Transition From Oil Dependency to Community Resilience Transition Derby UK. Presented by : Dave Ackroyd

So what is Transition? Began 5 years ago in Totnes Growing fast now over 2000 communities worldwide Vision of our future with less fossil energy Positive vision, of a happier, healthier, safer place to live

What others are doing England – 270 Scotland – 23 Wales – 32 Northern Ireland – 3 Ireland – 13 Australia – 27 Argentina – 1 Belgium – 1 Canada – 14 Chile – 1 France – 2 Holland – 1 Israel – 1 Italy – 4 Mexico – 1 Netherlands – 1 New Zealand – 34 South Africa – 2 Spain – 6 Sweden – 4 Switzerland – 1 United States - 55

Addicted to Fossil Fuels The developed world gets about 80% of its energy from Fossil Fuels 95% of our food is dependent on fossil fuels for fertiliser and pesticides (Oil is ancient sunlight)

and it’s not Sustainable… Climate Change End of Cheap Energy Energy Security

Climate Change Currently at ~388ppm & increasing 2ppm every year Must reduce to below 350ppm Requires 80-90% cuts in today's level of emission

Proof of Global Warming Underwear through the ages Victorian  Today

Peak Oil Hubbert’s Curve Dr M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geologist In 1956, he predicted that US Oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970

USA First to Peak US oil production peaked in 1971

Not a Theory 43 of the 58 largest oil-producing countries are passed their peak. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

End of Cheap Oil Oil discovery peaked in 1965 – 4 decades ago. We consume 5 barrels of oil for every 1 we discover

The Shortfall Source: IEA World Energy Outlook “It is definitely depressing, more than depressing, I would say alarming… just to stay where we are in 20 years, means to find and develop 4 new Saudi Arabias, and this is a major challenge!” – Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, IEA Sept 2010

Peak Oil Warnings UKERC warns that, almost unequivocally, peak production will occur before 2030, with a significant risk of this happening before UKERC Dec 2009 By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MB/d –US Joint Operating Environment report, Feb 2010 Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise… for example in food supplies… Price shocks could be seen in almost every industry and throughout all stages of the supply chain. - The Bundeswehr Transformation Center, Aug 2010

Energy Security We will be importing 80% of our energy by 2020

Energy Security Where are we going to get our energy? From Russia with Love Invade an oil rich country Cosy up to dictatorships

Replacing Conventional Oil “ “There isn't anything conceivable that could replace conventional oil, in the same quantity and energy density: We can't mine oil sands in sufficient quantity because there isn't enough water to process them. We can't grow bio-fuels because there would be no land left to grow food. Solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal don't yield enough energy. Hydrogen (from water) takes more energy to make than it can yield. Coal has massive climate change implications and supply will peak soon too. Nuclear too little too late and is a derivative of oil.” Source: Miller, BP Exploration UK, Jan 2004

From Oil Dependency to Community Resilience Climate change makes transition an imperative, Peak Oil makes it inevitable. Our future will be energy constrained, it makes sense to plan for it.

Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness Denial A Sense of Bewilderment Fear Depression Outbreaks of Nihilism Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions

Cultural Visions Our visions of a future with out oil tend to fall into two camps: Techno-UtopiaTechno-Utopia Something wonderful will happen and we’ll discover an everlasting source of energy. Something wonderful will happen and we’ll discover an everlasting source of energy. Or ArmageddonOr Armageddon A mad dash by nations to secure resources. A mad dash by nations to secure resources. Wars. Pestilence. Wars. Pestilence. Economic Collapse Economic Collapse Climate catastrophe Climate catastrophe

Transition Opportunity for a better Society 1. Positivity - Envision a positive, happier, healthier, and safer place to live 2. Resilience - We have lost the ability to cope with energy shocks 3. Empowerment - We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now 4. Creativity – build communities that are more enriching, satisfying and connected.

Re-localise Food Production rapidly expand local food production, proactively reduce fossil fuel use in the food system, promote local food networks that bring producers and consumers together.Education Increase number of smaller local schoolsIncrease number of smaller local schools Emphasize vocational subjects, building, cooking, horticultureEmphasize vocational subjects, building, cooking, horticulture Healthcare Promote local healthcare centres and the local production of medicines

Forest Garden Schools Silverhills Primary School Creating a food forest

Thank you. Transition Derby