Outlook of Brazilian Agriculture

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook of Brazilian Agriculture XVI Joint Meeting of the BRAZIL – JAPAN Economic Cooperation Committee September 23rd, 2013 Belo Horizonte – Minas Gerais, Brazil Data sources: USDA, FAO, CIA, UN, CONAB, MAFF

Agrex do Brasil (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”) Mitsubishi Corporation has acquired a Brazilian grain company. “Agrex do Brasil S/A” (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”) WHY ??? MA PI TO GO BA MT

World Demand for Grain Will Further Increase Example: Soybeans World Import Forecast 2013 ( 95 million tons ) 2023 ( 144 million tons ) Others Others EU 11mil (8%) EU 12mil (13%) Asia 72mil (76%) Asia 117mil (81%) In the next decade, the world will need to import soybeans 49 million tons MORE, or 52% INCREASE. Most of the incremental comes from Asia.

World Demand for Grain Will Further Increase World Population: Now: 7.1 billions 2023: 7.9 billions (2050: 10.0 billions) Improvement of Living Standard (Change of Dietary): 1kg of Egg = 3kg of grain 1kg of Poultry = 4kg of grain 1kg of Pork = 7kg of grain 1kg of Beef = 11kg of grain

Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ? Land Availability (million HA) Available Land in Brazil Available Used Expansion into Northeast and North

Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ? Historical Soybeans Yield (tons / ha) Brazil Argentine USA Among Brazil, Argentine and USA (the 3 major export countries), Brazil shows the least volatility. This proves that Brazil has the most stable / favorable conditions: Precipitation, Temperature, Solar Radiation, Soil, Crop Management, etc.

Brazil Will Supply This Demand Incremental Example: Soybeans World Export Forecast 2013 ( 95 million tons ) 2023 ( 144 million tons ) Others Others Argentine 6mil (7%) Argentine 18mil (12%) Brazil 41mil (43%) Brazil 64mil (44%) USA 36mil (38%) USA 44mil (30%) Sufficient Land Availability Favorable Weather Condition Plans for Logistics Developments These Make Brazil the further important grain supplier for the world

Other Agricultural Products Also Rely on Brazil Coffee Export Brazil 32% (World No.1) Orange Juice Export Brazil 81% (World No.1) Sugar Export Brazil 46% (World No.1) Poultry Export Brazil 36% (World No.1) Pork Export Beef Export Brazil 9% (World No.4) Brazil 17% (World No.2)

【Ref】 Value Chain “From Farm to Consumer”: Participate in every segment of the whole chain Overview the various markets as one ⇒ Define the markets needs / situation Grain Origination Logistics Export Import Processing Livestock Farms Meet Packing Consumer Retail