Name of presenter(s) or subtitle And they’re off…? Richard Jenkins Vice President, Corporate Director of Public Opinion Research.

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Presentation transcript:

Name of presenter(s) or subtitle And they’re off…? Richard Jenkins Vice President, Corporate Director of Public Opinion Research

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 2 Thoughts… Reversing a trend… turnout rises The Expectations Game and Big Mo Polls, Polls, Everywhere there’s Polls What next?

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 3 Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2006 Source: Elections Canada The irony of a turnout rebound during an election Canadians did not want

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 4 The Vote SeatsVotes Liberal %30% Conservative %36% NDP %18% Bloq %11% Other 116%

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 5 The Vote by Region LiberalCPCNDPBlocOther 2006+/-2006+/-2006+/-2006+/-2006+/- Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies/ territories Alberta B.C

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 6 If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing…? Unprecedented polling. Daily polling CPAC-SES Globe and Mail/CTV-Strategic Counsel Toronto Star-EKOS Other Decima Pollara Leger Environics

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 7 Comparing the Horserace: January 12 th

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 8 Comparing the Horserace: January 17 th

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 9 SES Polling

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 10 Strategic Counsel Polling

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 11 EKOS Polling

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 12 Strategic Counsel versus SES Polling: Liberals

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 13 Strategic Counsel versus SES Polling: PC

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 14 Variation SES Ranked ballot Daily numbers reported on three day moving averages 400 eligible voters each day Strategic Counsel Daily numbers reported on three day moving averages 500 interviews per night