Transportation Dennis Silverman U. C. Irvine Physics and Astronomy

Bush’s Ethanol Fuel Proposal Bush proposes to drop gasoline usage by 20% in 10 years by increasing ethanol to 15% of automotive fuel, and increasing car mileage standards. Responses below. Public Citizen, called ethanol "neither a clean nor renewable fuel" and noted that dual-fuel vehicles that can use either ethanol or gasoline are allowed to meet lower fuel economy standards even if they are never filled with ethanol. Moreover, the group said, the widespread use of ethanol is "impractical" because of infrastructure difficulties.

Ethanol Getting 15% from ethanol is the entire corn crop, so we need another source such as sugar cane or ethanol from cellulose in stalks or switch grass. Corn is mainly used for animal feed and fructose in foods. Price of corn has doubled. Peru planning to grow sugar cane in new farmland and export ethanol to U.S. Sugar cane produces twice as much ethanol per acre as corn. Grows best in tropics. Price of sugar has increased.

Bush’s Mileage Standard Increase Public Citizen backed a recently passed House bill to revoke $14 billion in oil subsidies and dedicate the money to developing clean fuels and increasing energy efficiency. "But Bush has threatened a veto" of the bill, A second major plank of Mr. Bush’s energy proposal calls for increasing fuel-efficiency standards of cars and trucks by 4 percent a year — about one mile per gallon — starting in 2010 for cars and 2012 for trucks. He wants authority be taken from Congress and given to the Dept. of Transportation. Also, not use a fleet average but do it for each model, letting heavier cars get off easier. "Raising the fuel economy of the cars and trucks we drive by 10 miles per gallon over 10 years is the simplest step we can take," said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). "This would reduce 18 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles by And it would save nearly the amount of oil we currently import from the Persian Gulf." Sen. Dianne FeinsteinSen. Dianne Feinstein

Contributions to World Oil

Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Iran

CO2 Emissions in the US

CO2 Emissions in the US by End-Use Sector

US CO2 Emissions from Transportation

U.S. Carbon emission sources

DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OF FUEL EFFICIENCY OPTIONS

FEDERAL FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS PROGRAM Known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards Each model year (MY) manufacturers are required to: - Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new passenger cars - Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new passenger cars - Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new light duty trucks (includes minivans and SUVs). Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new light duty trucks (includes minivans and SUVs). Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY2007 Despite its flaws, as a result of CAFE, gasoline consumption is down roughly 2.8 million barrels/day from what it would be without CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions translate to a 7% reduction in CO2. In Europe, per capita gas usage is 286 liters/year compared to 1,624 liters/year in the U. S.

RECOMMENDED PLAN TO REDUCE CALIFORNIA’S PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE (as proposed by CA Energy Commission & Air Resources Board) I. Adopt a statewide goal of reducing demand for on- road gasoline and diesel to 15% below the 2003 demand level by 2020 and maintain that level for foreseeable future. (Or, 25% reduction to get to 1990 levels. AB32) II. Work in the national political arena to gain establishment of federal fuel economy standards that double the fuel efficiency of new cars, light trucks and SUVs. III. Establish a goal to increase use of non-petroleum fuels to 20% of on-road fuel consumption by 2020 and to 30% by 2030.

OVERALL SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF OPTIONS IN ON-ROAD DEMAND FORECAST

Vehicles as Part of the Solution? 8 cylinder vehicles are 25% of the market. –6 cylinder are 41%. –4 cylinder are only 30%. Hybrids are 1.5%, expected to grow to 4% in 6 years. Moving motorists down one step in engine size would clearly increase the fleet mileage, without inventing or buying new technology. Plug-in hybrids which can do 40 mile trips on electricity alone, but have to say where extra electricity will come from. –They cost $2,000 more than a regular hybrid. –But their usage is equivalent to paying $1.00 to $1.50 per gallon of gas. Cylinder-shutdown engines that change 8 to 4 cylinders when cruising, can save 10-20% on gas mileage. Modern Diesel engines are clean and can save 20% on CO2 production in getting 20-30% more mpg.

Comparative National Fuel Economies

Automotive conservation solutions People could : –Drive less aggressively on the gas pedal –Drive at the speed limit –Plan trips for less total driving –Use their higher gas mileage vehicle more People could use car pooling People could take public transportation These actions would actually have an immediate effect on lowering consumption and bringing down the price of gas.

Transportation Substitutions Telecommute: only 5% of employees do so. Buy over the internet, with serial delivery, rather than each person going to the mall. Also, goods don’t have to be delivered to shops first. Telephone or Video conferencing or selling, rather than air transport (already training teens by myspace) rather than snail-mail Internet websites saving journal, book and document production from trees, and trips to the library Coming electronic books and newspapers on a tablet More home entertainment saving trips to cinema

The Hydrogen Dream Hydrogen is a transmitter of energy, not a source: –Must use fossil fuel (creating CO 2 ) or high temperature reactors or solar or electrical power to create H 2 -- needs research –Need fuel cell technology improvement (current $3000/kw vs $30/kw for a gas engine). –Currently, $35,000 for an automotive fuel cell –Fuel cells combine 2H 2 with O 2 to make 2H 2 O. –Yet fuel cells are 60% efficient compared to 22% for gas and 45% for a diesel engine. –Catalysts in fuel cells are expensive and can be poisoned by impurities.

California Hydrogen Dreaming –Need to establish a distribution system on as large a scale as for gasoline –California is establishing a Hydrogen highway of 200 stations for about $100 million –Current cost of hydrogen is 4 times that of gasoline –Compressed hydrogen tank has a range of only 200 miles (50 for Arnold’s Hummer demo) –H 2 will probably be stored in a smaller volume molecule like NaBH 4 –Won’t be practical for 30 years –Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy" Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"

Possibility of New Unforseen Energy Solutions 100 years of technology discoveries is unpredictable. In the last century we created: –Autos, petroleum industry, highway system –Aircraft –Nuclear Age (E=mc²) –Electronics age: TV, computers, cell phones –Biological Age Starting: DNA, Genomics –Medical diagnosis and care –Crop improvements –Industrialization of farming –Satellites –Atom smashers, astrophysics, cosmology