Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vilnius

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 Andreu Ulied, MCRIT, Lead Partner ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vlinius

ET2050 Consortium

From Project Specifications: The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level, having 2050 as time horizon

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) ET2050 Methodology

ET2050 Forecast Models Demography MULTIPOLES ( ) Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 IOM Economy MASST3 ( ) Econometric: social, macroeconomic and Territorial (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI Transport MOSAIC ( ) Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices (up to 2030) EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT Land-use METRONAMICA ( ) Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050) EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS Integrated SASI ( ) Dynamic System (up to 2050) ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3 S&W

Population Change by MULTIPOLES Population : from 514 to 530 inh.

GDP Growth (Baseline) by MASST3 GDP a.a. : 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 %

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population and growing less that EU average Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Loosing Population

Loosing Population and growing less that EU average Growing less that EU average Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Loosing Population

Loosing Population and growing less that EU average Growing less that EU average Growing more that EU average Increasing Polarisation on Global Gateways Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

A European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities

B European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities

C European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions

Scenarios 2030, the Crisis Aftermath Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for rd December 2013 Vlinius

Summary of assumptions in the scenarios “Baseline scenario: No change in economic fundamentals and structure; no change in policies A: “Megas” scenario: Market driven scenario; budget reduced for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in European large cities. B: “Cities” scenario: Present welfare system reinforced; budget maintained for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in second rank cities. C: “Regions” scenario: Strong public welfare system; budget significantly increased for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in rural and cohesion area 21

22 Conclusions on aggregate GDP growth (2030) New 12 countries grow more with respect to Old 15 countries, but less than before. The B “Cities” scenario is the most expansionary: territorial capital is better exploited than in the other scenarios New 12 countries grow less in the C “Regions” scenario..

Conclusions on Regional Disparities in the Baseline 23 Total regional disparities will increase In the past 20 years convergence among EU countries could more than offset increases in intra- national disparities This will not happen in the future (and is already visible during the present crisis)

Conclusions on National Disparities in the Baseline 24 Eurostat MASST3

Total Disparities in Scenarios “Cities” Scenario is the most cohesive! ”Megas” Scenario is less cohesive Total Disparities A “megas” B “cities” C “regions”

Between Countries Disparities in the scenarios C “regions” B “cities” A “megas”

Inside Countries Disparities (Theil Index by Scenario) ) “Regions” scenario is the most cohesive, as expected, followed by the “Cities” C “regions” B “cities” A “megas”

Sensitivity analysis on the Baseline Scenario Baseline is not meant to be the most likely scenario. A sensitivity analysis was run, changing single exogenous assumptions inside the MASST model: 1.Higher internal inflation rates in New 12 Countries with respect to Old 15:  higher control on wages, productivity  external competitiveness 2.Increased tax rates in “vicious” countries (too high public debt):  lower growth potential 3.Higher FDI increase in New 12 countries:  higher growth? Not proved: new investments generate higher imports)

Sensitivity analysis: lower inflation rates in NMCs Note: Inflation in New 12 countries is lowered from 5% (baseline) to 3%. Baseline assumption for Old15 member countries is 2.5%. This lever has strong effects on growth rates in NMCs; new assunptions generate a strong decrease in inter-national disparities and a light increase in tot. disparities Dotted lines refer to the Baseline Scenario Total reg. disparities Between-country Within country disparities

Higher taxation in wide-public debt countries This measure generates higher inter-national disparities Baseline scenario Total disparities Within-country Between-country

Scenarios 2050 Klaus Spiekermann, S&W ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for rd December 2013 Vlinius

Exploratory Scenarios & Variants for Spatial orientation of the scenarios Extreme Framework conditions 0 Baseline 1 Economic decline 2 Technologic progress 3 Energy/ Climate Costs Promotion of global regions A0A0A1A1A2A2A3A3 Promotion of urban regions B0B0B1B1B2B2B3B3 Promotion of rural and peripheral regions C0C0C1C1C2C2C3C3

Baseline Scenario The A (MEGAs) B (Cities) C (Regions) 1.0 % % of total EU Structural Funds European Funds Allocation across NUTS3

Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051 Scenario A: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051

Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051 Scenario B: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051

Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051 Scenario C: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051

Regional disparities reduced by funds allocation C2 B2

GDP growth depens on Framework Conditions C2 B2 C2 B2

Summary comparison Scenarios Policy Comparison

Participatory process towards Vision 2050 ValerieBiot, IGEAT ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for rd December 2013 Vlinius

VISION Scenarios Scientifically-driven exercice Politically-driven process Inspiring policy making by territorial foresight

Process towards the European Territorial Vision Scientific input from the scenario exercise Review of European and World strategies & policies Interaction with ESPON MC Interaction with Stakeholders

Brussels, 28 September 2012 Kraków, November 2011 Aalborg, June 2012 Paphos, 4-6 December 2012 ESPON Monitoring Committee Workshops Dublin, June 2013

A B C

A B C

A European Territorial Vision 2050 Carlo Sessa, ISIS ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for rd December 2013 Vlinius

Outline of the European Territorial Vision Values and policy paradigms Europe in the World Europe and its Neighborhoods Changes for Europe as a whole The Future of the European Territory European Territorial Governance

2050 Vision: summing up framework elements New borders of the EU: Deep and sustainable democracy in an enlarged EU and EFTA space Co-development with Neighbouring Countries (namely the Euro-Mediterranean) Technology induced changes: «everywhere connectivity» will change our social, learning and work, manufacturing, energy, daily habits and mobility towards more flexible time use and polycentric landscapes Demographic, economic and social changes: ageing everywhere in the world, except in Africa (especially SSA), deceleration of growth and trade of goods, more services & intangibles, «smartphone»-centred lifestyle, socio-ecological transition towards green and blue economy, within Europe, a more educated & mobile & Creative workforce and diversified jobs. Energy, Transport and climate changes: «low» but not «post-carbon» Europe; smart and sustainable transport; adaptation to climate change (mitigation is not enough).

2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements EU governance changes: EU economic recovery heading to more integration («out of need, not out of love»), but with a lean model Paradigm shifts: qualitative more than quantitative growth and productivity concepts, efficient spending on education, health and other territorial services (outcomes measured with beyond GDP indicators). Convergence of GDP is no more the «totem»/paradigm indicator, territorial efficiency/diversity and territorial cohesion objectives are the new totems. Polycentric development: More connectivity within and across different urban regions’ layers: large cities (less «Pentagon-centric» network), medium-to-small networks of cities, compact cities. Urban sprawl is halted. More «rurban regions», but also revitilized «bioregions»

2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements A new Cohesion Strategy: Complementarity between EU territorial cohesion funds and other EU solidarity funds (to prevent financial crisis, to enable energy interdependence, EU border management solidarity). Place-based approach in the different functional regions of Europe, within and across the national borders. Territorial capital and European public goods agenda, based on high-level policy negotiation and agreed criteria of EU-wide relevance, place-based nature and verifiability (with “beyond GDP” impact assessment indicators)

Which EU Cohesion Policy after 2020? EU Cohesion Policy Reform after 2020 Place-based territorial approach (too complicated for the EU level to master)? Sectoral approach for funding & monitoring infrastructure (e.g. energy, transport) and social (e.g.education, health) investments? Purely «solidarity» approach (EU funding MS to compensate for extra-costs of implementing EU common priorities)? How to blend these approaches in the context of a more integrated EU? EU has to cope with global and territorial challenges, while closing the democratic gap between the EU and the European citizens

2020

2030

2050

A « New Generation » of Cohesion Policies Jacek Szlachta, WSE ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for rd December 2013 Vlinius

Europe will successfully manage to overcome negative trends ahead (rural depopulation, growing regional disparities, not efficient policy making...) and valorise the assets of the different cities and regions The Vision for 2050 assumes a Successful Europe

EU Cohesion Policy is necessary to achieve key values proposed by Territorial Vision 2050: Deep and sustainable democracy, Sustainable development, Well being and quality of life, Solidarity, Territorial efficiency, Territorial cohesion. Cohesion Policy matters to achieve the Vision

Using the concept “more for less” – declining budget and widening scope of intervention (competitiveness and cohesion) Facing growing disparities after 2008 – weak and peripheral regions more fragile to external shocks than strong and central regions But… Cohesion Policy in (1):

Observing different development trajectories of European Union during economic crises Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern Testing new territorial tools concerning urban policy, local development, Territorial Impact Assessment etc. But… Cohesion Policy in (2):

Facing critical development in neighbouring countries from south and east (Frontex and partnership) what impacts border regions Facing growing administrative burden for implementing authorities Being unable to establish necessary relations with intervention within second pillar of Common Agriculture Policy But… Cohesion policy in (3):

Regional and National institutional empowerment Place-based focus & open endogenous development Sensitivity to macro-economic cycles Focus on local and regional infrastructure Land-Use regulatory instruments in vulnerable areas Productive investments in Neighboring Countries How Cohesion policies may be reformed in the long-run ?

COTER 9th October 2013 DGREGIO EC, 25 June 2013 European Parliament, 25 June 2013 Stakeholders, 11 October 2013 Mrs. Hubner, 26 February Nov 2012 in Warsaw European Commission, Parliament and Committee of Regions

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information: (working documents)