Inversion Towards Occupation A New Challenge to Israel’s National Security Concept January 2007

2 A New Challenge to National Security Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept Israel is in Strategic Inferiority Palestinians may not fight for end of occupation Israel’s policy towards Hamas has failed

Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept States and Organizations Military Victory, Deter State & End of Occupation Alliance with the Superpower Two-State Solution The Resistance Network Political – Strategy of Implosion Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? US Decline; Erosion of Israel’s Status in US One-State Enemy Logic IDF Palestinians USA Objective Israeli Strength Iranian Hegemony Anchor Security & Foreign Affairs Structure of the Political System Problem

4 Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06) Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) Ahmadinejad: “The Palestinian refugees will be able to return. The future of Palestine will be determined by referendum.” (11/29/06) The Strategy of Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Military Means De-Legitimize Promote 1SS Oppose 2SS Israeli Implosion Single Arab State in its place War Against Occupation Continuation of the Occupation Meshal: “If Hamas cannot protect the Palestinian people, let the PA go to hell… [Hamas] will not find it difficult to announce the dissolution of the PA and a return to ground zero: an occupied nation.” (3/19/06)

5 Inversion Towards Occupation Palestinians seek state (even PSPB) 1988 Palestinians oppose PSPB 2005 Palestinians seek state (even PSPB) 1988 Palestinians oppose occupation 1967 Inversion towards occupation? 2007 Palestinians oppose occupation 1967 Int'l community supports 2SS 1937 Inversion towards 2SS ? Int'l community supports 2SS 1937

6 > Military Logic: Increasing Control Political Logic: Ending Control Significance of the Inversion  Strategic Inferiority  Clash of Logics  Price  and Value   Ending Control Grows Distant Value Price Time

7 Meshal: “If the international community won’t face the challenge, Hamas will close the political chapter… and the PA will collapse.” (11/25/06) Hamas Accelerates the Inversion  Political Dead-End  Crisis of Palestinian Representation  Dismantling the PA 2SS Negotiation Unilateral

8 Policy Options  Turning the PA into an Address  Consolidating Separation  Promoting Palestinian Statehood

Corridor of difficult decisions Upgrading the PA 3 Demands + embargo No PA collapse Bypassing Hamas Hamas doesn’t fall / change PA collapses Hostile PA Damage Abu Mazen Deal with Fatah Confrontation ExposureObstruction Risks Palestinian State Battle with Hamas Policies vis-à-vis Hamas War against Hamas De-FactoDe-Jure Already exists Recogn- ition of IL PA collapses / terror Hamas wins Fatah disappoints

10 Address Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Exposure Obstruction Unity Gov’t Confrontation Civil War Allow it to Govern Fatah wins at least in the WB

Answers are Bubbling States and Organizations Military Victory, Deter State & End of Occupation Closeness with the Power Two-State Solution Resistance Network Political – Strategy of Implosion Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? US Decline One StateObjective Israeli Strength Iranian Hegemony Security & Foreign Affairs Political System Meridor Report “How to Break the Amoeba’s Bones?” Exposure or Confrontation Winograd Commission Economic Sanctions & Military Tools Regional Alliances Political Reform Palestinians Enemy Logic IDF USA Problem Anchor

12 Adaptive Challenge for National Security Technical Problem Known Semi-technical Problem Known Ron Heifetz “Leadership without Easy Answers" KnownUn-Known Adaptive Challenge Un-Known Problem Solution

13 Conclusions of the Reut Institute Israel is dealing with a new strategy: Continuation of occupation leads to Israel’s implosion Thus, the Palestinians do not want or cannot end the occupation The policy against Hamas has failed Allow a unity government to govern Confront Hamas in a Palestinian Civil War The Commissions of Inquiry are not enough The problem lies in the National Security Concept The relevant commission has yet to be formed