Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia Speaker Conference Plenary

Two most powerful industries :. Technology I C T. Energy Oil & gas Two most powerful industries :. Technology I C T. Energy Oil & gas

Industry secure future ? No Not the way it is Industry secure future ? No Not the way it is

What must change ? Can it change ? What must change ? Can it change ?

Rate of Change Rate of Change every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology every day : 15 million new web pages every 5 days : new product / service Amount of change in one day our Grandparents had in one year Younger means faster

Technology e.g. by % types of jobs then do not exist now because 80 % technology not yet imagined Driving all Drivers of Change

What’s pushing the industry :. Political power shift. Global economic shift. Global values shift. O & G Big Rollover What’s pushing the industry :. Political power shift. Global economic shift. Global values shift. O & G Big Rollover

O & G Big Rollover : Supply > Demand Supply > Demand

Three Wise Monkeys Three Wise Monkeys Oil Companies : - hear no depletion Oil Companies : - hear no depletion Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion

Typical Oil Depletion Curve Norway (North Sea) Werner Zittel, LBST

Saudi Reserves Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons February 2004

Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004 Douglas - Westwood Ltd Cambridge UK Study : World oil forecast beset with reserves shortfalls

ASPO Newsletter 40 April Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas Oil discovery Oil production Forecast ?

Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports IHS and O & GJ Remaining Reserves Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin

Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played ? " Do you wish to : Kill your career Kill your career Head the redundancy list Head the redundancy list Be blamed for starting the panic ?" Be blamed for starting the panic ?" Chris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum

Or is Big Rollover : ( tick one ) a) Only part of humungous dilemma a) Only part of humungous dilemma b) Forcing too rapid change b) Forcing too rapid change c) Change to what ? c) Change to what ? d) All too scary d) All too scary e) All of the above or e) All of the above or f) Nonsense f) Nonsense

Everyone agrees : Change is inevitable. Change is inevitable. Your choice : Understand forces of change Understand forces of change or or Be victim of future. Be victim of future.

What’s pushing the industry :. Political power shift. Global economic shift. Global values shift. O & G Big Rollover What’s pushing the industry :. Political power shift. Global economic shift. Global values shift. O & G Big Rollover

Global Economic power Global Economic power

Economic domination 200 yrs

to Western Pacific Rim to Western Pacific Rim

Global Cultural power Global Cultural power

Christian domination 500 yrs Christian domination 500 yrs 

Estimated 2 billion people watched world media

to Confucian / Islam influence to Confucian / Islam influence  

Fastest robanoid

Chi master class with MIT engineers

Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Shifting Global Values

About Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world pop n : no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Gap : Age Generations Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism economic rationalists : profit material values : tangibles science as religion : rational Generation X 30 – 45 yrs clones of Boomers : materialists or copy younger : sustainability

Four generations : Three worlds DotComs yrs Sustainability global identity co opitalism relationships holistic win - win – win Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” Gap : Age Generations

Chinese Technology Centre

Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual. no limits. no boundaries. parallel universes . quantum everything. invent their world. beyond our imagining. Indigo children

Gap : Globally Networked Gap : Globally Networked access all knowledge empowered confident passionately committed global view future one planet : one future

Impact for Energy Industry Impact for Energy Industry transiting two worlds - accelerating values shifting to sustainability Big Rollover value driven cooperation not competition young non negotiators relationships : consumers partners innovators

Impact for Aus Energy Industry Impact for Aus Energy Industry industry leader - how to’s global location - Asian partners values shifting to sustainability   not changing fast enough   economic rationalist power   Big Rollover not on agenda   “ She’ll be right, mate.” Science.

Thriving with change : Thriving with change :

Thank you Thank you

Very special note of appreciation to Bruce Robinson for his impeccable knowledge regarding global Oil Depletion and his generosity in sharing it. Thank you, Bruce. annimac