05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University1 Mark Jaccard Simon Fraser University Vancouver May, 2011 Solar Energy in Canada: Making It Happen.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Energy Efficiency – Australias National and International Approach James Shevlin Head, International and Strategies Department of the Environment and Heritage.
Advertisements

Grenada Sustainable Energy Plan Stakeholders Meeting April 5, 2002.
Regulatory and policy challenges for companies in a climate-constrained world economy Markku Ollikainen Professor of Environmental and Resource Economics.
Jan/2006Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU1 Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy Mark Jaccard School of Resource.
What Jobs in a low carbon economy ? February 2007 Transition to Low Carbon: impact on Competitiveness and Jobs The point of view of an European Oil.
James A. Slutz Assistant Secretary Office of Fossil Energy U.S. Department of Energy APEC Energy Trade and Investment Roundtable September 30 – October.
FOREST FUEL - RENEWABLE ENERGY. Renewable energy Today, renewable energy is an important part of the Swedish energy budget. With its share in the energy.
Darden School Social Responsibility and Entrepreneurship April 2, 2007 Recycling Energy: Profitably Mitigating Climate Change Tom Casten Chair, Recycled.
Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Financial Crisis Gail E. Tverberg Editor, The Oil Drum March 2009.
Carbon Price and the Energy Sector June 2011 Kane Thornton Director of Strategy & Operations.
Carbon, Capture And Storage. Capture and Storage  Not quite this simple:
Arnoud Kamerbeek CEO DELTA NV Dutch Energy Day 2015 Amsterdam, June 25th 2015 The decarbonisation of the power sector could and should be faster and cheaper.
Green investment scheme and climate change mitigation policy in Ukraine Stavchuk Iryna Climate change program coordinator National ecological centre of.
The Economics of Global Warming
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REGULATION AND POLICY-MAKING FOR AFRICA Module 14 Energy Efficiency Module 14: DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE 1 Dr. Robert K. Dixon Head, Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency.
Emerging sustainable energy technologies. Ferrybridge Power Station (Eric De Mare)
Charting the Upsurge in Hydropower Development 2015
EMPIRE- modelling the future European power system under different climate policies Asgeir Tomasgard, Christian Skar, Gerard Doorman, Bjørn H. Bakken,
ACTION PROPOSAL FOR FLYWHEEL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY Enhance future grid reliability, interoperability, & extreme event protection In 20 years, the flywheel.
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REGULATION AND POLICY-MAKING FOR AFRICA Module 13 Energy Efficiency Module 13: SUPPLY-SIDE MANAGEMENT.
Mark D. Levine Division Director Environmental Energy Technologies LBNL Workshop: Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions March 28 – 29, 2005 Issues.
Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?. Key Points Climate Protection requires a budget limit on cumulative GHG emissions. Efficiency, Renewable Electric,
Owen WILSON Environment and Sustainable Development Committee, EURELECTRIC POWER CHOICES EURELECTRIC Study on low-CO2 Europe by 2050 POWER CHOICES EURELECTRIC.
GUNNAR LORENZ HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS POWER CHOICES Pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by November 2009.
Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual.
To create a community driven informational user-guide that employers a region to achieve a high level of sustainability through shared resources, collaboration.
Energy Efficiency – The First Fuel The Danish Experience Jiangsu - May 21st 2015 Counsellor Christian van Maarschalkerweerd – Embassy of Denmark.
ESPON Project TERRITORIAL TRENDS OF ENERGY SERVICES AND NETWORKS AND TERRITORIAL IMPACT OF EU ENERGY POLICY Álvaro Martins/Luís Centeno CEEETA Research.
Economy Specific Research and Introduction of Successful Results of New / Renewable Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Toru Usami International.
The Economic Perspective Economists are not concerned with whether it exists, but whether/what should be done about it. Even though climate change exists,
1 Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Climate Policy in AIECE November 5, 2008 Olavi Rantala - Paavo Suni The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
Energy Technologies for the 21 st Century: The Role for Sustainable Energy—Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Clean Urban Transportation Deborah Lynn.
Econ Winter 2012: Professor Bushnell California’s Carbon Market: Choices and Challenges James Bushnell University of California at Davis.
9/2007Jaccard-Simon Fraser University1 Mark Jaccard School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University September, 2007 Canada’s Failed.
Swedish Energy Policy. Relative Energy Supply coal hydro wood oil nuclear new RES.
WBCSD EEB PROJECT Challenges Towards Achieving a Zero Net Energy Building Sector William Sisson, UTC, WBCSD EEB Co-chair Lafarge Briefing November, 2008.
A Year’s Progress and Promise for the Future. State Leadership Center for Climate Strategies.
Regulating Greenhouse Gases from Coal Power Plants Under the Clean Air Act Dallas Burtraw (RFF) Joshua Linn (RFF) Erin Mastrangelo (Maryland) USAEE/IAEE.
Misconceptions, Fears, Myths & Realities regarding Canada’s Climate Change Policies APEGGA Conference November 13, 2007 Pierre Alvarez.
Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations 41 rue du Four – Paris - France Celine MARCY, IDDRI Oliver Sartor.
Anni Podimata MEP Member, Committee on Industry, Research and Energy 8th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Budapest,
Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation UN Climate Change Conference June 2011 Bonn, Germany, 7.
EU Climate Change Policy Necessary Review of EU ETS Annette Loske IFIEC Energy Forum 23 February 2006 IFIEC EUROPE – International Federation of Industrial.
State and Business Action on Climate Change Judi Greenwald Director of Innovative Solutions Pew Center on Global Climate.
Tom TapperTransport 1 TRANSPORT Energy Demand Projections Tom Tapper 24 th February 2005.
European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Global Economic Prospects 2009: Commodity Markets at the Crossroads Nathalie.
Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.
Accelerating the transition to a low carbon emission society: reflections on the Canadian context James Meadowcroft Canada Research Chair in Governance.
NS4054 Fall Term 2015 North America Energy Trilemma.
AMBITIOUS TARGETS FOR ENERGY RD & D MEETING PLANETARY EMERGENCIES.
CECFEE workshop Policy Forum Climate Policies and development E. Somanathan.
European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II) Stakeholder Meeting 24 October 2005 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) ● Current Situation ● Possible role of.
U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for coal and electricity for National Coal Council November.
Stuck! Doing New Things in Old Organizations & The Challenge of Climate Change November 6 th, 2008 Rebecca Henderson, MIT.
Dutch presidency agenda on ensuring industrial competitiveness Erik Janssen, Ministry of Economic Affairs The Netherlands.
9 June, 2016 Energy policy in Germany – Towards a policy for sustainable and independent energy Eszter Pászti - Márkus Science and Technology Attachée.
Climate Policy and Green Tax Reform in Denmark Some conclusions from the 2009 report to the Danish Council of Environmental Economics Presentation to the.
What have been the main trends in oil consumption and production over the last 30 years?
Welcome Carol Berrigan Nuclear Energy Institute July 13, 2015.
Nuclear versus Coal plus CCS Bob van der Zwaan (ECN and Columbia University) with Massimo Tavoni (FEEM and Princeton University) International Energy Workshop.
THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN EUROPE THE BULGARIAN CONTEXT Milko Kovachev Chairman Bulgarian WEC Committee.
James L. Plummer, President, Climate Economics Foundation
LEVERAGING US EXPERIENCE: INDIA’s ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY ROAD MAP
Policy Instruments February 6, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy.
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Olesya Savchenko Ph.D. Candidate, Agricultural and Applied Economics
Coal – security of coal supply considerations of EURACOAL
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Presentation transcript:

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University1 Mark Jaccard Simon Fraser University Vancouver May, 2011 Solar Energy in Canada: Making It Happen

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University2 My activities and experiences in sustainable energy Professor of sustainable energy at Simon Fraser University since (Chair and CEO of BC Utilities Commission – 92-97) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (recently- special report on renewables) China Council on Environment and Development (recently – sustainable use of coal) Canada’s National Roundtable on Environment and Economy (recently – achieving 2050 national climate targets) Global Energy Assessment – head of sustainable energy policy (recently – prep for Rio+20 in 2012) Books on climate policy and sustainable energy (recently – developing book on energy sustainability delusions)

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University3 Good news for solar industry I. Humanity is going to need a lot of energy Exajoules400 EJ1200 EJ? II. Our energy system must dramatically reduce GHG emissions over the next few decades. III. Renewables in general and solar in particular are rapidly getting cheaper.

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University4 Bad news for solar industry - I Universal tendency for self-interest-related delusions – “solar will be fully competitive by 2000” 2010 – “by 2025 solar energy will have achieved market competitiveness and will no longer need government incentives.”

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University5 Ignoring fossil fuel future supplies and market dynamics Source: MIT Natural Gas Report

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University6 Ignoring the challenges to long payback investments We often see renewables advocates using simple financial analysis with low discount rates when estimating economic returns. Leading researchers label this “naïve financial analysis” because it ignores the extra risk of long payback investments, or what Pindyck (MIT) calls the extra “option value” of short payback investments. With extra risk, long payback investments have higher “expected cost” than naïve financial analysis suggests. Thus, it can be economically “rational” to avoid if possible long payback investments – like solar-electric and solar-thermal - relative to short payback investments – like a more efficient gas furnace. Consumers and firms intuitively know this, or they learn it from painful experiences.

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University7 Confusing coincident with dispatchable energy production Good news about solar is that its daily and seasonal peak electric or thermal output is coincident with hot season loads in electric and thermal demand. But this is not the same as dispatchable technologies that are virtually certain to be available to meet peak demands (for electric or thermal), so extra costs are required for back-up or storage. See Joskow (MIT) “Comparing the cost of intermittent and dispatchable electricity generation technologies.”

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University8 Bad news for solar industry - II Governments and the rest of us are good at deluding ourselves about climate targets and the effectiveness of climate policies. In 1997, Jean Chretien promised dramatic reductions in GHG emissions by 2010 and implemented policies that independent experts claimed would be ineffective. He was re-elected anyway. In 2007, Stephen Harper promised dramatic reductions in GHG emissions by 2020 and implemented policies that independent experts claimed would be ineffective. He was re-elected anyway. In 2017, expect new promises – along with more climate-related extreme events like floods, droughts, tornadoes, heat-waves, hurricanes, region-wide fires, and pest infestations.

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University9 Fossil fuel expansion belies climate promises It is quite simple to determine if governments are serious about promises to reduce GHG emissions significantly by 2050 – by 65% in the case of Canada’s government. Climate policy modelers simulate the global energy-environment system and calculate the time required to drive emissions down by significant levels and what must happen when. Models consistently show that expansion of oil sands is inconsistent with Canada’s 2050 target. In fact, oil sands must be gradually phased out – starting now! (Again, an MIT study provides a good recent example.)

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University10 Good news – bad news synthesis You have a critical role to play in preventing climate-change. But this role is not just to provide technology and business know- how. Equally important is to lobby for “effective” climate policy. For this, you cannot delude yourself about the competition from fossil fuels. You must not settle for continued modest subsidies. You must lobby strongly for the essential emissions pricing (tax or cap and trade) and regulations on equipment and buildings. This includes pressuring politicians directly as well as educating the public about the need for such policies (information, advertising, newspaper op-eds, videos, etc). It also means defending and promoting politicians who do the right thing.

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University11 A strategy for making solar happen Abandon delusion that solar can soon compete with fossil fuels for more than niche markets. This flawed strategy supports politicians who lack the courage or honesty to price GHG emissions. Lobby loudly for immediate emissions pricing across Canada. Lobby loudly for regulations requiring solar applications in new buildings that would be economic if emissions were priced today at $100 per tonne CO2 (under risk-honest “expected” cost analysis). Lobby loudly for regulations requiring solar retrofit applications in existing buildings at the time of renovation or ownership transfer. Lobby loudly for comparable regulations for industry, utilities, etc.

05/2011Jaccard-Simon Fraser University12 Conclusion Being the solar industry, you have every right to feel good about yourselves. You have combined your commercial interests with your society’s interests. This is a great place to be. But don’t allow this heady self-satisfaction to foster delusions that hinder you from playing the critical role that is needed. Remember that: 1.Fossil fuels are plentiful and thus likely to remain quite cheap. 2.Rational investment behavior avoids long paybacks. 3.To reduce GHG emissions, we need substantial emissions pricing and serious regulations now. 4.Politicians will not do this without pressure from you and others. Much better to feel good about yourselves in a winning cause than in a catastrophe you could have done much more to help avert.