Cognitive Biases and Environmental Decision Making.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Discourses and Framings of Climate Change: What Literatures Do We Need to Review? To realize synergies there is a need to indentify common objectives for.
Advertisements

Implementation Challenges Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok, Thailand.
Risk Communication is not Crisis Communication Tee L. Guidotti George Washington University Center for Risk Science and Public Health.
How are you going to manage?.  Informal  collection of vendors  loosely managed  minimal structure  Informal  collection of vendors  loosely managed.
Sociology and Climate Change Psychology is how individual things make a difference Sociology is how social things make a difference.
NIEHS, USFS, NOAA Symposium on Teaching Climate Change. NSTA Annual Meeting, Indianapolis, March 29, 2012 Effectively Educating the Public About Climate.
British Columbia’s Carbon Tax Exploring perspectives and seeking common ground Matt Horne | Ekaterina Rhodes.
Science & The Environment
The Conference on Social and Economic Aspects and Issues of Safe Development of Nuclear Power Engineering in APEC Kaohsiung, Chinese Taipei October.
Presented by Robert A. Chiusano, Robin M. Fries, Jessa M. Harger.
Oluwakemi Izomo. Hans-Peter Plag November 24, 2014 (Foresight: Summary) Decision Making: Introduction Final Assignment Decision Making Concepts Decision.
Environmental Impacts On Health Dorothy Cumbey, Ph.D., RN Jerry Dell Gimarc, MA with the special help of Lill Mood, MPH, RN, Community Liaison, EQC South.
Technical Models for Health Promotion
1 Decision making under large uncertainty * Marie-Laure Guillerminet * * ZMK, University of Hamburg Atlantis Meeting January 24 th, 2003.
Risk Communication RD October Risk Communication “An interactive process of exchange of information and opinion among individuals, groups,
Sustainable Lifestyles: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Models
CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE
Post Rio+20: What data and monitoring needs? Maria Martinho UNDESA/Division for Sustainable Development (DSD)
Cost-Benefit & Risk Analysis in Public Policy
Water, sustainability and climate for south Florida
Eftec Economics for the Environment Consultancy Using ecosystem services for cost benefit analysis of forestry decisions Roundtable on Cost / Benefit of.
Natural England State of the Natural Environment, Strategic Direction refresh, and Manifesto Dr Helen Phillips, Chief Executive, Natural England.
QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane.
Elke U. Weber, Columbia University Overcoming Barriers to Smart Grids & New Energy Services UT Austin Interdisciplinary Energy Conference, April 7-8, 2011.
Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios Emily McKenzie.
The Role of Affect in Climate Communication Jeffrey T. Kiehl Climate Change Research Section National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is sponsored.
SESSION 2 Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools.
BRINGING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES INTO DECISION-MAKING: A TOOLKIT FOR RAPID ASSESSMENT OF SITES Rob Munroe.
Partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions (Work in progress) Allison Perry.
The Perception of Risk By: Cleo Arnold, Stefanie Galich, & Allison Mitrovich Nickerson, R. S. (2003). Risk and the psychology of prevention, In Psychology.
Social Science Integration. Hurricane Forecasts as an Element of Generalized Risk Management System Public Emergency Planners Forecast Products Public.
Maximising benefits from MDB water resource management Jeff Connor, Onil Banerjee, Darla Hatton MacDonald, Sorada Tapsuwan, Mark Morrison*, Anthony Ryan.
Reid Harvey U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chief, Climate Economics Branch Climate Change Division 6 th Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum.
November 10, 2006AppliedVis 2006 AppliedVis 2006: Projecting a Brighter Future for Western North Carolina Communicating Climate Change Frank Niepold, NOAA.
Mary Lynn Manns Green Drinks March Large opposing goals The belief that this is not a pressing issue A “collective action” issue “Others” are.
Decision Analysis: Making Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty with Competing Objectives Shelie Miller, SNRE, February 17, 2015.
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 Valuing the Environment: Methods.
Basic principles on Risk Communication Cristiana Salvi Information and Outreach Unit Special Programme on Health and Environment WHO Regional Office for.
Perception, Cognition, and Emotion in Negotiation
Session 11 Risk Communication Messages and Materials Session 11 Slide Deck Slide 11-1.
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop Integration of V&A Analysis.
Unit 5 HS Adrienne Palmer, BSPH, MHA, FACHE.
Recommendations for Developing Effective Risk Management Policies for Contaminated Site Cleanup An Overview of Risk Management Concepts and How Risk Management.
The usability of climate data in climate- change planning & management (Informally, for Faculty) Richard B. Rood October 27, 2015.
 Attitudes are evaluative statements – either favorable or unfavorable about objects, people or events.  They reflect how we feel about something.
CHS 232 Health Sciences Iffat Elbarazi (Lecturer-KSU) Lect semester 2.
Mae A. Davenport Department of Forest Resources Center for Changing Landscapes University of Minnesota Watershed Planning Workshop Eau Claire, Wisconsin.
Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology Thomas E. Downing Stuart Franklin Sukaina Bharwani Cindy Warwick Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute.
 Advantages  Context-independent, hence applicable regardless of source, medium, location, affected interests (“risk science”)  Calculable, hence comparable.
Stakeholder engagement and placing InVEST in the context of other tools Emily McKenzie.
Project update Each step builds on the previous step Each step builds on the previous step Your problem statement uses your literature review to tell a.
Session 7 Crisis and Risk Communication Session 7 Slide Deck Slide 7-1.
Sociology and Climate Change Psychology is how individual factors influence and explain climate change’s causes, impacts, and solutions Sociology is how.
Portfolio Management Unit – III Session No. 19 Topic: Capital Market Expectations Unit – III Session No. 19 Topic: Capital Market Expectations.
Water Use Planning Siobhan Jackson BC Hydro Generation November 3, 2004 CEATI Water Management Workshop, Vancouver BC Translating Sustainability Theory.
Environmental Priority Setting in SEA Anders Ekbom, Environmental Economics Unit, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg
THE "COST – BENEFIT" ANALYSIS IN THE MODERN CITY ENVIRONMENT QUALITY MANAGEMENT Prof. Dr. Elena Lazareva, Prof. Dr. Tatiana Anopchenko South Federal University,
Understanding the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2010 Rev 2)
POL 310 AID Dreams Come True/pol310aid.com FOR MORE CLASSES VISIT
Risk and the Individual Decision Making Process Robyn S. Wilson, PhD Assistant Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science Environmental Social Sciences.
Behavioral Finance.
Climate change and the role of central banks
Sociology and Climate Change
Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
Chapter 8: Decision Making
Progress of the preparations for a White Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change Water Directors’ meeting Slovenia June 2008 Marieke van Nood, Unit.
Policy to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability
Investing in Source Water Protection
Chapter 8: Decision Making
Presentation transcript:

Cognitive Biases and Environmental Decision Making

Overarching Proposal Question How do cognitive biases influence decisions related to water allocation? Proposal Foci Short term choice preferences: economic vs. ecological impacts Long tem choice preferences Group D-M Structure influence individual biases

Human Cognition and Motivation Limited attention and processing capacity Limited emotional capacity Multiple goals and multiple modes of making decisions trial & error based system

These limitation can be mediated by controllable factors… Decision making (structure & process) Information Provision (type & forms)

Scientific community is extremely concerned about environmental issues, how about the public? Worry is a Function of Our Perception of Risk Dual Processing Systems ANALYTIC (Risk = Probability of Outcome X Consequence) ‘newer’ system AFFECTIVE (Risk as Feelings)

Perceived Risk correlated with dread risk and unknown risk Objective Risk ≠ Subjective Risk

Vampire Protection Kit, 1897 Low real hazard, high concern for protection

Bruegel the Elder’s “Landscape with the fall of Icarus” (1555) How Close is the Threat? Spatial & Temporal Dimensions

Related econspeak… Hyperbolic Discounting (inconsistent valuation over time) Loss aversion /Status quo biases (current baseline taken as optimal refernce point)

Finite Pool of Worry Ranking of Priorities for US Policymakers (2008 National Survey – “Very High” Category) 1.Economy 2.Deficit 3.Iraq & Afghanistan Wars 4.Health Care 5.Terrorism 6.Social Security 7.Education 8.Tax Cuts 9.Illegal Migration 10.Global Warming (21%) 11.Abortion Leiserowitz et al. 2008

Single Action Bias Weber 1997

Connecting Impacts & Competing Worries Source: South Florida Water Management District

Lay Leiserowitz and Broad 2008

If we’re not worried, why all the debate?

Framing & Ideology (not facts) Dominate Tim Calver photo

Support for Policies (surcharges for gas, clean energy, air travel) Carbon TAX vs. Carbon Offset DemocratIndependentRepublican Mean Support for Regulation Offset Tax

Carbon TAX vs. Carbon Offset DemocratIndependentRepublican Mean Support for Regulation Offset Tax

Conflicting Mental Models

Mental Models Differ Dramatically Hansen et al Climate Expert Farmer

Communicating Probabilistic Information Broad et al. 2007

Source: Leiserowitz, January 2003 (n = 549) (7%) (10%)(83%) “How much do you trust the following groups to tell you the truth about global warming?” Risk Communication and Trust in Information Provider

WSC Groups Behavioral Experiments, Surveys, Focus groups, Ethnography Impacts Info needed by behavioral group: -ecological impacts -environmental impacts -visualization tools & scenarios -uncertainty characterizations Informational Needs Preference Characterization Under different conditions – type of info/D-M structure Interesting S-B Stuff

What do you need and when? Stuff that interests us group versus individual decision dynamics? how people make decisions that play out over long timeframes? How to convey probabilistic information? How do people tradeoff outcomes that have different hedonic properties?

CC GW Courtesy of Paul Slovic Unknown Risk Well-known Risk Uncontrollable (high dread) Controllable (low dread) water

Temporal Tradeoffs Social Tradeoffs Risk and Uncertainty & Risk Perception Challenges

Humans are not good at Risk Assessment Temporal and Spatial Challenge: Connect to salient emotions – e.g., ocean warming  human health Complex connections and competing issues: Connect impacts – e.g., acidification  coral reefs  tourism  economy Framing & Ideology Multiple frames and information sources appropriate for different groups

“Checklist for Communication” Balancing Affective vs Analytic Temporal and Spatial Distance Mental models Finite pool of worry Single action bias Interpretive Communities (‘know thy audience’) Intermediary orgs & group processes –Role models –Imitation Decision Architecture –Opt in/out, anchor pts. –Social distance

Limited attention and processing capacity Need to attend selectively –Guided by expectations (values, beliefs) and goals Illinois farmers in early 1990s (Weber, 1997) Using uncertainty about a future hazard as an excuse to ignore it Use of simple emotion- and association-based processes over effortful analytic processes –Learning by getting hurt rather than by instruction Need to encode and evaluate locally –Thurber story: “Compared to what?”

Problems with Actions Guided (solely) by Worry Single action bias –Tendency to engage in a single risk reduction or risk management behavior when action is triggered by concern (rather than analysis) Argentine farmers concerned about climate change engage in either production, pricing, or policy path to protection, but not all three (Weber, 1999) Finite pool of worry –Increases in concern about one risk are accompanied by decreases in another (Weber, 2006)

Lay Person Ranking of Hazards