Running on one Engine Kenya’s uneven economic performance with a special focus on the port of Mombasa World Bank Economic Team Presentation by Dr. Wolfgang Fengler Press Briefing Norfolk Hotel Nairobi, June 3, 2010

Main messages Kenya is recovering - slowly but surely. For 2010, the World Bank is revising its growth forecast upwards to 4.0 percent. For 2011, we project 4.9 percent, if no shocks occur. However, Kenya is running on one engine. Over the last decade growth has been imbalanced, predominantly driven by domestic consumption fuelled by imports. Exports have been weak and non-tradable sectors, such as services and construction have performed strongly. The Infrastructure deficit constrains exports and the port of Mombasa is still under-performing. Despite some improvements, port reforms have not kept up with the momentum in other African countries. It still takes 20 days to bring a container from Mombasa to Nairobi. This is longer than to ship the same container from Singapore to Mombasa.

Recent Economic Developments and Outlook for 2010

Kenya’s economy is recovering – slowly but surely…

…but lags behind growth in East Africa

Services have been the drivers of growth in 2009, agriculture contracted again

… and Kenya’s ICT revolution continues: 20 mn phone connections; 4 mn internet connections

Macroeconomic management has been strong: Inflation and interest rates declined sharply since 2008

Fiscal deficits have been low For FY 2009/2010, the deficit only reached 4.9% by April 2010…

… and the fiscal stimulus will not be fully implemented : 57% disbursement after nine months

Kenya Running on one Engine

Kenya’s share in world trade has been declining sharply since 1970

The pattern of consumption-led growth and weak exports has been building up for a decade

Consumption has led Kenya out of the crisis in net exports remain negative

The current account deficit remains large and is financed by a strong capital account…

... which is driven by short term flows

Over the last decade, non-tradable sectors have performed best Ave. Percent

Manufacturing has been overtaken by transport & communication and wholesale & retail trade

The Port of Mombasa

Singapore ships 50 times more goods than Mombasa

94 percent of Mombasa goods go to Kenya and Uganda

At the port, dwell time has been reduced, however,...

.. it still takes 20 days to bring a container from Mombasa to Nairobi 3.7 days 18.3 days

… and Kenya is lagging behind in the implementation of reforms

Key reform issues Easy wins – Improve management. The Mombasa port can be substantially upgraded, even with the current infrastructure, including through (i) full and effective 24hr port operations; (ii) the implementation of a state of the art IT system (Port Community-Based System); (iii) the concessioning of berths through a competitive and transparent process; (iv) the establishment of a landlord port. Infrastructure upgrading – Focus on transport connections. Transfer of goods through Mombasa and other parts of Kenya has become a major hindrance to the economy. Key improvements include the (i) Mombasa by-pass along with the link road from the port; (ii) upgrading of rail capacity; (iii) building of new container terminal by 2015

Thank You For more information on this report and the World Bank’s Economic program in Kenya, please contact Wolfgang Fengler Jane Kiringai or Andrew Roberts