClimate Water Withdrawals Domestic(by country) Domestic(by country) Industrial (by country) Industrial (by country) Irrigation (by grid-cell) Irrigation (by grid-cell) Livestock (by grid-cell) Livestock (by grid-cell) Water Availability (by 0.5° grid-cell) RunoffRunoff RechargeRecharge

Testing the WaterGAP Model River Discharge of Volga at Volgograd (km 3 /a) Computed Observed

(c) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, February 2003 – Water GAP 2.1D Water withdrawals in Russia (2025) 1995 A2 (2025) B2 (2025) Household s Industry Agricultur e

Changes in Water Resources A2 Scenario 2020s Change in Annual Water Withdrawals (relative to 1995) Change in Annual Water Availability (relative to climate normal)

The good news... Under climate change, water becoming more plentiful. Under some scenarios, withdrawals decreasing almost everywhere The bad news... Under some scenarios, water withdrawals rapidly increasing in North, Siberia, Far East  increasing pressure on water resources Extreme events increasing (low runoff in Southwest, high runoff in Siberia & the North) Southwest already under severe water pressure (agricultural, industrial, domestic users) + increase in low runoff events  New water sources for irrigation projects? Water security problems? Main Points Climate Change & Water Resources

“ Supply-side”, for example: Increase water storage. Using lower quality water. Build river dikes. Construct floodways. “Demand-side”, for example: Water conservation. Reduce municipal, irrigation leakages. Early warning systems for droughts and floods. Coping Strategies Climate Change & Water Resources

Computes potential production for a particular climate. For prescribed climate conditions, can crop grow? (Uses existing knowledge). If yes, then computes photosynthesis and respiration. Adds in agricultural technology, and other factors. Model tested against data around the world. Tested with data from Central Chernozem region. Computing Climate Impacts on Potential Crop Production: The “GAEZ” Model

2020s 2070s Production relative to current (%) Production of Most Important Crop

ScenarioFuture Period 2020s2070s A2-6 to to -5 B2-9 to to -5 Change in Total Russian Potential Grain Production (Relative to Current, %)

Strong Year-to-Year Variability of Crop Production

Main crop  50% grain export regions production

The good news... Climate becomes more favorable... Small decrease or increase in total potential crop production up to 2020s The bad news... The South getting drier... “Bad harvest” years : Increase from 1-2 x per decade  2 – 3 x per decade Because of reliance of Siberia, Far East,... on South, bad harvests propagate throughout Russia. People affected by 1 or more bad harvests per decade: –Now: 58 million –2020s: 77 million –2070s 141 million Main Points Climate Change & Agriculture

Substitute crops: rye  wheat, wheat  maize, potatoes  rye, Brings only slight yield increase? Expand rainfed crop area bad soils costs of expanding production transport costs for crops increase of pests, weeds Expand irrigated crop area Southwest water resources already under severe pressure. Diversification of crops Many varieties already available. New genetically-modified varieties? Improving agricultural management Integrated pest management Targeted fertilizer use Reduction of harvest and distribution losses Coping Strategies Climate Change & Agriculture

“Security measures” Strategic food reserves – Storing surpluses Early warning systems – Combine climate prediction and expert knowledge Genuine free world trade for food-- A new ethic... Take world food trade off the political agenda Summing up: Several options, each with its own feasibility and costs Coping Strategies Climate Change & Agriculture

Coping is Not the Only Strategy R educe greenhouse gases and slow down climate change. Russia should: Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Join with industrialized countries to severely reduce emissions. Encourage developing countries to slow down their emission increases.

Average changes may not be bad (increased water availability, better crop growing conditions) but climate change will not generally benefit Russia because... Extreme events such as droughts will occur in sensitive locations and threaten the water and food security of its people. It is time now to act to minimize this threat. Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia? Conclusions

Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia? International Project on Global Environmental Change and its Threat to Food and Water Security in Russia Seminar at the German Embassy, Moscow 13 February 2003 Joseph Alcamo (Co-leader)* Genady Golubev (Co-leader)** Nikolai Dronin** Marcel Endejan* Andrei Kirilenko*** * Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany ** Department of Geography, Moscow State University *** Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science (currently, Purdue University, USA)

The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Methodology IPCC Scenarios Analysis of Food Geography Food import/export Consumption patterns Climate models Population, economic trends GLASS Model - WaterGAP model - GAEZ model Emission trends Climate scenario s Potential crop production Water withdrawals Water availability Extremes of river runoff Historical climate variability Import/export between regions Area affected: by severe pressure on water resources by increasing extremes of runoff Area affected by bad harvest years Number of people affected by bad harvest years. Future climate variability

Current 2020s 2070s Change in production (%)