EN 3 29/04/2015 © Astrium 1 The future role of satcom in civil aviation ATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Challenges for the air transport industry – 1 1) Capacity of overall ATM “system” limits air traffic growth: 2015: twice as many flights as in 1997 Already today: 30% of all delays due to capacity shortages Yearly cost for capacity-related delays: €6.3bn 2) Safety demands will rise with capacity increases: Despite air traffic growth: absolute number of incidents must be kept stable or even improved No additional airspace capacity without improved safety

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Challenges for the air transport industry – 2 3) Economic pressures leading to drive for efficiencies: Seat utilisation – Strongly linked to safety and security Minimisation of flight times, fast turnarounds – Maximise use of all resources (runways, terminals, airspace, ATC, spectrum….) Optimum routes Optimum flight levels 4) Security pressures cyclic depending on world political situation: On-board security Homeland security

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Cockpit services Cabin services ATC AOC AAC APC Classification of aircraft communications “AirComms” Air Traffic Control Airline Operational Communications Airline Administrative Communications Airline Passenger Communications

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Increasing confidentiality Increasing public responsibility Increasing integrity Lower transmission delay Lower message size/data volume Higher service cost Increasing likelihood of service Comparison of aircraft communications CockpitCabin ATS AOCAACAPC “Aircomms” Legend ATS - Air Traffic Services AOC - Airline Operational Comm’s AAC - Airline Administrative Comm’s APC - Airline Passenger Comm’s narrow-bandbroadband publicprivate safety relatednon-safety related all airlinesairline internal realtimen./a.“near-realtime” mass marketniche market “ATM comms” market success questionablestrong need “APC comms”

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Future importance of aircraft communications In the future, there will be more communications from and to the aircraft. Passenger communications To make flying more attractive, airlines will sooner or later offer: –Telephony (Voice, Fax, Modem,...) – , Internet –Multimedia, live TV,... Air Traffic Management To increase airspace capacity and safety, much more data communications will be needed, e.g. for: –Dependent surveillance methods –Collaborative decision making –Common information network –Airline operational communications

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Satcom for aviation Coverage Satellites are the only reasonable means to realise a seamless global coverage on all altitudes (incl. ground) Issues: High density areas, coverage for high latitudes Bandwidth APC: satellites are the only reasonable means to provide the bandwidth required ATM: Traditional communication means (e.g. VHF) are about to reach their capacity limits Cost Added value must be higher than cost

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Satcom in APC Today: Inmarsat and Iridium used (mainly for voice) High price, very low bit rate for modem connections Under development: Connexion, AFIS, Inmarsat IV Very hot topic until Sept. 11th 2001, “comeback” expected Future visions: “Internet in the sky” (e.g. , VPN) –Could become successful if price < 10€/flight (flat rate) Voice communications –Could become successful if price < 2€/min (=GSM incl. roaming) Entertainment, e.g. live TV –Success uncertain due to legal and market issues

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Suitability of APC satcom systems for ATM Bandwidth (+) –Bandwidth required for ATC, AOC (and AAC) is negligible compared to APC Probability of materialisation (-) –It is not yet certain whether dedicated APC satcom systems will materialise within the next 10 years Coverage (-) –All satcom systems for APC are GEO systems that do not provide coverage for high latitudes. Cost (-) –Reliability and availability requirements of ATM would lead to very high investments Service Mix (-) –Mixing safety related and non-safety related services has implications for certifiability

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Satcom in ATM Today, the following requirements for an ATM communications system are known: Permanent global availability, special weight on high-density areas Extremely high reliability Low data rate Often short response times “Party line” capabilities “Air-to-air” capabilities Ways to attack the cost issue: “Design-to-cost” Reasonable business concept on the other hand –Attractive service mix –Public involvement justified

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Satellite-based CNS Satellites allow integration of navigation and communications and thus (dependent) surveillance In the field of navigation, users have been quick to embrace satellite technology thanks to GPS –Galileo offers a model of the future – “compatible” with GPS, but providing design, operational and institutional redundancy (prerequisite for certifiability) together with better service quality Are similar models applicable to communications and surveillance? –Gate-to-gate communications and surveillance are both essential for accurate 4D trajectory based management –ATS communications traffic is only a small proportion of the total –Wide mix of public and private operators today The issues are complex and there are no easy answers! The cost-benefit ratio must be proven in high-density areas.

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Key to success? Many good technologies have come and gone and not been adopted; they have usually failed on: Transition planning – how to get from the old to the new Unproven benefit to cost ratio t oldnew transition Motto: “Evolutionary approach to a revolutionary system” Some lessons from history: The old and the new must be able to operate alongside each other A clear transition path from old to new must be mapped The new must offer clear benefits and be affordable Payback to the airlines for their investment must be within 2-3 years The solution must be global (European / U.S cooperation essential)

EN 3 29/04/2015 © Astrium 13 Backup slides

© Astrium ATN 2002 London, September 23 to 25, Integration of satellite navigation and communication Position determination Position reporting