 Ground operations  Air Operations  Negotiations Current Situation

Israeli Objectives PoliticalMilitary  Demonstrate Israel will  Restore quiet  Demilitarize Gaza  Minimize civilian casualities Reduce Hamas miliary capabilities:esp. Rockets, tunnels Limit casualities/damage inside Israel

Hamas Objectives Political Military Break Isolation/siege Free prisoners Demonstrate strength/resolve Re-establish resistence credentials  Inflict damage on Israel  Miantain rocket firing  Present robust defense agaisnt Israel ground incursion v  Preserve forces

Strategy: Israel  Use air and ground power to compel Hamas to accept quiet  Damage Palestinian military forces and infrastructure with intense air and limites ground operations  Conduct casualty sensitive operations  Conduct media campaign to justify opeartions and limit damge from civilian casualities.

Strategy: Hamas  Conduct sustained rocket firing into the depth of Israel  Disrupt Israel civilian life/economy, inflict damage  Achieve « image of victory »: attack on Israel twon, kill large number of soldiers, hostage taking  Prevent any deep Israeli penetration of Gaza on the ground  Attrite Israeli ground forces  Conduct media campaign to paint Israel as agressor, limit Israeli military activity, end war with favorable terms.

The Rocket/Air War (1) Rocket forces and operations ForcesLaunch Operations  Qassam Brigades  PIJ  PRC  Joint operations(Qassam/PIJ)  Sustained fire: 1500 plus rkts, avg about 120 rockets per day  Population center  Deep target  Some military targets, esp close to Gaza border

The Rocket/Air War (2) Rockets vs Iron Dome  Iron Dome capabilities: engage threat rockets only  Iron Dome batteries: 10 deployes(3 during conflict)  Intercepts: 300(in first ten days  Accuracy/eefectiveness: claimed 86% of threat rockets

The Rocket/Air War (3) Israeli air Campaign  Air vs the rocket system: production, movement, storage, launchers, launch units.  Air vs the Hamas infrastructure: leadership, C2, weapons storage, combat forces, tunnels  Itotal strikes: 2037 (first 10 days)  Avg per day: 200 plus

The Ground War  Engineering warfare  Tunnels: 60 plus, infiltration, storage, smuggling, communications  IEDs: one of Hamas most important defensive measures  Tank vs anti-tank  Close combat: direct fire engagements between troop  Infiltration: into Israel(5 attemps(), inside Gaza, sig Israeli KI  Fire Support: used by both side  Suicide actions: a few

The Media War(1): Israel Themes Operations  It’s a « terrorist » attack on Israeli civilians  Criticism of operations not justifie  Israel military operations are effective  Israel has many supporters  Info on Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians: rockets, infiltration  Info on « precision » ops, media on Hamas use of civilians as human shields  Release of info on Isreali Strike results: targets hit, damage, casualities  Media releases on demonstrations, statements of support for Israel

The Media War(2): Hamas Themes Operations  Israel aggression against civilians  Hamas military operations are succeeding  Israeli military operations are failing  The whole world support Hams  Use of Hamas and other media to show civilian casualties/manipulation of social media  Claims of successful opeartions on Hamas and other Palestinian media  Media coverage of CONTINUING Hams military ops, attention to Israeli military casualties  Media coverage of anti-Israeli/pro- Hamas demonstrations

Lessons Learned: Israel  Air power not enough against hardened enemy: Physical and mental  Iron Dome does not completly solve the rocket problem  Significant civilian casualities will occur regardless of the measures taken  Incrementalism in ground ops gives the enemy an advantage  Continuing challenge of urban combat  Tunnels wil be a venue of combat  Don’t neglect the ground forces

Lessons Learned: Hamas  In a crisis, initiate the fighting  Israel is heavily constrained by the civilian population in Gaza  Srocket firing/mil ops can continue even under intense air attack  Media war is crucial  Validation of Hamas theory of combat

Game Changers  Iron Dome: Negating hamas capabilities to cause casualities/damage inside Israel  Hamas close combat capabilities: a significant shock with effects  Tunnels System: creating strategic effects Protection of military infrastructure/forces against IDF Cross border penetration for strategic purposes

Near Term Developments  Continued negotiations: Humanitarian ceasefire Ceasefire to negotiate arrangement Comprehensive arrangement  Continued military operations. Israel and Hamas  Expanded military operations: Israel?