1 Northeast Corridor Cost Benefit Assessment Status Mark Kipperman SAIC July 14, 2003

2 Overview Economic Information for Analysis Operational Capabilities –Higher Volume Operations –Lower Landing Minimums –Single-Pilot Performance –En Route Procedures Summary

3 Economic Information for Analysis Inflation and Discount Rates –Adjust to constant (fixed-year) dollars based on GDP price deflator –OMB guidance for time value of money (normally 7% annually) Aircraft Values –Fixed/variable operating costs, replacement and restoration costs –General costs by aircraft category from FAA, specific costs from VA Tech & other models, Team Vision, internet sites, etc. Passenger Values –Passenger value of time (PVT) significant in SATS analysis –Likely SATS users have higher average PVT than most air travelers Life and Injuries Values –Used in calculating safety benefits –Avoided fatality valued at $2.7 million

4 SATS Operational Capabilities Higher Volume Operations Lower Landing Minimums Single-Pilot Performance En Route Procedures

5 Higher Volume Operations Who Benefits? –Those already using (or projected to use) the airport: reduced flight time –Flights added because of HVO: reduced total travel time, ground transport costs –Flights at large airports: reduced congestion and delay HVO Cost-Benefit Approach –Compare total O/D time, cost between large airports and SATS HVO airports –Estimate PVT for potential passengers –Estimate number of passengers/flights to use HVO airports; quantify savings –Estimate HVO-induced traffic/delay reduction at large airports Needed HVO Data –“Real” origin-destination information for passengers at large airports –HVO airports with year of implementation –Cost/ travel time to large & HVO airports –PVT distribution of potential passengers –Forecast airport traffic and delays (FAA) –Untapped market; non-fliers who might fly because of HVO –Cost of equipment needed for HVO

6 Lower Landing Minimums Who benefits? –Aircraft & passengers using/projected to use the airport: avoided disruptions –Flights added due to LLM: reduced total travel time, ground transportation costs –Flights at large airports where traffic is reduced because of LLM at nearby airports: reduced congestion and delay LLM Cost-Benefit Approach –Compare total O/D time and cost –Estimate distribution of PVT & number benefiting; quantify savings –Estimate reduction of traffic and delays at large airports –Estimate number of avoided disruptions due to LLM –Estimate distribution/benefits of avoided disruptions Needed LLM Data –Same data for LLM airports as for HVO airports –Comparison of landing minimums with and without LLM –Airport/area weather data (% time below various ceiling/visibility combinations)

7 Single-Pilot Performance (SPP), En Route Procedures (ER) Benefits –Time and fuel savings –Reduced risk/severity of accidents (SPP) –ER similar to Free Flight for smaller aircraft Approach –Compare accident and navigation error rates between single- pilot and dual-pilot aircraft –Evaluate existing studies on Free Flight –Analyze similarities and differences for SATS ER Needed Data –Expected improvements; type, quantity, and timing –Effects of improvements on safety & efficiency –Costs of implementation

8 SATS (AT) Preferred Means of Travel for Distances Miles Benefits to new SATS passengers compared to POV (auto) and Air Carrier (changing assumptions changes results)

9 Benefits to SATS Passengers $730 Million (Preliminary Results) Benefits to New SATS Passengers: $705M over 15 years –Average Benefit $70 per passenger –1600+ passengers/day –Estimate for 2008:$42M Benefits to Existing Air Taxi Passengers:$25M Total Benefits to SATS Passengers: $730M

10 SATS Reduces Congestion and Delay at Large Airports Benefits to Non-SATS Passengers at Congested Airports: $256M

11 Summary Total SATS Benefits Almost $1 Billion (preliminary results) Cost benefit analysis structure completed Available data –Traffic (updated) and delays at major airports –Forecast en route & terminal traffic (updated) –Aviation weather Needed data –Refined user-preference and PVT data –“Real” O/D data –Cost of implementation