Human Life Expectancy: What Can We Expect? Johnny Morrow

Purpose Of Research & Question What are the realities of human life expectancy? What are the realities of human life expectancy? Why does aging occur and can science extend the life expectancy? Why does aging occur and can science extend the life expectancy? How will new research concerning cures for diseases effect human life expectancy over the next 100 years? How will new research concerning cures for diseases effect human life expectancy over the next 100 years?

Hypothesis I predict that human life expectancy will not continue to grow over the next 100 years; the tendencies of death rates and oncoming illness will outmatch our technological and medical abilities and disable us from fighting newly formed diseases in amounts high enough to reach a higher life expectancy I predict that human life expectancy will not continue to grow over the next 100 years; the tendencies of death rates and oncoming illness will outmatch our technological and medical abilities and disable us from fighting newly formed diseases in amounts high enough to reach a higher life expectancy

Human Life Expectancy “It would take an 85 percent decline in all- cause mortality from the 1985 level to yield an eventual life expectancy of 100 years. Human life expectancy in the United States is unlikely to exceed 90 years in the 21st century.” ( Olshansky, et. al., 2005)

What Determines Human Life Expectancy Medical abilities/inabilities Medical abilities/inabilities Social abilities/inabilities of countries Social abilities/inabilities of countries Economic abilities/inabilities Economic abilities/inabilities Disease Prevalence Disease Prevalence Political abilities/inabilities Political abilities/inabilities Lack of resources Lack of resources Socioeconomic Reasons Socioeconomic Reasons

The Human Lifespan On average, since the 1900’s, the human lifespan has increased with the years, raising to 85 for males in some areas of the world On average, since the 1900’s, the human lifespan has increased with the years, raising to 85 for males in some areas of the world Some speculate that human life expectancy is a reflection of our innovations in medical technology and the lifestyle that we choose to live as humans in a dynamic world Some speculate that human life expectancy is a reflection of our innovations in medical technology and the lifestyle that we choose to live as humans in a dynamic world Human life expectancy is also interpreted as a reflection of external conditions and the ways that people handle their illness in relation to their environments. Human life expectancy is also interpreted as a reflection of external conditions and the ways that people handle their illness in relation to their environments. The current world average life expectancy is 66.8, compared to the much lower expectancy of 20 during the Neolithic period The current world average life expectancy is 66.8, compared to the much lower expectancy of 20 during the Neolithic period

Lifespan Cont. Historical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, human life expectancy will continue to grow into the 100’s by 2059 Historical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, human life expectancy will continue to grow into the 100’s by 2059 Many question our worldwide ability to fight disease, and suggest that such an inability would contribute to a decrease in life expectancy in the future Many question our worldwide ability to fight disease, and suggest that such an inability would contribute to a decrease in life expectancy in the future Although trends suggest that life expectancy should grow, the medical problems of today are less proportionally consistent to those of the past Although trends suggest that life expectancy should grow, the medical problems of today are less proportionally consistent to those of the past Disease is the most common cause contributing to the degradation of life expectancy Disease is the most common cause contributing to the degradation of life expectancy

Human Warranty S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce Carnes contend that living organisms are subject to a “biological warranty” period. James Fries, in 1980, made the stark prediction that humans were born with a maximum potential life expectancy The human body begins to substantially degrade around a consistent age of 80

Aging Some say that aging is a genetic mechanism inherent in all living things, and must occur as a natural process of life Some say that aging is a genetic mechanism inherent in all living things, and must occur as a natural process of life “(The) aging process may derive from changes occurring in parallel in different tissues due to intrinsic cellular mechanisms or changes in one’s tissue” (Magalhales, 2004) “(The) aging process may derive from changes occurring in parallel in different tissues due to intrinsic cellular mechanisms or changes in one’s tissue” (Magalhales, 2004) Others say that aging is a human tendency, and can be battled by advances in technology and medical science Others say that aging is a human tendency, and can be battled by advances in technology and medical science Damage Based Theory Damage Based Theory Programmed Theory Programmed Theory

Human Limits Disease is not limited to economics or politics, while innovations in medical science are Disease is not limited to economics or politics, while innovations in medical science are Disease rates are not being compensated for by cure rates in many countries, and effecting more populations of people Disease rates are not being compensated for by cure rates in many countries, and effecting more populations of people Other theories suggest that Other theories suggest that “Biological limits in the human body will prevent further dramatic extensions of lifespan” ( “Biological limits in the human body will prevent further dramatic extensions of lifespan” (Carnes, 2003) “Even if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in elderly people, the increase in life expectancy will be no more than 15 years” (WebMD, 2001) “Even if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in elderly people, the increase in life expectancy will be no more than 15 years” (WebMD, 2001)

Unlikely Cures For Disease Disease can manifest itself in many environments and in many different ways Disease can manifest itself in many environments and in many different ways Drugs have too many inconsistencies to supersede many medical conditions Drugs have too many inconsistencies to supersede many medical conditions Hereditary illness has more destructive potential than contagious disease, and dominates many medically vulnerable countries Hereditary illness has more destructive potential than contagious disease, and dominates many medically vulnerable countries Many oncoming sciences like stem-cell research and genetic modification are under great social pressure Many oncoming sciences like stem-cell research and genetic modification are under great social pressure New research is expensive New research is expensive

Unlikely Disease Control The potential for disease to be eradicated is compromised by social inabilities and economic inefficiency commonly occurring in many affected countries The potential for disease to be eradicated is compromised by social inabilities and economic inefficiency commonly occurring in many affected countries Disease, in its many forms, has a transforming potential that could outmatch our ability to innovate Disease, in its many forms, has a transforming potential that could outmatch our ability to innovate Disease spreads easier than many technological innovations and medical practices Disease spreads easier than many technological innovations and medical practices Cancer, and other common terminal illness, have deeply rooted genetic and environmental origins that are entirely resilient to many medical practices Cancer, and other common terminal illness, have deeply rooted genetic and environmental origins that are entirely resilient to many medical practices

Human Conditions Pandemics such as obesity and cancer lower life expectancy, and are not being medically compensated for “Olshansky and his colleagues have reported analyses which suggest that the sharp increase over the past 20 years in the numbers of obese Americans could shorten average U.S. life expectancy by as much as two to five years” (NIA, 2008) Many global health campaigns have not been demographically sufficient enough to impact life expectancy as a whole

Conclusion Human life expectancy will fluctuate, but not continue to grow until we can breach our social, economic, etc. problems with successful medical tactics Human life expectancy will fluctuate, but not continue to grow until we can breach our social, economic, etc. problems with successful medical tactics Disease is becoming more prevalent, and proportionally inhibiting large populations; causing major health concerns and longevity problems Disease is becoming more prevalent, and proportionally inhibiting large populations; causing major health concerns and longevity problems

References Carnes, B. A., Olshansky, J. S., Grahn, D. (2003). Biological evidence for limits to the duration of life. Biogerontology 4(1) Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine Magalhales, J. P. (2004). Why Do We Age? Retrieved on November 2 from: Magalhales, J. P. (2004). Why Do We Age? Retrieved on November 2 from: NIA. (2008). The Future of Human Life Expectancy. Retrieved on November 5, 2008 from: NIA. (2008). The Future of Human Life Expectancy. Retrieved on November 5, 2008 from: Olshansky, J. S., Passaro, D. J., Hershow, R. C., Layden, J., Carnes, B. A., Brady, J., Hayflick, J. R., Butler, R. N., Allison, D. B., and Ludwig, D. S. (2005). A potential decline in life expectancy in the united states in the 21st century. New England Journal of Medicine 352(11) WebMD. (2001). Human Life Expectancy Nearing Limits. Retrieved on November 2 from: limits