27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement DG TREN Particulates Consortium Lemnos, September 2003 Neville Thompson, Technical Coordinator, CONCAWE FEMG Comments on: 1) Data Analysis 2) Deliverable 14

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Data Analysis  Particulates data being examined by Shell statistician with experience from EPEFE, also chairman of CEC Statistics Group  Wealth of data available  Only summary parameters for main test cycles examined so far  Full analysis carried out on CONCAWE and AVL data  Screening only on main database  First step is to review data for consistency, trends and outliers  Raw data plots prior to developing means and statistics  Several details need clarification in next update to the data-base  Statistician will need to work closer with LAT/partners

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Approach to data analysis  First analysis carried out on CONCAWE (Shell) and AVL data  Data used for Deliverable 14  3 repeats carried out on all fuels/engines tested using block design  Arithmetic means used for mass data, geometric means for number counts  Error bars contructed based on pooled SDs and 1.4*SE as in EPEFE  For diesel, where error bars do not overlap we can be 95% confident that there is a difference between the fuels/engines  Gasoline data is currently plotted on the same basis for comparison but this is optimistic in view of lower number of tests  Main data-base  Differences in data – number of repeats, order of testing, different tasks of different partners, cycles tested, outliers make statistical treatment a challenge  Additional spreadsheet developed to enable overview of data by engine and fuel  Initial plots prepared based on mean, min and max data

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement AVL data – HD Diesel - ESC reg PM

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement CONCAWE data – LD Diesel - NEDC reg PM

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement AVL data – ESC ELPI Total N, stages 1-7

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement CONCAWE data – NEDC ELPI Total N, stages 1-7

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement AVL data – ESC SMPS data N 30

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement CONCAWE data – 120 km/h - SMPS data N 30

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Instrument comparison - Summary statistics AVL HD data

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Instrument comparison - Summary statistics CONCAWE LD data

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement MAIN DATA

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Variation in number of repeats carried out by different labs

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Order of testing varied between labs

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – LD Diesel - NEDC - PM  LD data covers well the newer technology vehicles  Weak on older technologies as a result of INRETS dropping out

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – LD Diesel - NEDC - ELPI

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – LD Gasoline - NEDC - ELPI

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – HD - ESC reg PM

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – HD - ETC reg PM

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Full database – HD - ESC - ELPI

27/06/02 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Deliverable 14 - Effects on particulate emissions and relevance of fuel quality for emission factors  First draft of Deliverable 14 was prepared and circulated in July based on data then available from CONCAWE (Shell) and AVL  Simple means, no statistics  Provided an outline structure for the Deliverable and preliminary conclusions  Only comment was from LAT to update with data from other partners who had tested fuel effects, when available  CONCAWE and AVL data analysis now updated with error bars  Arithmetic means for mass data, geometric means for number counts  Error bars contructed based on pooled SDs and 1.4*SE as in EPEFE  For diesel, where error bars do not overlap we can be 95% confident that there is a difference between the fuels/engines  Gasoline data is currently shown on the same basis for comparison but this is optimistic in view of lower number of tests  Deliverable also updated with mean results from other partners  Fuel trends seem to be broadly consistent, but some additional parameters  Several details on the data still to be resolved  Statistics will follow when the overall data-base is finalised