Chemistry for Consumers Risk Analysis

Paper cup or plastic cup…which is better for the environment? A. Paper B. Plastic

From Dow…

8 Risk Analysis and Management (Morgan, Sci Am July 1993) “When people are asked to order well-known hazards in terms of the number of deaths and injuries they cause every year, on average they do it pretty well. If, however, they asked to rank those hazards in terms of risk, they produce quite a different order.”

9 People rank risks on: 1.How well the process in question is understood 2.How equitably the danger is distributed 3.How well the individuals can control their exposure (voluntary?)

10 These factors can be grouped for risk analysis into categories: 1.Degree of dreadfulness (e.g., affects innocent bystanders?) 2.How well is the risk understood 3.Number of people exposed

Categories can be used to define a “risk space” which pictorially shows how people will react to a particular hazard. Risks that carry a high level of “dread” provoke more calls for government intervention than some more workaday risks that actually cause more deaths or injuries.

13 Total Number of Deaths: 215,669 Cardiovascular (ICD ); Respiratory (ICD ); Diabetes (ICD-9 250); Cancer (ICD ); Infectious Diseases (ICD ); Accidents/Poisonings/Violence (ICD-9 E800-E999) Source: Statistics Canada, 1997 All Cardiovascula r Disease (79,457) 36% Leading Causes of Death - Canada, 1997

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Risks and Benefits (Hill & Kolb) Desirability Quotient = = DQ Risks Benefits Benefits – promote well-being or have a positive effect Risks – hazards that lead to loss or injury

Individual Risk (probability x risk) Societal Risk (probability x risk x population)

Possible Cases… Very Large DQ (large benefit/small risk) Very Small DQ (small benefit/large risk) ????? DQ (small/small or large/large)

18 Examples Consumption of milk Thalidomide Liquidification of coal Aspartame Others?

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Something practical…