Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012 ITF Transport Outlook Meeting the needs of 9 billion people Transforming Transportation Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy Washington DC 26 January 2012

Global passenger transport activity 2000 – 2050 Index of pkm (2000 = 100) 2 High: European saturation levels in BRICs Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICs Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

Global passenger transport activity Meeting the needs of 9 billion people Outlook fraught with uncertainty over such a long period Global passenger-km increase 3-4 times by 2050 Outside OECD pkm could increse 5 or 6 fold Range is not measure of uncertainty but illustrates potential impact of modest changes in assumptions Low scenario – IEA base case in WEO 2008, Emerging economies reach Japanese levels of car ownership and use levels High scenario: European saturation levels Share of car trips seems set to rise from 50% 3

Aviation Medium term in line with IEA and IATA Longer term: Low scenario lower than IATA especially in OECD countries High OECD continues to grow non-OECD accelerates with deregulation and open skies High is still much lower than aircraft makers forecasts 4

Global freight transport activity, Index of tkm (2000 = 100) 5 Low: Dematerialisation of growth High: Constant freight intensity Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

Freight Transport Activity Global freight tonne-km to rise 2.5 – 3.5 times by 2050 Low scenario: Dematerialisation of growth, eg shift to services High scenario: GDP growth continues at 2005 freight intensity levels Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight intensive growth path, so full upside risk not reflected in graph 6

High Scenarios Best interpreted as where demand would like to go Realistic? Policy intervention? Eg fast urbanisation might slow growth of car ownership and use High energy prices would suppress But high scenarios far from impossible 7

Impact of Economic Crisis USA External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre- crisis peak Jun-08 (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted) 8 Sep-11 Jun-11 Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database

Impact of Economic Crisis Total trade by sea and air in US 2 years to recover, but now flatlining or falling again End of stimulus, cooling of Chinese growth, in Europe bite of austerity Outlook incorporated 5 year shift Next will look at longer stagnation 9

EU External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-crisis peak (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted) 10 Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database

Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries (halfway case between high and low scenarios) 11 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

Global CO 2 emissions from transport index (2000 = 100) 12 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version High: European car saturation levels in BRICs air liberalisation Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICs and dematerialisation

Global CO 2 emissions from transport CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvement Increase 2.5 to 3 times 13

Source: Car Fuel Economy/CO 2 Targets March 2011

Global CO 2 emissions from transport Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy improvement around the world, eg through continues progress with emissions standards would stabilise emissions GFEI target 8 l/100km ave new fleet economy in 2008 rise to 4 l/100km in 2030; whole fleet 2005 Impressive but not enough to for IPCC 450ppm CO2 limit 15

Average LDV on-road fuel-intensity, baseline and stabilization of emissions (litres gasoline equivalent per 100km) 16 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

Peak Travel? Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1970 – 2009 index (1990 = 100) 17 Source: ITF 2011 Transport Outlook from Household Survey Data

Peak travel? Evidence of reduced responsiveness of car and light truck travel to increasing incomes in advanced economies As the effect of income on travel (vkm) diminishes, it leaves a larger role to other determinants such as fuel prices, urbanisation, ageing and network management But economic cycle visible in US in particular And income distribution may have a large role. Income growth in last decade concentrated on wealthiest 10%. Incomes decreased in many of the lower deciles. 18

Peak travel? High income households are less responsive due to saturation, low income households very responsive Whether or not growing income translates into more driving (VMT) thus also depends on the distribution of income growth Uncertainty over future income likely to play a role in medium term Demographics becoming increasingly important These factors have strong implications for the projection of long run transport demand 19

Passenger Modal Split, 2005 and 2050 halfway case between high and low scenario, p-km (%) 20 OECDNon-OECD Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

Freight modal split by region, 2005 and 2050 halfway case between high and low scenarios, t-km (%) 21 OECDNon-OECD Source: International Transport Forum calculations using MoMo version 2011.

Thank you Stephen Perkins T +33 (0) E Postal address 2 rue Andre Pascal Paris Cedex 16