The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea Nguyen Thi Lan Anh

China’s behaviour in the SCS 29/5 & 31/5/2011: Chinese boats Fei Sheng No. 16 and Vessel No. B12549 attempted to approach the rear deck of the Viking II seismic survey ship and interfere with its operations. 1/6/2011: Chinese military vessels threatened to use their guns against a Vietnamese fishing boat operating in waters near the Spratly archipelago. 9/6/2011: Chinese fishing boat No equipped with a cable cutting device snared the cable of the Viking II operating in survey Block 136 ‐ 03 in the vicinity of Vanguard Bank (Tu Chinh). 6/7/2011: Armed Chinese naval troops beat the skipper of a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened the crew, and then forced the boat to leave contested waters near the Paracel Islands

China Introduced New Vertical MAP

From U shape to emerging J shape line

Of course, the Oil rig was not about Oil

Johnson South Reef Construction

 2010  2020  2050 Coastal defense Near sea defense Blue water navy China Major Naval Power Dreams

Sri Lanka Pakistan Bangladesh Myanmar “String of Pearls” Anti-Piracy Chinese “9 Exits” toward Outer Sea “Int’l Express News” Apr nd Island Line 1 st Island Line Diego Garcia Guam Hawaii ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑨ China securing “exits” to the Oceans A2/AD

From U-shape to J-shape U-Shape Territory Historical rights Resources J-shape Territory Historical rights Resources Security zone Dominance China’s DREAM

China’s Domestic Politics First generation of leader not “hand picked” by Dang Xiao Ping Opening lots of fronts Power base: PLA and the mass (nationalist) PLA more powerful, control foreign policy

Territory Sovereign rights Resources Maritime power Supremacy and Dominance Nationalism Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin?

Territorial Disputes Maritime Disputes Resources Maritime power Supremacy and Dominance Nationalism Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin? Self Restraint Status quo UNCLOS Clarify claims Delimit boundaries Joint Developments Incidents Management Transparency Monitoring Trust building Manage Domestic Politics The role of public opinion and rules of the road

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