Outlook for the U.S. Dairy Sector in 2011 Roger Hoskin Dan Marti Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented at the 2009 USDA Outlook.

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for the U.S. Dairy Sector in 2011 Roger Hoskin Dan Marti Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented at the 2009 USDA Outlook Forum Washington D.C. February 25, 2011

The dairy sector in 2010 and Milk and product prices recover Farm income recovers sharply Moderate feed prices Production recovers 2011 Soaring feed prices Higher (still) milk and product prices Farm income declines from 2010 Production continues to expand

Milk-Feed Price Ratio Source: USDA./WAOB

Net Cash Farm Income, per Farm

Chinese Imports of WMP Take Off Source: USDA/FAS

Why were U.S. exports so strong in 2010? U.S. prices were below world prices Increasing U.S. production Severe drought in Oceania = low world supplies Strong global demand because of economic growth

U.S. exports projected to decline in 2011 *Forecast Source: USDA/WAOB

Butter, cheese and NDM prices show volatility over last five years *Forecast Source: USDA/NASS/WAOB

Source: USDA/NASS

Milk prices are forecast to remain high in 2011 *Midpoint of forecasted range Source:USDA/WAOB

2010 recovery Domestic production was high in 2010, at billion pounds saw milk prices recover sharply from Feed prices remained relatively moderate. Net average cash farm income soared to highest level since 1996.

2011 Outlook Milk prices continue to strengthen. Domestic demand expected to rise for cheese and other value added products. The export market still strong but U.S. faces stiffer competition Feed prices are exceptionally high and could rise further but milk production remains a profitable enterprise for many dairy farms.

Additional Information on the Outlook for 2009 is Available on the Following Websites: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook – Dairy: World Markets and Trade –