California Energy Commission Customer-side Distributed Generation Impacts CED 2013 Preliminary Demand Analysis Working Group DG PUP June 6, 2013 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division /

Key Sources of Data Annual/Quarterly power plant reporting to CEC (Form CEC 1304) Emerging Renewables Program Self-Generation Incentive Program California Solar Initiative New Solar Homes Partnership POU PV (SB 1 Report to CEC) California Solar Initiative – Thermal California Energy Commission

Key Sources of Data DG incentive program EM&V reports o CSI 2010 Impact Evaluation (2007 – 2010) o SGIP 11 th Year Impact Evaluation (2002 – 2011) DOE/EIA PV cost projections developed for AEO 2013 CEC sponsored report on CHP market potential (ICF CHP Policy Analysis) California Energy Commission

Statewide Non-PV Energy Impact California Energy Commission

Statewide Non-PV Peak Impact California Energy Commission

Statewide PV Energy Impact California Energy Commission

Statewide PV Peak Impact California Energy Commission

Key Uncertainties NEM redesign Retail electric tariff redesign Federal Tax Credit CHP o Interconnection o Standby and departing load charges California Energy Commission 8

Statewide Onsite Use by Technology California Energy Commission

Statewide Onsite Use by Sector California Energy Commission

Statewide Non-Residential Onsite Use California Energy Commission

Statewide Onsite PV Use by Sector California Energy Commission

Statewide Onsite Non-PV Use by Sector California Energy Commission

2012 PV Installed Capacity by County and Sector (Top Ten) California Energy Commission

2012 Non-PV Installed Capacity by County and Sector (Top Ten) California Energy Commission

Statewide Onsite Use by Source California Energy Commission

2012 Onsite Use by Planning Area and Technology Type California Energy Commission

QFER CHP Report California Energy Commission

Average PV Installed Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission

Average Fuel Cell Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission

Average Microturbine Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission

Average IC Engine Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Residential Sector PV/SHW) Underlying structure similar to payback/cash flow model used by EIA/NREL Payback calculations based on system and maintenance costs, incentives, and fuel rates Estimated payback applied to a Bass Diffusion adoption curve Results for adoption differ by demand scenario since projected fuel rates and number of homes vary by scenario California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Residential Sector PV/SHW) PV system cost and performance data come from incentive program data and EIA’s AEO 2013 forecast report SHW system cost and performance data based on CSI Thermal program database and CPUC sponsored study Residential sector model output used for system sizing and valuing net surplus compensation California Energy Commission

Adoption Modeling California Energy Commission 25

Predictive Modeling (Non-Residential Sector PV) No predictive model Forecast based on trend analysis o Examine rate of growth in adoption based on DG incentive program data o Estimate growth and then estimated energy and peak impacts based on capacity/peak factors from DG EM&V reports California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Meeting onsite demand for power and two thermal end-uses: hot water and space heating CEUS survey data used to compile and summarize building electric and gas demand o ~ 2900 sites represented in survey o 12 Building Types o 4 Building Size Categories California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Use DrCEUS building energy use simulation tool o DrCEUS uses eQUEST building energy use software tool as a “front-end” to the more complex DOE 2.2 building energy use simulation tool which does the actual building energy demand simulation o Develop load shapes for CHP thermal analysis and economic modeling California Energy Commission

CEUS Site Electric Profile – School California Energy Commission North CoastalSouth Coastal

CEUS Site Electric Profile – College California Energy Commission South CoastalNorth Coastal

DrCEUS Analysis - Electric Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission

DrCEUS Analysis - Hot Water Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission

DrCEUS Analysis - Space Heating Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission

DrCEUS Analysis - Distribution of Annual End-Use Consumption by Fuel Type North Coastal - Large Buildings California Energy Commission

DrCEUS Analysis - Distribution of Annual End-Use Consumption by Fuel Type North Inland- Large Buildings California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) CEUS profiles are then benchmarked to QFER calibrated Commercial sector model output and floorspace projections Map CEUS site profiles to retail electric/gas tariffs Retail electric/gas tariff details escalated based electric/gas rate forecast developed for CED 2013 Preliminary California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) California Energy Commission Sample tariff detail

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Estimate gas cost for CHP prime mover o Start with daily border prices and add transportation component o Use Malin border price for PGE and Southern California Border for SCG/SDGE o Gas cost escalated based on recent EAO gas forecast report California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) CHP prime mover details come from CEC sponsored report conducted by ICF o Heat rate, installed cost, waste heat recovery, maintenance cost, etc o Use DrCEUS loadshapes and technology profiles to estimate impacts: generation, onsite use, export, and grid purchase California Energy Commission

Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Incorporate SGIP incentives and Federal tax credit for CHP Adoption modeling same as Residential sector PV/SHW model California Energy Commission

Next Steps Data updates Revise Residential Sector model o Incorporate retail rates o Use RASS survey to develop residential profiles similar to method used in profiling CEUS survey for commercial sector o Incorporate NEM benefits Finalize Non-Residential PV model California Energy Commission