Future International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements over the period of 2010 to for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute -

Environmental Security   preventing or repairing military damage to the environment;   preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts; and   protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself defined as environmental viability for life support with three sub-elements:

Purpose of the study   identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the U.S. Army's Transformation efforts in the mid-term ( ) and the long-term ( ) time frames   anticipate potential military requirements that could emerge in response to these issues.

Study Process - Meeting with Military Attachés to Washington, D.C. to introduce the study - A three-round Delphi: Questionnaire - round 1: likelihood and importance of emerging environmental issues and when they might affect military policy or procedures due to security concerns, or statutory, regulatory, or treaty requirements Three-day workshop with futurists, environmentalists, and scientists (day 1); military attachés (day 2); U.S. military personnel (day 3) Questionnaire - round 3: Eight environmental security developments and potential military requirements to address them

Demographics

Environmental security developments - distillation used in Rd3 questionnaire - 1. Biotechnology is used to build new kinds of weapons. 2. A major military conflict over water is understood by world leaders as extremely plausible. 3. A new and/or reemerging disease threat or outbreak triggers conflict. 4. Increasing emphasis on the sustainable use of natural resources causes a complete revision of military operations including construction, base operations, and training management policies. 5. The aftereffects of biological, chemical, or nanotech weapons or a nuclear incident require a massive cleanup or other large-scale military response. 6. A post-conflict battlefield remediation treaty is implemented. 7. Military forces are given a new role in environmental conflict prevention and/or resolution. 8. Future conflicts will be driven by rogue states and terrorists, changing the nature of environmental challenges facing military forces. A rogue nation develops doctrine to target environmental quality as an objective of warfare.

Four themes were apparent in the list of requirements:  Need for collaboration with other agencies;  Need for training;  Need to develop new technology;  Possible emergence of new environmental-related missions.

Highlights   the only development that was rated very high for both importance and likelihood was: A major military conflict breaks out over water resources/quality.   The developments with the highest disagreement regarding the year it might occur were:  New sources and management of energy alter global political power relations.  A global push for environmental friendly non-lethal weapons emerges.  Artificial genetic pollution is recognized as a global environmental safety or occupational health threat

Highlights (cont.)   disagreement about the degree of military responsibility vs. civilian responsibility for environmental security   strong sentiment that the role of the military is distinct from environmental issues   agreement that a military doctrine for the prevention of military attacks on the environment needs to be developed by the UN   national sovereignty issues must be faced and resolved   under what conditions could environmental damage be so severe to be of concern to all of humanity and intervention authorized by the UN Security Council?   high correlation between the implementation dates and the perceived effectiveness of the requirements

  divergent opinions of civilian vs. military over control of water systems to prevent a crisis or protect them during a crisis   creating effective “off-switches” for bio-weapons and nano-weapons will be an on-going intellectual arms race   protection against bio-weapons: preventing the motivation of their use through general education to enlighten the public, and the mitigation of hostilities among nations, societies, and social groups Highlights (cont.)

Meta recommendations   Perform a gap analysis   Expand simulation in training   Prevent environmentally related conflicts   Non-environmental impacting weapons   Improve the R&D cooperation   Increase consideration given to international existing and upcoming treaties