National Transfer Accounts: Brazil Cassio Turra & Bernardo Queiroz NTA Workshop Berkeley, January 15, 2005

What have we done? Turra (2000) applied Lee’s model to Brazilian data; generated labor income profiles ( ); collecting data on government expenditures from 1980 to 2000; historical data on school enrollment and percentage of population retired from 1960 to 2000;

DATA Census from IPUMS; PNAD (Household Survey) : labor income profiles, labor force participation, some info on transfers, household composition; POF and PPV (Consumer Expenditure Survey): 1973, 1986, 1996, 2002; Administrative data (Social Security Administration, Ministry of Education, etc.)

Social Expenditures

Social Expenditures in Brazil (%GNP) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Social Security Health Education

Social Security Expenditures and Retirement in Brazil

Brief History of the Pension System 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures made system more generous than before: index pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate rural workers; 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues. Demographic and actuarial side of pension system became central part of the debate; 1998: new methodology to compute pension benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined Benefit Program (transition period is very long).

Brief History of the Pension System 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures made system more generous than before: index pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate rural workers; 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues. Demographic and actuarial side of pension system became central part of the debate; 1998: new methodology to compute pension benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined Benefit Program (transition period is very long).

Retirees, Workers Enrolled, Labor Force and Retirees/Enrolled Ratio

Average Retirement Ages, Males,

Mean Pension Benefits and Income

Expenditures on Education

Health Expenditures

Next Steps (short term) Estimate private consumption in 1973, 1986, and 2003; estimate public transfer profiles to education and social security based on information collected; continue to collect data on government expenditures.

Some Questions How to create age profile for expenditures on health?; What should we include on education expenditures? How do we define the household head when not defined by the survey?