Security in a nuclear-weapon-free world Presentation by Alyn Ware 8 April 2015, Prague

What do we mean by a ‘nuclear- weapon-free world’ Multi-lateral disarmament not unilateral disarmament; Security is enhanced not diminished; Zero nuclear weapons – or virtual zero? Prohibition on nuclear weapons backed up by law, verification and enforcement; Provisions are non-discriminatory; Capacity to deal with break-out.

Eliminating the roles of nuclear weapons to facilitate a nuclear-weapon-free world The necessity to reduce and eliminate the role of nuclear weapons, in order to facilitate nuclear disarmament, has been highlighted in various forums including: UN General Assembly (resolutions sponsored by the New Agenda Coalition); US nuclear posture review post-Prague Speech (2009); Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (2010) Inter Parliamentary Union resolution (2014 )

Current roles for nuclear weapons Deter a nuclear attack Deter the development of weapons of mass destruction programs Prevent war between major powers Maintain a ‘balance of power’ – strategic stability Reassure allies Prevent aggression from a power with superior conventional forces Manage regional conflicts Deter terrorist attacks? Deter cyber attacks? Eliminating Nuclear Threats: ICNND Report 2009

Risks of war v risks from nuclear weapons Risk = probability x consequences Probability of war > probability of nuclear weapons use Consequences of war < consequences of nuclear weapons use Risk of war versus risks of nuclear weapons use?

Deter a nuclear attack Approaches: – Eliminate nuclear weapons – Establish procedures to deal with break-out or hidden nuclear arsenals Key proposals to eliminate nuclear weapons – Global Zero plan – Nuclear Weapons Convention or package of agreements Elements of the proposals – Prohibition of the use (and possession) of nuclear weapons – Phased program for stockpile reduction – Verification and enforcement measures – Confidence building at low numbers before going to zero

Break-out or hidden nuclear arsenals Prohibition enforced by UN Security Council through sanctions and other means Individual (criminal) responsibility for violations Military response by non- nuclear means if other approaches fail Aim: To ensure that possession or threat of use of nuclear weapons is detrimental to the interests of the possessor, with no real benefit possible.

Prevent aggression and war Illegality of massive destruction/retaliation Myth of massive destruction/retaliation Alternatives to massive retaliation – Conventional forces including alliances – Cooperative security

Cooperative security Security between States is indivisible No State should enhance its security at the expense of the security of another State Resolution of conflicts through common institutions and mechanisms Promotion of democracy, human rights, environmental sustainability, good governance, non-discrimination and rule of law Use of negotiation, mediation, arbitration, adjudication and legal mechanisms Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe

Cooperative security – United Nations – European Union – Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe – International Tribunals – Other treaty bodies Economic and political power v military power Cooperative security institutions

United Nations Security Council International Court of Justice General Assembly Good offices of the UN Secretary-General

European Union Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 for facilitating reconciliation after two destructive wars, building cooperation between European countries and enhancing human rights, democracy and the role of law

Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe Building cooperative security through conflict resolution, border management, policing, military oversight, agreement monitoring, election monitoring, promotion of human rights (including minorities and women), prevention of human trafficking, facilitating economic cooperation, promoting good governance and the rule of law; Vital role in managing the Ukraine/Russia conflict

Other regional arrangements -NWFZs

Other proposed zones Middle East Arctic North East Asia Europe

International Tribunals Law of the Sea Tribunal International Court of Justice International Criminal Court Permanent Court of Arbitration Ad Hoc Tribunals: Yugoslavia and Rwanda Others – World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlements Body – International Court of Environmental Arbitration and Conciliation

Security in a nuclear-weapon-free world The roles of nuclear weapons as an inhibiter of great power aggression and as an equaliser for conventionally weaker powers are not able to be replaced by cooperative security frameworks as they currently exist. Enhanced security frameworks will be required to meet the conditions to establish a nuclear- weapon-free world that is more secure and stable than the current world. Nuclear weapons Nuclear weapons Security in a World without Nuclear Weapons: Visions and Challenges, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Dec 2013 We don’t need a new security framework to meet the conditions for a nuclear-weapon- free world. The UN already provides the architecture for this. Angela Kane UN High Rep for Disarmament, NY Oct 2013

Security in a nuclear-weapon-free world Nuclear weapons don’t make sense in the interconnected world of the 21 st Century. I am an American, but my financial institution is bank-rolled by China, my IT support comes from a call-in centre in India, I wear clothes made in Indonesia, I drink coffee from Brazil, I drive a car from Sweden that is fuelled by gas from Iraq (maybe soon from Iran). Our economy is built on global cooperation, as are our efforts to combat climate change, poverty, and other core security issues. There is no enemy to bomb with nuclear weapons – only other parts of our interconnected world. Jonathan Granoff, Global Security Institute A nuclear-weapon-free world does not necessarily mean a world free from war. However, the process of establishing a NWFW would eliminate some of the conflicts that stimulate war, and would further strengthen cooperative security mechanisms that can help prevent war. A de-nuclearized world would thus be more secure from threats of war than a world with nuclear weapons. Securing our Survival: The Case for a Nuclear Weapons Convention

Framework Forum NPT Review Conference: All States should make special efforts to build the framework for a nuclear-weapon-free world PNND/MPI Framework Forum: Building the framework for a nuclear-weapon-free world – Enhancing cooperative security – Discussing proposals for nuclear disarmament – Advancing nuclear disarmament negotiations Track two meetings, Berlin, Geneva, Vienna, New York