Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends Policing operations & arrests SA’s crime profile: o Overall national.

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Presentation transcript:

Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends Policing operations & arrests SA’s crime profile: o Overall national trends o Curious provincial trends Worrying new trend (kidnapping) Concluding remarks Presentation Outline

SAPS and the crime stats …

Credibility of police crime statistics ?

International Business Report: Victim survey in South Africa (2007 – 2011) %

Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & % decrease Armed Robberies (Incidents) ,6% Burglaries (Incidents) % Armed Robberies (Financial loss) R19,36mR10,03m- 48% Burglary (Financial loss) R19,97mR10,07- 49% Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)

House robbery Business robbery Vehicle hijacking Vehicle theft Business burglary House burglary 4 – 21% (average decr) 19 – 28% (average decr) 19 – 31% (average decr) – 17% (average decr) 5 – 9% (average decr) 4 – 12% (average decr) South African Insurance Association (SAIA) (Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)

SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded 1994/95 – 2010/11

Murder & attempted murder trend 1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per )

Relationships & motives relating to murder Perpetrators known to victims Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc Relatives as perpetrators 80%60%20% Relationships Motives/Conditions Social behaviour (E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc) Criminal behaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc) Group behaviour (E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc) Other (E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc) 65%16%7%12% Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%

Aggravated robbery trend 1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per )

Trio crimes 2002/03 – 2010/11

Bank & Cash-In-Transit robberies Incidents from 1996/97 – 2010/11

ATM attacks/bombings 2004/05 – 2010/11

Scene at an ATM bombing

Residential & non-residential burglary (Rates per )

Commercial crime & shoplifting

Car Hijackings House Robberies Business Robberies 2003/04 – 2009/10 Att Murder Murder 1994/95 – 2009/ /04 – 2010/11 Police numbers Comparing the trends 2003/04 – 2010/11 Police budget (SA Rand in billions) (+49,2%) (+131,7%) Police numbers 2003/04 – 2010/11 Car Hijackings Att Murder Murder Assault GBH Assault Common 1994/95 – 2010/ / /11 (+44%)

Actions2007/082008/092009/102010/11% inc Roadblocks % Cordon & search % Stop & search % Vehicle patrols % Persons searched % Vehicles searched % Arrests2007/082008/092009/102010/11% Contact crimes % Aggravated robbery % Property & other serious crime % Crimes dep. on police action % Policing operations & arrests

Crime typeDetection rate (%) % cases court ready Conviction rate (%) Contact crimes (crimes against the person) 56,99%32,24% (new baseline) 23,78% Property-related crimes15,84%31,06% (new baseline) 24,50% Crimes dependent on police action98,53%28,41% (new baseline) 37,13% Murder26,57%28,95% (new baseline) 13,55% Aggravated robbery14,77%34,82% (new baseline) 11,40% House robbery18,99%-3,59% Business robbery18,83%-12,69% Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)

Average national & provincial crime ratios Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes) Illegal possession of firearms Drug related crimes Driving under the influence

National & provincial ratios: murder 2003/04 – 2010/11

National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11 26%

House robberyBusiness robbery National and provincial trends (Actual figures)

National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping ‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)

The Crime and Justice Hub (Institute for Security Studies) The Home Page of the Hub Part of the front page – some broad categories of topics covered For the maps, we advise to use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome search engines, but possible with Explorer 9 (just a bit more patience required!)

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.) (Institute for Security Studies)

This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct irrespective of population figures in a police station area The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.) (Institute for Security Studies)

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.) (Institute for Security Studies) This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct per capita

For Sandton, there is an increase in commercial crime as per the graph generated on the hub The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.) (Institute for Security Studies)

THANK YOU / DANKIE JOHAN BURGER Tel