Powerdown Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World Richard Heinberg

History and Background

Energy Slaves Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average: Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average: 8,000 pounds of oil8,000 pounds of oil 5,150 pounds of coal5,150 pounds of coal 4,700 pounds of natural gas4,700 pounds of natural gas 1/10th pound of uranium1/10th pound of uranium If one “person-power” is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr, this is the equivalent of 300 persons working around the clock for each of us. (from Youngquist) If one “person-power” is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr, this is the equivalent of 300 persons working around the clock for each of us. (from Youngquist)

America in 1950 World’s foremost oil producer World’s foremost oil producer World’s foremost oil exporter World’s foremost oil exporter World’s largest exporter of machine tools and manufactured goods World’s largest exporter of machine tools and manufactured goods World’s foremost creditor nation World’s foremost creditor nation Self-sufficient in nearly all resources Self-sufficient in nearly all resources

America in 2005 World’s foremost oil importer World’s foremost oil importer World’s foremost debtor nation World’s foremost debtor nation World’s foremost importer of manufactured goods and non-petroleum resources World’s foremost importer of manufactured goods and non-petroleum resources Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other countries Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other countries

Following its national oil production peak, the US was able to compensate by importing more oil from other nations. Following the global oil production peak, we will not be able to compensate by importing more oil from other planets.

Four Ways to Predict Peak 1. Calculate the half-way point of extraction, based upon estimates of the ultimately recoverable resource, or URR (Hubbert, Campbell)

Four Ways to Predict Peak 2. Count the number of years from peak of discovery to peak of extraction (Campbell)

Global Oil Discoveries ExxonMobil 2003

Four Ways to Predict Peak 3. Add up nation-by-nation peaks to arrive at the date for global peak (Richard Duncan)

Four Ways to Predict Peak 4. Compare new production capacity needed in the next few years with the production capacity now in development (Chris Skrebowski)

Chris Srebowski of Petroleum Review (London), in his 2004 study, “Oil Field Megaprojects,” calculates that there are 12.5 million barrels/day of new production capacity in development for the next five years. But 30 mb/d of new capacity will be needed to offset depletion. This suggests that the likely all-time global oil production peak will occur in 2007 or 2008 at the latest.

Energy Alternatives

US energy consumption by source Source: US Energy Information Agency

Renewable energy as share of total US energy consumption Source: US Energy Information Agency

Consequences of Global Oil Peak The Economy The Economy

Consequences of Global Oil Peak The Economy The Economy Transportation Transportation

Consequences of Global Oil Peak The Economy The Economy Transportation Transportation Food and Agriculture Food and Agriculture

Consequences of Global Oil Peak The Economy The Economy Transportation Transportation Food and Agriculture Food and Agriculture War and Peace War and Peace

Geopolitics

Map of Proved Oil Reserves

Oil Endowment Horseshoe

What Cheney knew in 1999 In a speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, then chairman of the world’s largest oil services company, Halliburton, presented the picture of world oil supply and demand to industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney stated, “there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.” Cheney ended on an alarming note: “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.” This is more than six times Saudi Arabia’s current output.

Likely Forms of Resource Wars Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations

Next Stop: Iran

Likely Forms of Resource Wars Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between consuming nations Between consuming nations

Economic Warfare China--Yuan pegged to the dollar; result: cheap Chinese imports, continuing loss of American jobs. Both China and US need MORE OIL!

Likely Forms of Resource Wars Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between consuming nations Between consuming nations Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources

Likely Forms of Resource Wars Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations Between consuming nations Between consuming nations Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources Asymmetrical warfare between rich consuming nations and non-state entities in producing nations Asymmetrical warfare between rich consuming nations and non-state entities in producing nations

Watch out for that BRIC

Sites of Coming Oil Wars? Middle East Middle East

Sites of Coming Oil Wars? Middle East Middle East West Africa West Africa

Sites of Coming Oil Wars? Middle East Middle East West Africa West Africa South America South America

Sites of Coming Oil Wars? Middle East Middle East West Africa West Africa South America South America Central Asia Central Asia

14 Characteristics of Fascism (Lawrence Britt) 1. Powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism. 2. Disdain for the importance of human rights. 3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause. 4. The supremacy of the military/avid militarism. 5. Rampant sexism. 6. A controlled mass media.

14 Characteristics of Fascism 7. Obsession with national security. 7. Obsession with national security. 8. Religion and ruling elite tied together. 8. Religion and ruling elite tied together. 9. Power of corporations protected. 9. Power of corporations protected. 10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated. 11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and the arts. 12. Obsession with crime and punishment. 13. Rampant cronyism and corruption. 14. Fraudulent elections.

What to do? Resist war and repression Resist war and repression Focus on local economy and governance Focus on local economy and governance Make international alliances Make international alliances Support media alternatives Support media alternatives

The Uppsala Protocol 1. No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce; 2. Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate. Proposed by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, Sweden Proposed by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, Sweden

There is no single “magic elixir.” However, there are possible strategies: Aim for maximum efficiency Aim for maximum efficiency Localize and decentralize Localize and decentralize Use alternatives now Use alternatives now Use less Use less Raise awareness: talk about the issue! Raise awareness: talk about the issue!

Priorities Ensure local food security Ensure local food security Ensure local water security Ensure local water security Reduce your need for transportation Reduce your need for transportation Support your local economy Support your local economy Foster local manufacturing of essential goods Foster local manufacturing of essential goods Plan for long-term emergency services Plan for long-term emergency services