Introduction to Harmony funds James Klempster, CFA October 2012
1. Introduction to Harmony funds 2 1. Introduction to Harmony funds 2. Momentum Global Investment Management 3. Fund focus 4. Market update
1. Introduction to Harmony funds
Introduction Risk profiled core solutions: Balanced and Growth Multi-asset, multi-manager, multi-currency Diversified between local and global investments, asset class, currency, manager and style Dynamic tactical asset allocation Available in five currency / regional bases: USD, GBP, EUR, AUD and Asian The Harmony range does not invest in derivatives, structured products or CDOs Managed by Momentum Global Investment Management in London
The Harmony fund range Harmony Asian Balanced Harmony Asian Growth Harmony US Dollar Balanced Harmony US Dollar Growth Harmony Euro Balanced Harmony AUD Growth Harmony Sterling Balanced Harmony Sterling Growth
Harmony funds structure Momentum Global Funds SICAV (Luxembourg) Harmony fund range Asian Balanced Fund Asian Growth Fund Euro Balanced Fund GBP Balanced Fund GBP Growth Fund USD Balanced Fund USD Growth Fund AUD Growth Fund Promoter Momentum Global Investment Management Investment manager & global distributor Momentum Global Investment Management Management company RBS Luxembourg Depositary & administrator JP Morgan Luxembourg Auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers Sub-distributor Armytage Asset Management Regulator CSSF Luxembourg
Investment manager feedback House view Weekly review Monthly factsheets Monthly viewpoint Detailed quarterly reports Harmony AUD Growth Website: www.harmonyportfolios.com
2. Momentum Global Investment Management
Who we are and why we are different Business & heritage Boutique focus and mindset Strong corporate backing: top 40 JSE listed company Group AuM: USD41 billion, London AuM: USD4.3 billion* Investment process Highly experienced and stable team Disciplined valuation driven investment process Capital preservation mindset Investment manager partnerships Genuinely bespoke solutions – highly attuned to client needs True dynamic asset allocation Use of external specialists Diversification across a wide range of asset classes Deal exclusively with institutions and intermediaries January 2012. * Includes post consolidation assets.
Investment philosophy – core beliefs Markets are inefficient Inefficiencies create valuation extremes and offer opportunities Dynamic asset allocation will add value over time Increasing the investable universe will increase the opportunity set Effective use of broad range of asset classes generates better risk:return profile Blending uncorrelated assets enables true diversification Valuation is paramount Reversion to the mean works in the long run Wait for the ‘fat pitch’ No single manager / investment house is good at everything Dynamic manager selection is essential Focus on employing specialists to maximise opportunities
Risk management Asset class selection True risk is the possibility of permanent loss of capital Best defence is buying a diverse portfolio of undervalued a sets Valuation is key: Scenario testing used to stress test our valuations Manager selection Extensive operational due diligence process Onsite visits by our DD team as necessary Transparency required to guard against style drift Position sizing Target benchmark volatility Risk analysed at individual contribution and total portfolio level Position sizes adjusted to keep within target and ensure a prudent level of diversification Liquidity stress testing
Investment process
Investment process: roles and responsibilities Asset Allocation Glyn Owen, Investment Director James Klempster, Multi-Asset PM Peter van der Ross, Head of Strategy Lynn van Coller, Head of Core Strategies Mike Allen, Chief Investment Officer Alex Harvey, Head of Fixed Income Andries Kotzee, Multi-Asset PM Global asset allocation committee Capital markets forecast group Multi-asset committee Portfolio implementation Harmony fund range Manager Research Mike Allen, Chief Investment Officer John Caulfield, Head of Alternative Strategies Andrew Smith, Head of Equities Andries Kotzee, Multi-Asset PM Andrew Hardy, Senior Analyst Jernej Bukovec, Senior Analyst Alex Harvey, Head of Fixed Income Operations Robert Rhodes, Chief Operating Officer Risk Management Rishi Patel, Head of Risk and Due Diligence 13 13
Asset class research Where active management works Percentage of fund managers who underperform various performance hurdles Index +1% +2% +4% 84 Efficient Domestic Bonds* 66 77 Global Bonds 67 77 UK Equities 65 71 75 US Equities Semi-efficient 69 75 81 Global Equities European Equities 53 66 75 59 67 73 EM Equity 48 57 65 Japanese Equity 75 Inefficient 49 54 59 Small Cap* 67 January 2012. (Illustrative purposes only)
Manager research process Buy discipline Sell discipline Appoint Manager Sell Manager What we’re looking for: Sound philosophy Disciplined process Proven team/implementation Robust capacity management Alignment of interests Business stability Sell indicators Upgrade decision Key individual/ team leaves Poor capacity management Inconsistent behaviour Negative corporate change Operational issues Manager Re-evaluation Manager Evaluation Continuous monitoring Idea Generation Re-evaluate Universe
Using the best talent from around the world Polar Morgan Stanley iShares Old Mutual Henderson M&G RWC Schroders Threadneedle Jupiter London Chicago: Driehaus Timpani Paris: Comgest Tokyo: Tiburon Connecticut: Lapides AXA IM BlackRock San Francisco: Artisan Wilmington: Marvin & Palmer New York: American Century Pzena Muzinich Cohen & Steers Arizona: ING Austin Yacktman Singapore: Firth Pictet Sydney: Aberdeen UBS
3. Fund focus
Harmony Balanced fund strategic allocation October 2012
Harmony Growth fund strategic allocation October 2012
Harmony US Dollar Balanced asset allocation October 2012.
Harmony US Dollar Balanced currency allocation October 2012.
Harmony US Dollar Balanced performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, Momentum Global Investment Management, October 2012.. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005. †Harmony fund average percentage rank over discrete years shown.
Harmony US Dollar Balanced manager performance Source: Returns to 28/09/2012, Bloomberg October 2012
Harmony US Dollar Growth asset allocation October 2012.
Harmony US Dollar Growth currency allocation October 2012.
Harmony US Dollar Growth performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, Momentum Global Investment Management, October 2012.. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005. †Harmony fund average percentage rank over discrete years shown.
Harmony US Dollar Growth manager performance Source: Returns to 28/09/2012, Bloomberg October 2012
Harmony Asian Growth asset allocation October 2012.
Harmony Asian Growth currency allocation October 2012.
Harmony Asian Growth performance Source: Lipper Hindsight, Momentum Global Investment Management, October 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. *30/11/2006 to 29/12/2006. †Harmony fund average percentage rank over discrete years shown.
Harmony Asian Growth manager performance Source: Returns to 28/09/2012, Bloomberg October 2012
Harmony three year performance vs. peers Source: Lipper Hindsight, October 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns
4. Market update
This century has been bad for equity investing…… +18.5% Source: Returns to 05/10/2012. Bloomberg, October 2012
……but not for government bonds Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Asset class returns YTD 2012, Local currency terms Source: Bloomberg, Returns to 28/09/2012, October 2012
MSCI World since January 2008 Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
10 year government bond yield since January 2008 Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Map of the markets YTD Source: Bloomberg, Returns from 30/12/2011-05/10/2012, October 2012
Asset class returns 2012 YTD Source: Lipper, Returns to 05/10/2012, October 2012
Asset class returns 2012 YTD Source: Lipper, Returns to 05/10/2012, October 2012
Asset class returns 2012 YTD Source: Lipper, Returns to 05/10/2012, October 2012
10 year government bond spreads vs. Germany Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
German vs. Spanish 10 yr government bond yields January 2000 to date Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Performance of Chinese stock market vs. S&P500 Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Performance of Gold, Copper and Oil Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Currencies vs. USD Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Performance of currencies vs. USD YTD 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Returns to 05/10/2012, October 2012
2. Market outlook
Critical issues Sustainability of growth in the US Structural slowdown in China – or hard landing? European imbalances Central bank pump pricing vs. global deleveraging
Clear slowdown in global growth Source: JPMorgan, October 2012
Economy has slowed: US leading economic indicators Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
US consumer confidence Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
US economic momentum is reasonable – but unemployment remains high US labour market Source: Figures to 28/09/2012, Bloomberg, October 2012
US construction: the only way is up? Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
US housing starts over the last 12 months Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Fiscal cliff: will need to be tackled after November US budget deficits Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
US fiscal deficit as % of GDP 1791 -2011 Source : Deutsche bank, GFD. October 2012.
Budget deficits larger in the US than in peripheral Europe Budget deficit as a % of GDP % Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain: GDP- weighted fiscal balance US Source: Deutsche bank. October 2012.
China is landing GDP and industrial production Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Major macro indicators continue to disappoint Chinese PMI: new orders Chinese money supply (% yoy) Level Source: Bloomberg, October 2012.
Export sector flatlining Chinese global exports (Real $) Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Imports slowing Chinese global imports (Real $) Imports % YOY Source: SocGen October 2012
China’s slowing growth: structural or cyclical? China Real GDP y/y % change % Source: Factset. October 2012.
The European crisis is not simply debt 1.0% -8.5% -1.7% -8.0% Current account balance 5.2% -0.8% Budget deficit to GDP -1.9% -4.6% -7.4% -7.2% -4.2% -4.5% -2.1% -6.0% -2.2% -2.4% Source: IMF, 2012 estimates.
Unit labour costs since the launch of the euro Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Currencies vs. the Deutschemark Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
German Labour reform accelerated growth- can Italy? Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
The European stress / intervention cycle Don’t underestimate the political will to preserve the Eurozone Inflate, stagnate or default Austerity / growth European bail out of banks Issue of Eurobonds ECB – LTRO / OMT / rate cut Fiscal union
Central government debt burden 1900 to 2011 - advanced and emerging economies % Source: Reinhart (2010), Reinhart and Rogoff (2009 and 2011), sources cited therein and the authors
Total debt to GDP for developed economies 1990 - 2012 Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver. October 2012.
Debt composition varies widely Source: Bloomberg, October 2012.
Short term interest rates over past 10 years US, UK, Japan and Europe % Source: MGIM, Bloomberg. October 2012
The world is not normal: UK base rate 1694 to today Source: Deutsche Bank, GFD. October 2012.
The world is not normal: Swiss government bond yields Source: Bloomberg, MGIM. October 2012.
The world is not normal: 10 year government bond yields Source: Bloomberg, MGIM. October2012.
The world is not normal: US 10 year yield since 1790 Source: Deutsche Bank, GFD, Bloomberg Finance LLp. October 2012.
Quantitative easing: Bank of England balance sheet as a % of GDP Source: Deutsche bank. October 2012.,
The UK recovery is weaker than in the great depression % Source: Deutsche Bank. September 2012.
Tail risk of extreme events are not insignificant US fiscal cliff Chinese ‘recession’ Eurozone disintegration Journey into the unknown – monetary easing
Equity market valuations *current year estimate Source: Bloomberg, Statistics to 05/010/2012. October 2012
MSCI World P/E ratio since 1995 Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
MSCI World price to book since 1995 Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Tail wind of EM re-valuation now behind us MSCI World PB vs. MSCI GEM PB Source: Bloomberg, October 2012
Investment conclusion ‘New normal’ is now the consensus Deleveraging and rebalancing set to continue for years US – growth risk in 2013 China – structural slowdown underway Europe – stress / intervention cycle to continue Policy risks are high Further monetary loosening is certain Crisis presents an extraordinary valuation opportunity
Implications for portfolio construction Subdued growth low return expectations Continued deleveraging and tight credit financial strength is critical High tail risks high volatility Cyclical move down in commodities has further to run Deflation protection in safe haven bonds Income generating assets important safe dividend equities corporate bonds emerging market bonds Focus on: Diversification by asset class Quality defensive equities Inflation not today’s problem – but might be the end game Exploit tactical opportunities
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