Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003 Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug th, 2009 Picture

1 DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US. n Serves customers in 5 states: North and South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. n 3.9 million retail electric customers n 500,000 retail gas customers n 47,000 square miles of Service Area n ~ 37,000 MW Generation in the US and 4,000 MW of Generation in Latin America

2 Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities

3 Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas: n Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization n Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources n Hourly pricing n Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation n Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories n Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections n Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the regulated and non-regulated generation n Support Emergency Management for Storm Response

4 Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization n Hourly forecasts of temperatures, dew points, wind speed and cloud cover for input into load forecast models n Real-time surface observations n Precipitation projections n Forecasts developed from NCEP models, MOS, and local forecast methods developed internally

5 Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources n Twice daily QPF forecasts that are input into our Hydro Management System (1-3 days) n Medium range QPF projections for lake/river management (4 to 7 days) n Real-time QPE for inflow estimates n Seasonal forecasts for longer range planning and resource availability

6 Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation n Daily Weather forecast Scenario development to capture uncertainty and project a range of possible loads out to 3 days n Forecasts of convection, timing and coverage for possible load shedding n Temperature/wind forecasts for transmission line ratings and lake/river temperature thermal restrictions

7 Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories n Monthly/seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are used for predicting coal inventories, gas storage numbers, and hydro availability n Seasonal forecasts of HDD and CDD are used to estimate revenue projections

8 Support trading and marketing of energy n Short and medium range forecasts are used for asset management (Day 1 through 5) n Daily market analysis based on region and national weather forecast. n Full suite of forecast projections for 35 cites in the 1 – 15 day range

9 Support Emergency Management for Storm Response

10 Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations

11 Future weather forecast needs? n Implementation of a proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) which would provide probabilistic forecast information. n Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short and long range models and make them available through NOAA Port. n Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3 by removing climatology as a predictor. n Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast

12 Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions: n System load management n System load modeling n Resource decisions related to on-going severe weather events n Inflow calculations for hydroelectric operations n Emergency response decisions related to non- routine releases

13 Future Mesonet Needs? n Increased spatial resolution of surface observations n Real-time SFC data available from a national network via NOAA Port every 15 minutes n Atmospheric boundary layer measurements using remote sensing systems for characterizing the PBL in real-time.

Recommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC Report n The stakeholders should commission an independent team of social and physical scientists to conduct end-user assessment for selected sectors. The assessment…………… ……added societal impact and value. n Themes – n Weather prediction and climate modeling n Support new applications in physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in expanding the user base n Integrated feedback mechanisms 14

Main driver in the energy sector n Technology? 15

Q&A