3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy John S. Daniel National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Division Boulder, Colorado USA Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy Montreal Protocol Success A Lesson for Climate Policy Implications for HFC Policy John S. Daniel National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Division Boulder, Colorado USA Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) No “trading” among groups

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) No “trading” among groups Highly successful Adapted from Velders et al, PNAS, 2007 A Measure Of Success A Measure Of Success No Protocol

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.) No “trading” among groups Highly successful CFCs/HCFCs Illustration Adapted from Velders et al, PNAS, 2007 A Measure Of Success A Measure Of Success No Protocol

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany CFC/HCFC Contribution to O 3 Depletion Projections Obs - based

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Impact of a Trade to HCFCs

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Single-Basket Range of O 3 Depletion

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach PFCs CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs SF 6

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach PFCs CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs SF Radiative Forcing

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach PFCs CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs SF Radiative Forcing

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany CO 2 /CH 4 Impact on Climate (RCP4.5)

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Impact of a Trade to All CH 4 Emissions All CH 4

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Impact of a Trade to All CO 2 Emissions All CO 2

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Ambiguity of Single Basket

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Implications for HFCs Velders et al, PNAS, 2009

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Implications for HFCs Velders et al, PNAS, Radiative Forcing Change from 2010 to 2050 (RCP8.5)

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Implications for HFCs Velders, PNAS, 2009 This can all be avoided

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Implications for HFCs Velders, PNAS, 2009 Potential Long-term penalty This can all be avoided

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany N 2 O and Ozone Depletion Ravishankara et al., 2009

3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany Conclusions The Montreal Protocol successfully implemented a multi-basket approach to deal with the international problem of stratospheric ozone depletion. A single-basket approach, as used in the Kyoto Protocol, can lead to some level of ambiguity in the climate impact of regulation. If regulation on some group of gases (e.g., HFCs) has the inadvertent affect of delaying CO 2 regulation, this will have multi-century climate implications.