Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion February 3, 2000 Presented By: Angie Kelic Research Sponsored By The Lean Aerospace Initiative Product Development Focus Team

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Outline l Motivation l Technology Insertion l Key Questions l Hypothesis l Technology Roadmaps Study l Theoretical Basis l Preliminary Results l Next Steps

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Motivation l The problem –Long product development timelines –Obsolescence in newly operational systems –Difficulty in upgrade programs l Varying technology timescales (clockspeeds) –Slower developing (example: airframe) –Faster developing (example: electronics)

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology What We Do Know About Technology Insertion Charted territory: l Cost/benefit analyses l NASA Technology Insertion Milestones and Technology Readiness Levels Where the problems lie: l Technologies not developed with current application in mind l Unexpected impacts on other parts of the system l No well established technology insertion process l Incorrect assessment of technology “readiness”

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Key Questions l How can knowledge of new technology be brought to bear on the product development process? l How can technology readiness be determined effectively and consistently? l How does one determine the side effects of introducing new technology? “Our technology roadmaps tell us when to insert new technology”

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Hypothesis Technology roadmaps can be used to effectively predict technology performance and manage technology insertion

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Roadmaps Study l Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? l How are roadmaps developed and by whom? l Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? l Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? l Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Theoretical Basis l Clockspeed - Fine –“fruit flies” – supply chain management l Technology forecasting - Irvine and Martin –Three levels of forecasting in industry –macro-level: broad trends, typically conducted by government agencies - DoD –sector-level forecasts: typically conducted by industrial associations, or multi-client consultancy organizations - Sematech, NCAT, AIAA, IEEE –specific research forecasts relating to particular technologies or new product lines - companies

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Do Roadmaps Exist? l YES!! l Two types: –investment direction roadmaps –how to spend research dollars –detailed technology roadmaps –predicting technology characteristics –combination of Delphi method and historical trend analysis l Varying levels of implementation

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Roadmaps Study l Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? l How are roadmaps developed and by whom? l Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? l Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? l Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Detailed Technology Roadmaps l Experts on the technology make the roadmap l Information from array of sources –trade journals –information from suppliers –R&D –DoD, trade organization roadmaps l Review –peers, suppliers, upper management

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Roadmapping Process Information 1. Gather 2. Develop 3.Review 4. Refine 5. Distribute 6. Use?

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Roadmaps Study l Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? l How are roadmaps developed and by whom? l Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? l Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? l Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Are They Effective in Prediction? l Gather old roadmaps –various technologies –roadmaps and updates l Examine variance in predictions l Examine actual state of the art for predicted year l Example: Semiconductor Industry Association Roadmaps

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology SIA Roadmaps for Semiconductors

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Next Steps l Validate and refine the process description l Gather more roadmap data –Determine accuracy l Examine variance and attempt a correlation with technology characteristics l Participants to date: HP, Raytheon, ACC, Textron, AlliedSignal, Boeing, Sematech, Northrop- Grumman, Saab

PD Kelic ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Roadmaps Study l Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? l How are roadmaps developed and by whom? l Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? l Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? l Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?