Quantitative Demand Analysis Pertemuan 5 - 6 Matakuliah : J0434/EKONOMI MANAJERIAL Tahun : 2008 Quantitative Demand Analysis Pertemuan 5 - 6

Managerial Economics & Business Strategy Chapter 3 Quantitative Demand Analysis McGraw-Hill/Irwin Michael R. Baye, Managerial Economics and Business Strategy Bina Nusantara Copyright © 2008 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Overview I. The Elasticity Concept II. Demand Functions 3-4 Overview I. The Elasticity Concept Own Price Elasticity Elasticity and Total Revenue Cross-Price Elasticity Income Elasticity II. Demand Functions Linear Log-Linear III. Regression Analysis Bina Nusantara

The Elasticity Concept 3-5 The Elasticity Concept How responsive is variable “G” to a change in variable “S” If EG,S > 0, then S and G are directly related. If EG,S < 0, then S and G are inversely related. If EG,S = 0, then S and G are unrelated. Bina Nusantara

The Elasticity Concept Using Calculus 3-6 The Elasticity Concept Using Calculus An alternative way to measure the elasticity of a function G = f(S) is If EG,S > 0, then S and G are directly related. If EG,S < 0, then S and G are inversely related. If EG,S = 0, then S and G are unrelated. Bina Nusantara

Own Price Elasticity of Demand 3-7 Own Price Elasticity of Demand Negative according to the “law of demand.” Elastic: Inelastic: Unitary: Bina Nusantara

Perfectly Elastic & Inelastic Demand 3-8 Perfectly Elastic & Inelastic Demand Price Price D D Quantity Quantity Bina Nusantara

Own-Price Elasticity and Total Revenue 3-9 Own-Price Elasticity and Total Revenue Elastic Increase (a decrease) in price leads to a decrease (an increase) in total revenue. Inelastic Increase (a decrease) in price leads to an increase (a decrease) in total revenue. Unitary Total revenue is maximized at the point where demand is unitary elastic. Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-10 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 10 20 30 40 50 Q Q Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-11 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 80 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-12 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 80 60 1200 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-13 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 80 60 1200 40 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-14 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 80 60 1200 40 20 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-15 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 Elastic 80 60 1200 40 20 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Elastic Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-16 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 Elastic 80 60 1200 Inelastic 40 20 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Elastic Inelastic Bina Nusantara

Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand 3-17 Elasticity, Total Revenue and Linear Demand P TR 100 Unit elastic Elastic Unit elastic 80 60 1200 Inelastic 40 20 800 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Q 10 20 30 40 50 Elastic Inelastic Bina Nusantara

Demand, Marginal Revenue (MR) and Elasticity 3-18 Demand, Marginal Revenue (MR) and Elasticity For a linear inverse demand function, MR(Q) = a + 2bQ, where b < 0. When MR > 0, demand is elastic; MR = 0, demand is unit elastic; MR < 0, demand is inelastic. P 100 Elastic Unit elastic 80 60 Inelastic 40 20 Q 10 20 40 50 MR Bina Nusantara

Factors Affecting Own Price Elasticity 3-19 Available Substitutes The more substitutes available for the good, the more elastic the demand. Time Demand tends to be more inelastic in the short term than in the long term. Time allows consumers to seek out available substitutes. Expenditure Share Goods that comprise a small share of consumer’s budgets tend to be more inelastic than goods for which consumers spend a large portion of their incomes. Bina Nusantara

Cross Price Elasticity of Demand 3-20 Cross Price Elasticity of Demand If EQX,PY > 0, then X and Y are substitutes. If EQX,PY < 0, then X and Y are complements. Bina Nusantara

Predicting Revenue Changes from Two Products 3-21 Predicting Revenue Changes from Two Products Suppose that a firm sells to related goods. If the price of X changes, then total revenue will change by: Bina Nusantara

Income Elasticity If EQX,M > 0, then X is a normal good. 3-22 Income Elasticity If EQX,M > 0, then X is a normal good. If EQX,M < 0, then X is a inferior good. Bina Nusantara

Uses of Elasticities Pricing. Managing cash flows. 3-23 Uses of Elasticities Pricing. Managing cash flows. Impact of changes in competitors’ prices. Impact of economic booms and recessions. Impact of advertising campaigns. And lots more! Bina Nusantara

Example 1: Pricing and Cash Flows 3-24 Example 1: Pricing and Cash Flows According to an FTC Report by Michael Ward, AT&T’s own price elasticity of demand for long distance services is -8.64. AT&T needs to boost revenues in order to meet it’s marketing goals. To accomplish this goal, should AT&T raise or lower it’s price? Bina Nusantara

3-25 Answer: Lower price! Since demand is elastic, a reduction in price will increase quantity demanded by a greater percentage than the price decline, resulting in more revenues for AT&T. Bina Nusantara

Example 2: Quantifying the Change 3-26 Example 2: Quantifying the Change If AT&T lowered price by 3 percent, what would happen to the volume of long distance telephone calls routed through AT&T? Bina Nusantara

3-27 Answer Calls would increase by 25.92 percent! Bina Nusantara

Example 3: Impact of a change in a competitor’s price 3-28 According to an FTC Report by Michael Ward, AT&T’s cross price elasticity of demand for long distance services is 9.06. If competitors reduced their prices by 4 percent, what would happen to the demand for AT&T services? Bina Nusantara

3-29 Answer AT&T’s demand would fall by 36.24 percent! Bina Nusantara

Interpreting Demand Functions 3-30 Mathematical representations of demand curves. Example: Law of demand holds (coefficient of PX is negative). X and Y are substitutes (coefficient of PY is positive). X is an inferior good (coefficient of M is negative). Bina Nusantara

Linear Demand Functions and Elasticities 3-31 Linear Demand Functions and Elasticities General Linear Demand Function and Elasticities: Own Price Elasticity Cross Price Elasticity Income Elasticity Bina Nusantara

Example of Linear Demand 3-32 Example of Linear Demand Qd = 10 - 2P. Own-Price Elasticity: (-2)P/Q. If P=1, Q=8 (since 10 - 2 = 8). Own price elasticity at P=1, Q=8: (-2)(1)/8= - 0.25. Bina Nusantara

Log-Linear Demand General Log-Linear Demand Function: 3-33 Bina Nusantara

Example of Log-Linear Demand 3-34 Example of Log-Linear Demand ln(Qd) = 10 - 2 ln(P). Own Price Elasticity: -2. Bina Nusantara

Graphical Representation of Linear and Log-Linear Demand 3-35 P Q P D D Q Linear Log Linear Bina Nusantara

Regression Analysis One use is for estimating demand functions. 3-36 Regression Analysis One use is for estimating demand functions. Important terminology and concepts: Least Squares Regression model: Y = a + bX + e. Least Squares Regression line: Confidence Intervals. t-statistic. R-square or Coefficient of Determination. F-statistic. Bina Nusantara

3-37 An Example Use a spreadsheet to estimate the following log-linear demand function. Bina Nusantara

3-38 Summary Output Bina Nusantara

Interpreting the Regression Output 3-39 Interpreting the Regression Output The estimated log-linear demand function is: ln(Qx) = 7.58 - 0.84 ln(Px). Own price elasticity: -0.84 (inelastic). How good is our estimate? t-statistics of 5.29 and -2.80 indicate that the estimated coefficients are statistically different from zero. R-square of 0.17 indicates the ln(PX) variable explains only 17 percent of the variation in ln(Qx). F-statistic significant at the 1 percent level. Bina Nusantara

Conclusion 3-40 Elasticities are tools you can use to quantify the impact of changes in prices, income, and advertising on sales and revenues. Given market or survey data, regression analysis can be used to estimate: Demand functions. Elasticities. A host of other things, including cost functions. Managers can quantify the impact of changes in prices, income, advertising, etc. Bina Nusantara