1 Thailand as an Example Can a country sharply reduce its population growth in only 15 years? –In 1971, Thailand adopted a policy to reduce population growth.

2 Thailand (cont) Several reasons account for this impressive feat: 1.the creativity of the government-supported family planning program 2.the high literacy rate among women (90%) 3.an increasing economic role for women and advances in women's rights 4.better health care for mothers and children 5.the openness of the Thai people to new ideas 6.the willingness of the government to encourage and financially support family planning and to work with the private nonprofit Population and Community Development Association (PCDA)( 7.support of family planning by the country's religious leaders (95% of Thais are Buddhist)

3 How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates? Populations grow or decline through the interplay of three factors: births deaths migration

4 Demographic Birth & Death Rates Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - the number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year. Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

5 Crude Birth Rates (CBR) annual number of live births per 1000 population. It is "crude" because it relates births to total population without regard to the age or sex composition of that population.

6 Crude Birth Rate (cont) The crude birth rate of a country is strongly influenced by; age structure of population sex structure of population customs & family size expectations adopted population policies

7 National crude birth rates vary widely today

8 Lowering Crude Birth Rates China's Way In 1965 Chairman Mao stated an ever larger population was "a good thing," when China's CBR was 37 per 1000 and its population was 540 million. In 1976 population reached 852 million although the CBR declined to 25.

9 China's Way (cont) "One couple, one child" became the slogan in 1979 backed by both incentives and penalties. late marriages were encouraged

10 China's Way (cont) Single child families received: free contraceptives cash awards abortions sterilization

11 China's Way (cont) Penalties included: steep fines for second births sterilization of husband or wife of families with more than one child Penalties resulted in: Infanticide

12 China's Way (cont) Prosperous Urbanites Successful Population Controls Population Projections

13 China's Way (cont) Falling fertility rates will result in: declining proportion of working-age people inadequate number of people to care for rapidly growing number of senior citizens.

14 Factors Affecting Birth Rates Religious Roman Catholics and Muslims Political Italy European governments

15 Crude Death Rate (CDR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

16 Crude Birth/Death Rates Developed vs. Developing World

17 Average Crude/Death Rates

18 World Birth/Death Rate Trend Birth rates and death rates are coming down worldwide, but death rates have fallen more sharply.

19 World Population Change Rate expressed as a percentage: Annual rate of Birth rate - Death rate natural population = change (%) 10

20 World Population Change (cont) Exponential growth World annual population growth rate Actual Population change

21 Annual World Population Growth 2002

22 World Population Growth Rates

23 Population Number by Country China (1.33 billion in 2010) and India (1.2 billion in 2011) make up 37% of the world's population. US (312 million as of 12/7/2011) has the world's third largest population but only 4.6% of the world's people.

24 Current & Projected Population 2004/2025

25 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) More refined that the crude birth rate. Shows the rate of reproduction among fertile females 15 – 49 years old. CBR the denominator includes the entire population including males and females not of reproductive age.

26 Decline in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs)

27 World TFRs 2002

28 Population Projections UN population projections to 2050 vary depending on the world's projected average TFR. Next slide: UN population projections to 2050

29 UN Population Projections to 2050

30 Case Study: U.S. Fertility Rate Changes

31 U.S. Birth Rates

32 U.S. Population Growth, and Projected to 2100.

33 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Importance of children as a part of the labor force. Urbanization. Cost of raising and educating children. Educational and employment opportunities for women. Infant mortality rate. Average age at marriage Availability of private and public pension systems. Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms. Availability of legal abortions. Availability of reliable birth control methods.

34 Demographic Transition As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps: Pre-Industrial Stage Transitional Stage Industrial Stage Post-Industrial Stage

35 What Factors Affect Death Rates?

36 Indicators of Overall Health Two useful indicators of overall health of people in a country or region are: life expectancy - the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live infant mortality rate - the number of babies out of 1000 born who die before their first birthday

Hans Rosling Swedish medical doctor, academic, statistician and public speaker YSojo&feature=player_embedded 37

38 Demographic Transition As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps: Pre-Industrial Stage Transitional Stage Industrial Stage Post-Industrial Stage

39 Age Structure Diagrams

40 Rapid Growth

41 Slow Growth

42 Zero Growth

43 Negative Growth

44 How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth? Any country with many people below 15 years old (represented by a wide based population structure diagram) has a powerful built-in momentum to increase its population size unless death rates rise sharply.

45 Population Structure of the Developed Countries

46 Population Structure of the Developing Countries

47 Population Data for The US, Brazil & Nigeria

48 How Can Age Structure Diagrams Be Used To Make Population and Economic Projections?

49 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.

50 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

51 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

52 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

53 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

54 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

55 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

56 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

57 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

58 Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

59 Workers Supporting Beneficiaries Social Security –

60 What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births? The projected increase of the human population from 6.2 to 9.3 billion or more between 2002 and 2050 raises an important question: Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3.1 billion more people without causing widespread environmental damage?

61 Question We Should Be Asking…. What is the optimum sustainable population of the earth based on the planet's cultural carrying capacity?

62 Slowing Population Growth Proponents of slowing population growth contend that if we do not sharply lower birth rates, we are deciding by default to: raise death rates for humans (already occurring in parts of Africa) greatly increase environmental harm.

63 US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London In 1992, for example, the US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London issued the following joint statement: "If current predictions of population growth and patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world."

64 How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth Rates? Population geographers have examined the birth and death rates of western European countries that industrialized during the 19th century. They developed a hypothesis of population change known as the demographic transition.