The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University.

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Presentation transcript:

The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University

S.C. Total Employment (Millions)

S.C. Unemployment Rate

S.C. Aggregate Wages and Salaries by Sector ($ Millions)

S.C. Single Family Permits (number)

Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast Presented by: The Santee-Lynches Regional Workforce Investment Board & the BB&T Center at Coastal Carolina University

Santee-Lynches Gross Retail Sales ($Billions)

Santee-Lynches Net Taxable Sales ($Billions)

Santee-Lynches Employment

Santee-Lynches Labor Force Labor Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work

Santee-Lynches Unemployment Rate Number of Unemployed seeking work Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

Projected Timeline (key mgt. positions) (prod. leads) total here 1,600 total here Wages $33,000 avg. production wage $55,000 avg. overall wage

“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy is education, education, education.” Dr. JOHN S. BUTLER Professor, University of Texas

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2011 U6 Unemployment Rates for adults 25-and-older. U6 Rate measures the total unemployed, plus those employed part-time involuntarily, plus discouraged workers who have at least temporarily given up searching for work. Thus, U6 rates describe the real number of people in the U.S. who are feeling the effects of unemployment. U6 national rates applied to Santee-Lynches Region by COG calculation.

Source: Employment Security Commission UI Unique Claimants * Approximately 18.2% of UI claimants during the years didn’t provide educational attainment level on claimant form; therefore their data isn’t included here.

Source: SC Dept. of Education’s 8th grade enrollment totals and College Freshman Report. Percentage estimates are likely within 5% margin of error of true rate of cohort entry into postsecondary and the military directly after high school.

Santee-Lynches Single Family Permits

Santee-Lynches Single Family Permits – Value ($Millions)

Santee-Lynches Mfgd/Mobile Homes - Number

Santee-Lynches Non-Residential Permits – Number

Santee-Lynches Non-Residential Permits – Value ($Millions)

Forecast Summary Gross Retail Sales rising because of higher employment, income and inflation. High gas and food prices will still curtail discretionary spending to some extent. Employment improving more in 2012 and ’13, given pent-up demand, industrial expansions and other announcements creating more optimism. Educate and train workforce for 21 st Century jobs. Importance of post-secondary education. Fewer and fewer opportunities for low-skilled workers. Residential Construction still low. Nonresidential Construction improving.

Real GDP (Growth Rate)

CPI (Inflation Rate)

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Prime Rate

30-Year Mortgage Rate

10-Year Treasury Rate

3-Month Treasury Rate