Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan Michael J. Emmerton, ADB Team Leader - 24 May 2013

Energy Masterplanning Challenges Large land area Sparse population on the move Minerals Extraction (mines) Industrialization Natural Fibres Meat and milk Oil refining Minerals processing Industrial Parks (smelters)

Mongolia’s 15 Strategic Mineral Deposits

Mongolia’s Potential Electricity Intensification

Mongolia’s Potential Demand Growth

Combined Heat & Power Plants

Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient Compared to modern plant Water consumption high Pollutants high Thermal Efficiency CHP4 - total thermal efficiency ~ 55% Power-to-Heat ratio ~0.29

CHP Cogeneration & Condensing Products

Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient CHP4 Total thermal efficiency – 55% New CHP in Mongolia Heat production efficiency – 89% Electric power efficiency – 46.7% Total thermal efficiency – 59.7% CHP in continuous cogeneration mode Total thermal efficiency – 89%

Taishir Hydropower, Gobi Altai – 11MW

Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand All previous studies have compared a hydropower plant to a ‘hypothetic’ gas turbine operating at time of peak load Cost estimates have been varied and generally too low

Mongolia’s Expected HPP Capital Costs Project Capacity MW Production GWh Hydraulic Head (m) Crest Length (m) Cost $/kW Egiin ,827 Sheuren ,2002,969 Burin ,7003,251 Artset ,4003,362 Orkhon ,353 Erdene- Burin ,154 Chargait ,716 Maikhan no dam1,772 UB Pump S 100(102)224- 2,473

Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand Design optimization shows that an HPP c constructed on Sheuren river system has optimal design, from cost and energy perspective, if 390MW 1,260GWhr per annum Capacity factor ~ 55%

Sheuren HPP (300MW) Despatch May 2022

Newcom Salkhit Windpark – 50MW

Myth no. 3 – Mongolia’s Wind & Solar resources can be exploited to supply Asia Wind and solar PV suffers from intermittency In Mongolia there is little wind in winter months Across vast distances in Mongolia, and with a small capacity system, controlling a transmission grid with significant intermittent power sources is a complex undertaking

Diurnal Net Power Production (200MW Wind)

Economics of Energy Technology in Mongolia

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia Heat Supply A new CHP plant is the most economical heat supply for UB city Large Heat Only Boiler (HOB) is needed to bridge from now to 2018 Total investment in heat supply will be of the order of $3.5B (money of the day basis). Half of the Aimag heating systems need replacement within the next five years at a cost of around $ 150m.

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia Hydropower in 2022 Capacity 390MW, min 1,000GWh p.a. Est. Cost $900m Benefits Reduced operating costs More wind farms Provides opportunity for Mongolia to develop the capability to control system frequency across its vast transmission network

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia T&D Networks Strengthen to reduce energy losses, improve reliability Economic to supply mines up to 100MW if within 300km of existing grid In time create a Mongolian super-grid at 400kV to support industrial centres

Investment in Transmission & Distribution

Support Clean Energy Research Under Mongolian conditions Renewable energy technologies - solar heating schemes, geothermal schemes Involve the young and brightest engineers in interesting projects that support Mongolia’s future direction