Introduction Trends in global cocoa production Trends in global cocoa production Trends in global cocoa consumption Trends in global cocoa consumption Using the resulting supply/demand balances, international cocoa prices Using the resulting supply/demand balances, international cocoa prices

World Cocoa Production, 1900/ /00

Share of World Cocoa Production by Country, 1999/00

Côte d'Ivoire — Cocoa Production, 1975/ /00

Ghana — Cocoa Production, 1975/ /00

Indonesia — Cocoa Production, 1975/ /00

Brazil — Cocoa Production, 1975/ / /00

Nigeria — Cocoa Production, 1975/ /00

Cameroon — Cocoa Production, 1975/ /00

Malaysia — Cocoa Production, 1975/ / / /761978/791981/821984/851987/881990/911993/941996/97 Production Trend Crop

Ecuador — Cocoa Production, 1975/ / /00

Summary Global cocoa production is highly concentrated Significant expansion limited to the three largest producers Continued concentration in production therefore likely Resulting in increased risk to global supply The threat from cocoa pests and diseases is increasing

Growth in Global Cocoa Consumption 1947/ /99

Per Capita Cocoa Consumption versus GNP per capita

Cocoa Consumption by Region, 1997/98

Estimated Per Capita Cocoa Consumption, 1997/98

Growth in Regional Cocoa Consumption, 1981/ /98

Consumption Summary Consumption grown rapidly - rising incomes and populations Growth mainly from the major markets of W. Europe and N. America Increased impetus for growth from emerging markets Economic crises slowed growth in these regions but long term prospects bright Chinese demand growth good potential, but only 180 million people have adequate income Russia - large potential, although the macroeconomic situation uncertain Brazil is increasing consumption

Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 3% per Annum

Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 3% per Annum ,000 1,500 2,000 2, /992000/012002/032004/052006/072008/09 Price (US$ per mt) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Stock:Grind Ratio Price

Antioxidant Foods ORAC Units per 100g Dark Chocolate13,120 Milk Chocolate6,740 Prunes5,770 Broccoli890 Note: ORAC = Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity Source:USDA and Journal of American Chemical Society

Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 4.5% per Annum

Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 4.5% per Annum Stock:Grind Ratio ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, /992000/012002/032004/052006/072008/09 Price (US$ per mt) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Stock:Grind RatioPrice

Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 1.5% per Annum

Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 1.5% per Annum Stock:Grind Ratio ,000 1,200 1,400 1, /992000/012002/032004/052006/072008/09 Price (US$ per mt) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Stock:Grind RatioPrice

Outlook Summary 3% growth: relatively balanced supply-demand outlook after 1999/00. Prices reach $1,979/tonne by % growth: four years of deficit follow the 1999/00 crop. Prices reach $2,562/tonne by % growth: surplus continues into 2000/01 after which low prices curtail production leading to 3 years deficit. Prices reach $1,466/ tonne by 2010.

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